UFC 224 Preview, Breakdown & Analysis

After two off weekends, the UFC is set to return this Saturday (May 12, 2018), when the octagon returns to Brazil with UFC 224 live on pay-per-view (PPV) from the Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro.

In the main event, women’s bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes will attempt to defend her title against Raquel Pennington. In the co-main event, former Strikeforce champion Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza will clash with Kelvin Gastelum in a middleweight bout.

Also on the main card, Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace Mackenzie Dern will take on Amanda Cooper. The event may not be the most stacked in terms of a UFC pay-per-view, but it nonetheless provides a mix of intriguing and fun fights for Brazilian fans.

Without further ado, let’s take a deeper look into UFC 224’s marquee fights:

Amanda Nunes vs. Raquel Pennington

UFC 224’s main event was rumored to be taking place late last year, but Pennington ended up suffering a leg injury. With both competitors now healthy, the 135-pound title is up for grabs.

Although she hasn’t competed since last September, Nunes has been on a roll as of late, winning six straight fights while defending her twice. She owns notable knockout victories over Miesha Tate and Ronda Rousey and has twice beaten Valentina Shevchenko.

Starting off on the feet, Nunes is without question one of the hardest hitters in the division. She’s physically strong and athletic while also being very aggressive, often looking to pressure her opponents, while also possessing high-level speed, power, and accuracy with her hands.

10 of her 15 professional victories have come by way of knockout and while she has improved her jab, her best weapon has been her right hand. She also likes to utilize strong leg kicks.

In terms of grappling, Nunes’ strength also aides her in this department. She typically does solid work in the clinch and has shown the ability to land the takedown from this position. At times, she has also been susceptible to the takedown, mostly when she tires, but her wrestling has improved nonetheless.

On the ground, Nunes is incredibly dangerous in the top position. She uses devastating ground-and-pound and has a knack for controlling her opponents. She’s also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and owns three submission victories.

Moving on to Pennington, the former The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) competitor has won four straight bouts including victories over Jessica Andrade, Bethe Correia, Elizabeth Phillips, and Tate.

Stylistically, Pennington is a solid athlete possessing a balanced and well-rounded skillset. On the feet, she uses a varied striking attack, often mixing up her punches and kicks well. She isn’t, however, known for being that powerful of a puncher, as she only has one knockout victory on her record.

In terms of grappling, Pennington’s wrestling is a bit underrated. She’s also quite skillful in the clinch and has shown, at times, strong submission skills as well. Three of her nine professional victories have come by way of submission, as she finished Raquel Pa’aluhi, Ashlee Evans-Smith, and Andrade with various chokes.

Ultimately, I feel as if Pennington is a bit overlooked. While there may not be one specific skill that pops up, she’s proven to be a well-versed fighter with her most recent victory over Tate being the most impressive of her career.

At the end of the day, however, I just don’t see a path to victory for her against Nunes and it’s unclear what type of form she’ll return in following the injury.

Prediction: Amanda Nunes def. Raquel Pennington via second-round TKO

Ronaldo Souza vs. Kelvin Gastelum

The co-main event at UFC 224 features a high-profile match-up between two middleweight contenders looking to inch closer to a title shot in a now wide-open division.

Souza recently got back into the win column with an impressive knockout victory over Derek Brunson in January. Prior to that, he had gone 2-2 in his last four, dropping losses to Yoel Romero and Robert Whittaker and picking up victories over Vitor Belfort and Tim Boetsch.

Stylistically, Souza’s bread and butter has always been his grappling, as he’s one of the very best submission artists the sport has ever seen. A sixth-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, 14 of his 25 professional victories have come via submission.

In terms of wrestling, Souza is quite creative with his takedown attempts, while also possessing strong takedown defense. In my opinion, his greatest advantage in this fight will come in the grappling department.

On the feet, Souza has improved in the department exponentially over the years. He’s aggressive and likes to push forward while utilizing a powerful right hand. Seven of his professional victories have come by way of knockout, but he as, at times, lacked the use of combinations. His chin has also come into question in recent fights.

Moving on to Gastelum, the TUF 17 winner is coming off of a devastating knockout victory over former champion Michael Bisping. Prior to that, he gone 2-1(1) in his previous four bouts.

On the feet, Gastelum, a former welterweight, is quite powerful, and that power has translated well up to 185 pounds. He moves seamlessly and has fast hands. Typically, he does his best work with the jab-cross combination, and as a southpaw, his straight left is very dangerous.

He also works solid leg and body kicks into his game at times.

In terms of grappling, Gastelum is a former state champion wrestler and he’s used his speed, movement, and power to effectively take down opponents in the past. And while he prefers to strike, Gastelum’s takedown defense has improved as well, although he has proven to be susceptible to takedowns by elite wrestlers in the past, specifically be seen in his 2017 fight with Chris Weidman.

Gastelum also possesses a brown belt from 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu and he has four submission victories to his credit. It’s safe to say, however, that his grappling is not on the level that Souza’s is – very few fighters’ is.

In this fight, I see the outcome depending on if “Jacare” can get the fight to the ground. On the feet, I slightly favor Gastelum and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him land some big shots. However, I expect the Brazilian to get the fight to the ground, where it’ll be his world.

Prediction: Ronaldo Souza def. Kelvin Gastelum via third-round submission

Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Bobby Cooper

In this man card fight breakdown, we have a battle between strawweights Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Bobby Cooper.

Dern, a highly decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu player, made her UFC debut earlier this year at UFC 22w, scoring a split decision victory over Ashley Yoder. Prior to that, she had compiled a 5-0 professional record with three of those victories coming by submission.

On the feet, Dern is extremely raw, which was seen in her UFC debut as she looked a bit uncomfortable from a distance. She did, however, show that she’s unafraid to engage. She also used solid pressure, although she was often winging punches, which left her wide open to be countered. But while she may not be the most technical, Dern is aggressive and throws powerful, heavy shots.

She also showed impressive skills in the clinch where she not only controlled her opponent and looked for the takedown but landed some impactful strikes as well.

And on the ground, it’s Dern’s glaring area of expertise so she’ll likely have the advantage in this department over most if not all of her opponents. She’s a multi-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion and simply a world-class grappler.

It’s important to note, however, that Dern is no longer training at The MMA Lab in Arizona where she trained prior to her UFC debut. It’s also important to note that she’s repeatedly said that she’ll be looking for the submission in this bout rather than looking to strike.

Cooper, meanwhile, is 3-3 in her professional mixed martial arts career and is coming off of a TKO victory over Angela Magana.

Judging by her last fight, Cooper obviously packs some power, but what’s most important to note in my opinion is that not only has she seemed to struggle against a bit more difficult competition but that all three of her losses have come via submission.

Given that Dern still has work to do in the striking department, she’ll have to be careful in this bout, as Cooper could see success there. However, Cooper’s grappling history is quite concerning in terms of this anticipated contest, and I’m just not sure she’ll be able to match up with a grappler like Dern.

Prediction: Mackenzie Dern def. Amanda Cooper via second-round submission