UFC 323 Betting Analysis: Joshua Van’s Knockout Odds Against Alexandre Pantoja
Joshua Van faces flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 323 on December 6, 2025, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The co-main event represents Van’s maiden opportunity to capture the UFC flyweight title, and betting markets reflect substantial interest in how the bout concludes.
Joshua Van Knockout Win Odds
Current moneyline odds position Pantoja as the clear favorite across major sportsbooks. The champion opens between -225 and -265 depending on the book. Van enters as the underdog with odds ranging from +175 to +200, translating to approximately 32.5% implied probability. See more at glorycasino365.com.
These odds have shifted incrementally since announcement, with opening odds in October showing Pantoja at -260 and Van at +220, indicating steady movement favoring the challenger. The most recent available lines show Pantoja at -225 to -265 with Van between +175 and +200.
Van’s knockout finish odds present a statistically unlikely outcome for the 24-year-old challenger. Van wins by TKO/KO is currently priced at +450 to +575 depending on the sportsbook, indicating 15% to 18% implied probability of a knockout victory. This contrasts sharply with Pantoja’s knockout finish odds of +750 to +850, suggesting similar underlying probability despite the champion being favored to finish by submission or decision.
Breaking down specific knockout scenarios by round, Van’s early stoppage odds are particularly unfavorable. Van by TKO/KO in round one carries odds of +1600 to +1900, with round two odds between +1900 and +2200. Third-round knockout odds for Van sit at +2200 to +2400, fourth round at +2500, and fifth round at +2700 to +3000, illustrating how progressively unlikely oddsmakers view later-round stoppages for the challenger.
Oddsmakers view Van’s path to victory through decision as more probable than knockout. Van winning by decision is listed at +450 to +500 across sportsbooks, representing 17% to 18% implied probability and significantly exceeding knockout odds. Van’s submission victory carries +3500 to +4000 odds, effectively dismissing this outcome given his defensive wrestling and submission defense profile.
The Myanmar-born fighter holds an 8-1 UFC record with seven knockouts, yet only two victories came via finish inside the octagon according to statistical analysis presented by fight analysts. Van’s most notable knockout came against Bruno Silva via ground and pound in the third round at UFC 317 in June 2025. Despite generating 8.86 significant strikes per minute, the division’s highest rate according to records, Van‘s finishes remain infrequent relative to his output volume.
The December 6 event timing at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas places UFC 323 as the final ESPN+ pay-per-view before the promotion transitions to Paramount+ in early 2026.
