UFC 321: Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern 2 – Vacant Strawweight Title Fight Preview
The vacant UFC strawweight title will be decided when Virna Jandiroba faces Mackenzie Dern in the co-main event of UFC 321 on October 25, 2025, at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. This matchup carries significant stakes as Zhang Weili has vacated her strawweight championship to pursue the flyweight title against Valentina Shevchenko at UFC 322.
With Zhang Weili’s decision to move up in weight, the strawweight division finds itself in transition. Both fighters represent the future of the 115-pound division, with Jandiroba currently ranked first in the standings and Dern positioned at fifth.
Betting Market Analysis
The betting market reflects the competitive nature of this matchup, with significant movement since odds opened on UFC betting sites. Jandiroba initially opened as a heavy favorite at -215, while Dern was priced at +164. Current odds show Jandiroba at approximately -120 with Dern around +112, representing a substantial shift toward the underdog.
This 28.2% movement in Dern’s favor suggests public backing for the American-Brazilian, possibly influenced by her previous victory over Jandiroba and her recent submission finishes. The tightening lines indicate professional handicappers view this as a closer contest than initially projected.
Method of victory betting typically favors submission outcomes given both fighters’ grappling backgrounds. The historical data shows Jandiroba has finished 14 of her 22 victories by submission, while Dern has submitted 8 of her 15 opponents.
This bout serves as a rematch from their December 2020 encounter at UFC 256, where Dern earned a unanimous decision victory in a three-round contest. All three judges scored the fight 29-28 in favor of Dern, though the contest was competitive throughout with both fighters showcasing their respective skill sets.
Jandiroba’s approach centers on her exceptional grappling credentials as a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu with additional training in Muay Thai and Judo. Her statistical profile reveals her as a takedown specialist, averaging 4.57 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 50% success rate. Her submission average of 3.3 per 15 minutes demonstrates her finishing ability once the fight reaches the ground.
Mackenzie Dern vs. Virna Jandiroba
The Brazilian’s striking has evolved considerably, with her recent performances showing increased confidence standing up. Her significant striking accuracy sits at 38% while absorbing 2.73 significant strikes per minute, indicating improved defensive awareness. Her 14 career submission victories include seven rear naked chokes and five armbars, highlighting her versatility in finishing positions.
Dern’s background as a world-champion Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner provides the foundation for her MMA success. Her submission skills remain elite level, with eight career submission victories in MMA, including three rear naked chokes, three armbars, and one historic kneebar finish.
Jandiroba’s current momentum appears stronger, having dominated Yan Xiaonan in her most recent performance. She controlled the fight through superior grappling, securing multiple takedowns and threatening submissions throughout the contest. Her submission victory over Amanda Lemos showcased her ability to finish elite competition, transitioning from back control to an armbar with seconds remaining in the second round.
Dern’s path has been more variable, though her recent victories demonstrate improved tactical awareness. Her rematch victory over Ribas required patience and technical precision, ultimately securing the armbar finish with just four seconds remaining in the third round.
The championship distance of five rounds favors Jandiroba’s conditioning, though both fighters have demonstrated the ability to maintain their submission threats throughout extended contests. The Abu Dhabi location, where Jandiroba previously competed, may provide slight environmental familiarity for the Brazilian.
This title fight represents a compelling matchup between two elite grapplers who have developed different paths to championship contention, with the winner establishing themselves as the new face of the strawweight division in the post-Zhang Weili era.
