Tallison Teixeira Opens as Heavy Favorite Over Tai Tuivasa
Heavyweight fan favorite Tai Tuivasa returns to home soil at UFC 325, taking on Brazilian prospect Tallison Teixeira in Sydney. The bout is set for January 31, 2026, at Qudos Bank Arena, with the main card airing on Paramount+. Tuivasa represents Australia in front of a local crowd, while Teixeira arrives as a ranked newcomer from Brazil.
Tai Tuivasa vs. Tallison Teixeira Odds
Oddsmakers have Teixeira as a clear favorite. Some books lists him around -340 with Tuivasa at +250 on the moneyline, implying a win probability of roughly 74% for Teixeira and 26% for Tuivasa before book margin. See more numbers and games at Yep casino.
Teixeira is 8–1 as a professional, with seven wins by knockout and one by submission; all eight wins have come in the first round. He holds a BJJ black belt, and multiple Brazilian jiu-jitsu titles, but in MMA he has made his name as a fast starter with finishing power. His UFC debut was a 35‑second stoppage of Justin Tafa that earned him a Performance of the Night bonus. His lone defeat came against Derrick Lewis, who stopped him in 35 seconds in July 2025 in a main event on ESPN.
Tuivasa, by contrast, brings long-term UFC experience but arrives in a slump. He is listed at 14–8 on recent cards and previews, with earlier profiles noting a 15–8 tally that includes his regional work. He has built his reputation on heavy hands, pressure, and his “shoey” celebration, but he has dropped five straight fights since 2022. His last win was a second‑round finish of Derrick Lewis at UFC 271 in February 2022. After that, he ran through a brutal schedule of top heavyweights and most recently lost a split decision to Jairzinho Rozenstruik in August 2024. Bookmakers and analysts still respect his power but view him as a high‑variance underdog.
The Brazilian is listed between 6’7″ and 6’8″ with an 83‑inch reach and a walk‑around weight near 258–263 lbs. Tuivasa stands about 6’2″ with a 75‑inch reach. That eight‑inch reach advantage shapes the tactical picture. Teixeira tends to work at range with straight punches and kicks, using his length to set up early knockouts while carrying jiu‑jitsu and clinch options if the fight shifts. Tuivasa, on the other hand, looks to close distance quickly, draw opponents into exchanges, and test their composure in the pocket. When he gets his kind of fight, he can end it in an instant. When he is forced to reset at range or defend takedowns, his effectiveness drops.
Teixeira’s finishing profile feeds the most popular betting angles on the favorite. With seven career knockouts, eight first‑round finishes, and five wins in under two minutes, bookmakers and tipsters expect his best chance to come by KO/TKO rather than on the cards
Tuivasa’s main betting case lies in the upset narrative. He hits as hard as any heavyweight and already owns a finish over the same man who stopped Teixeira, Derrick Lewis, at UFC 271. Some betting content points to that shared opponent, suggesting that Tuivasa’s power gives him a live chance at +250 or better despite the losing streak. For bettors chasing underdog value, the angle is simple: if Tuivasa survives the early minutes and drags Teixeira into wild exchanges, his power can flip the script.
Taken together, the market and available data point toward Tallison Teixeira as the statistical and stylistic favorite to win, most likely by knockout, with Tuivasa framed as a dangerous but out‑of‑form puncher whose clearest path is an early finish that upsets the odds.
