Karolina Kowalkiewicz a Major Underdog Against Julia Polastri
Julia Polastri and Karolina Kowalkiewicz will clash on October 11, 2025 at UFC Fight Night 261. This bout pits a rising Brazilian contender against a seasoned Polish veteran, with both seeking momentum in the deep strawweight division.
Julia Polastri vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Julia Polastri enters this fight as a clear favorite, with opening money-line odds of about -400 to win, while Karolina Kowalkiewicz opened at roughly +330. Since those initial lines were released on September 28, Polastri’s odds have ticked slightly in her favor, to around -420 at some books, reflecting bettors’ confidence in her youth and well‐rounded skill set. Play more numbers at luckygambler.com.
Kowalkiewicz, despite her veteran résumé, has seen her line move to about +350, indicating that she is viewed as the underdog but still a live dog if she can impose her pressure and experience.
Early lines suggest Polastri finishing by decision at around -120 or by submission at +250, whereas Kowalkiewicz by decision sits near +300 and by knockout around +450. These props have barely budged since opening, showing uncertainty about where the fight will end.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz is a 39-year-old Polish veteran and former KSW Flyweight champion. At 5’4″ and 115 lb, she combines a Muay Thai foundation with Krav Maga and relentless forward pressure. Kowalkiewicz has competed in dozens of professional bouts, while tying for the second-most fights in UFC women’s strawweight history.
A former title challenger against Joanna Jędrzejczyk, she brings veteran savvy, stout cardio, and a well-rounded skill set that includes powerful clinch work and solid ground defense.
Julia Polastri is a 27-year-old Brazilian standing 5’2” and weighing in at 115 lb. Fighting out of Team CWB, she utilizes an orthodox stance and blends high-pace striking with grappling. Polastri averages 5.57 significant strikes per minute with 55 percent accuracy, absorbs 5.31 strikes per minute, and boasts an 80 percent takedown success rate with 62 percent defense.
This matchup contrasts Polastri’s youth, volume striking, and takedown ability with Kowalkiewicz’s experience, pressure striking, and durability. Both fighters are hungry: Polastri aims to secure her first UFC win since joining the promotion, while Kowalkiewicz looks to reestablish herself after mixed recent results. The winner should break into the top 15, making this a pivotal clash with significant ranking implications.
Polastri can validate her status as a rising threat by dispatching a seasoned veteran, while Kowalkiewicz can prove that experience still beats youth when the pressure is on. With Polastri’s speed and wrestling vying against Kowalkiewicz’s iron will and clinch game, this encounter promises to be a tactical chess match.
