Fight Week Odds: Title Fight Rematch Mackenzie Dern vs. Virna Jandiroba for UFC 321 Strawweight Crown
UFC 321 features with a rematch for the vacant strawweight title as Mackenzie Dern meets Virna Jandiroba in Abu Dhabi. Their first encounter showcased contrasting grappling styles and left unanswered questions about who could control the fight on the mat. Jandiroba arrives with a proven track record of takedown efficiency and championship distance experience, while Dern brings elite jiu-jitsu transitions and improved striking to the Octagon. As both fighters seek the ultimate prize, their ground exchanges and submission attempts will determine who claims the strawweight crown.
Mackenzie Dern vs. Virna Jandiroba Odds
Bookmakers opened this UFC 321 co-main event as a clear favorite for Virna Jandiroba, but recent line movement suggests a tighter contest. Jandiroba initially held the betting edge at -215, while Dern was listed at +164. Current odds sit at approximately -120 for Jandiroba and +112 for Dern, reflecting a 28.2 percent swing toward the American-Brazilian challenger and indicating significant betting support for Dern’s chances. Check more numbers with NoLimit City Slots.
Jandiroba’s favorite tag stems from her elite grappling credentials. A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, she averages 4.57 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 50 percent success rate and has finished 14 of 22 career wins by submission. Her recent outing against Yan Xiaonan reinforced her ability to dictate where the fight takes place, as she controlled the bout through takedowns and submission threats, ultimately breaking Xiaonan’s rhythm in the championship rounds.
Dern, however, enters this rematch off the back of technical improvements in both striking and fight IQ. While her submission résumé includes eight MMA finishes, spanning rear-naked chokes, armbars and a kneebar, she has diversified her approach with more confidence in the stand-up game.
Dern’s significant striking accuracy is approximately 38 percent, and she absorbs 2.73 significant strikes per minute, suggesting an ability to survive and counter in striking exchanges. Her tactical patience was on full display during her most recent armbar finish.
Method-of-victory markets favor a submission outcome, given the competitors’ shared grappling backgrounds. A wagering outlook that emphasizes ground-based finishing potential aligns with Jandiroba’s 63.6 percent submission rate and Dern’s 53.3 percent submission ratio when fights go to the mat. While Jandiroba remains the betting favorite, the narrowing odds underscore growing confidence in Dern’s ability to neutralize Jandiroba’s takedown entries and impose her own ground attacks.
In terms of winner predictions, most sportsbooks list Jandiroba as a slight favorite, but sharp money has driven the lines for Dern toward near-evens. The margin is narrow enough that bettors are weighing Jandiroba’s consistent wrestling output against Dern’s high-level jiu-jitsu transitions once under hooks. Given the championship distance of five rounds, Jandiroba’s proven cardio and takedown volume give her the edge in wrestling exchanges, but Dern’s submission threat remains a constant equalizer.
In summary, Virna Jandiroba is positioned as the betting favorite at -120, while Mackenzie Dern is the underdog at +112 after significant market movement toward Dern’s camp. Submission is the most likely method of victory, reflecting both fighters’ grappling arsenals. The title is on the line in Abu Dhabi, and oddsmakers suggest a close battle where takedown volume and ground control will decide which elite grappler becomes the new UFC strawweight champion.
