Khamzat Chimaev Opened As The Betting Favorite But Dricus Du Plessis Sees Late Surge In Fight Week
The betting markets for the Dricus du Plessis versus Khamzat Chimaev UFC 319 middleweight championship bout has undergone interesting shifts over the past several months, with fight week bringing particularly notable movement that reveals how public and sharp money have evaluated this matchup.
UFC 319 Betting Odds
When the fight was initially announced, Khamzat Chimaev opened as a significant betting favorite. Du Plessis opened as the +165 underdog while Chimaev was listed at -190. Some sources indicate that early lines had Chimaev favored as heavily as -250, with du Plessis priced as high as +190. The betting market’s, including fortunica casino, initial respect for Chimaev’s undefeated record, his devastating first-round submission victory over Robert Whittaker, and his reputation as a future UFC champion.
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev
However, as fight week approached, the line experienced steady movement in favor of the defending champion. Current odds show Chimaev at approximately -220 to -250, while du Plessis has tightened to roughly +185 to +200. This represents a meaningful shift that suggests sharp money has been backing the South African champion. The movement indicates that professional bettors and those with deeper knowledge of the matchup see value in du Plessis at his opening odds.
While public money still leans toward Chimaev due to his highlight-reel finishes and undefeated record, the steady money coming in on du Plessis has tightened the spread considerably. This suggests that while casual bettors are attracted to Chimaev’s mystique, more sophisticated bettors see vulnerabilities in the challenger’s game, particularly regarding his cardio and his relative lack of experience in five-round championship fights.
Method of victory betting has also revealed interesting patterns throughout fight week. Chimaev winning by submission at UFC 319 in rounds one or two has been heavily bet, reflecting the consensus that if he wins, it will come early and violently, similar to his destruction of Whittaker. Conversely, du Plessis winning by decision has seen significant action, with odds ranging from +300 to +500 depending on the sportsbook. This prop bet has attracted sharp money from those who believe the champion’s superior conditioning and ability to weather early storms will allow him to outwork Chimaev in the later rounds.
The round total betting has also shown movement, with the under 2.5 rounds initially favored but the over gaining steam as fight week progressed. This shift suggests that more bettors are coming around to the possibility that du Plessis can survive Chimaev’s early assault and drag the fight into deeper waters where his superior gas tank becomes a decisive factor.
Interestingly, the “fight goes the distance” prop has become increasingly popular as a hedge bet. Initially priced around -110 to +130, this represents a middle-ground option for bettors who are unsure about the outcome but expect a competitive fight between two elite middleweights who may show mutual respect given the championship stakes.
While Chimaev remains the favorite based on his explosive grappling and finishing ability, the market has increasingly recognized du Plessis’s unique attributes. Fight week has seen the most concentrated movement, with the line continuing to tighten as fight night approaches.
