Jimmy Crute Remains Heavy Favorite Against Ivan Erslan

Jimmy Crute and Ivan Erslan meet in the co-main event of UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes on September 27, 2025, at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. Crute returns to his hometown crowd after a mixed run since 2023, while Erslan makes his promotional debut, aiming to deliver an upset and establish himself in the light heavyweight ranks.

Jimmy Crute vs. Ivan Erslan Odds

Jimmy Crute enters as the clear favorite to beat Ivan Erslan on the moneyline. Across major sportsbooks, such as Texas sports betting, Crute is priced around -185 (62% implied probability) while Erslan sits at about +154 (38%) to pull off the upset.

Method of victory markets show Crute’s submission game as the most likely finish. He is +250 to win by submission, reflecting his recent armbar stoppage and high-level grappling threat. Decision wins for Crute are priced at +450, and a knockout win sits at +250. Erslan’s most viable path is by knockout at +240, with decision and virtually no chance by submission at +2800, trailing well behind.

Odds have remained stable since opening. Line movement shows no shifts in the moneyline or props, suggesting bettors and bookmakers have rapidly agreed on Crute’s role as favorite and his submission ability in this matchup.

The stakes are clear. Crute needs a decisive victory to prove he still belongs among the UFC division’s rising stars after a hiatus and mixed results. Erslan aims to bring his knockout power to the world’s biggest MMA stage and secure immediate credibility.

Jimmy Crute is a 29-year-old Australian known for relentless forward pressure and a well-rounded skill set that blends striking and grappling. Standing 6’2″ with a 74-inch reach, he trains regularly in Bendigo under Sam Greco and BJJ coach Stewie Moulden, reconnecting with the team that developed him. A former Hex Fight Series champion, Crute has 13 UFC bouts on his resume, with ten stoppages

Ivan Erslan is a 33-year-old Croatian orthodox striker fighting out of American Top Team Zagreb. He also stands 6’2″ but sports a slightly shorter 72-inch reach. Erslan turned pro in 2015 after working as a pub bouncer and built his reputation in KSW, where he challenged twice for the light heavyweight title, earning a Fight of the Night for his five-round war with Ibragim Chuzhigaev.

Crute’s measured aggression and submission craft versus Erslan’s explosive striking and early. Anticipate a high pace battle that could end abruptly or turn into a gruelling duel. With both fighters carrying knockout threats every time they let their hands go.