Can Either Sean Strickland or Anthony Hernandez Get a Finish in their Upcoming UFC Match?
The February 22, 2026 UFC Houston main event between Sean Strickland and Anthony Hernandez presents a clash of styles, and betting markets suggest the fight will likely go the distance despite Hernandez’s reputation as a finisher.
Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez Odds
Anthony Hernandez enters as the betting favorite at around -245 to -278, with Strickland sitting as the underdog between +186 and +215 depending on the sportsbook. These moneyline odds reflect confidence in Hernandez’s grappling-heavy approach against Strickland’s volume striking. Check more numbers and games with free daily spins.
Hernandez brings an eight-fight winning streak into the contest, with 60% of his career victories coming via submission. The 32-year-old has finished opponents in six of his last eight fights, including rear-naked choke submissions of Roman Kopylov and Roman Dolidze. Bookmakers have priced his submission victory path at approximately +200 to +350 range based on similar recent fights.
However, Strickland’s defensive metrics complicate Hernandez’s finishing blueprint. The former middleweight champion maintains a 76% takedown defense rate and has demonstrated exceptional ability to scramble back to his feet when taken down. During both fights against Dricus Du Plessis, Strickland faced 13 takedown attempts with only seven successful, yet quickly returned to standing in nearly every instance. His bottom position percentage of just 1.14% ranks fifth-lowest in UFC middleweight history.
Strickland’s path to a finish appears even less probable based on recent form. While he holds a 54% career finish rate with 11 knockout victories, the 34-year-old has not stopped an opponent since July 2023. His last six fights have all reached the judges’ scorecards, with five going the full five-round championship distance. Strickland’s striking style prioritizes defense.
The betting market for total rounds remains unavailable for this specific matchup in current listings, but comparable fights provide context. When Hernandez faced Roman Dolidze, the over/under sat at 3.5 rounds with the “fight goes the distance” priced at +140, indicating bookmakers viewed a finish as more likely. That fight ended via fourth-round submission. For Strickland’s recent contests against elite competition, decision outcomes have been nearly guaranteed given his defensive striking.
The finish question ultimately hinges on whether Hernandez can impose his grappling game with enough frequency and control time to set up submissions or ground strikes. His 6.46 takedown average per 15 minutes represents legitimate threat volume, but Strickland’s proven ability to defend, scramble, and return to feet makes extended control periods unlikely.
