Why Is Henry Cejudo the Underdog Against Payton Talbott at UFC 323?
Henry Cejudo’s status as the underdog for his UFC 323 bout with Payton Talbott has sparked buzz among fight fans and analysts. Delving into the circumstances surrounding this matchup highlights the forces shaping the line: recent form and momentum
Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott Odds
As of fight week, reputable sportsbooks have Henry Cejudo listed as a +225 underdog, with Talbott as the -275 favorite to win their bantamweight fight. This gap is significant, particularly considering Cejudo’s credentials as a former two-division UFC champion and Olympic gold medalist. The odds with https://Lizaro.com/nz/ have been consistent throughout fight week.
Cejudo enters UFC 323 after a string of setbacks. Since his return from retirement in 2023, he has gone winless, compiling a three-fight losing streak. His last fight was a technical decision loss after an eye poke stopped his bout against Song Yadong. Losses to Merab Dvalishvili and Aljamain Sterling preceded that, showing difficulties adapting after his layoff and contributing to skepticism about his form.
Cejudo’s age (38) is another consideration. Lighter weight classes tend to favor youth and athleticism, and the impact of years spent in high-level competition can be felt more sharply against rising talents like Talbott. Talbott, at just 27, is tall for bantamweight at 5’10” with a reach listed around 70 inches, compared to Cejudo’s 5’4” frame and 67–68 inch reach.
Talbott rebounded from his first loss (a decision against Raoni Barcelos) with a solid win over Felipe Lima. Previously, he scored finishes in rapid fashion, most memorably a 19-second KO of Yanis Ghemmouri. His youth, trajectory, and lack of mileage compared to Cejudo’s wear and tear contribute to bettors viewing him as more likely to impose his game over three rounds.
Cejudo’s key to victory is his wrestling, historically among the best in the sport. If he can consistently close distance, secure takedowns, and control Talbott on the mat, the fight could swing in his favor. However, Talbott’s recent improvements in takedown defense and scrambling, combined with his reach and power, complicate this path. If Talbott can keep the bout standing or punish Cejudo on failed entries, analysts expect Talbott to win the striking exchanges.
The combination of Cejudo’s recent form, age, and slide in output against a fresher, longer, and more active Talbott has resulted in Cejudo’s rare entry as a substantial underdog. While some experts highlight pathways for a Cejudo upset, primarily through wrestling and experience, the consensus points toward Talbott getting his hand raised if he can keep the fight standing and avoid Cejudo’s grappling for long stretches. Although Cejudo might make a great underdog bet.
