Paddy Pimblett’s Submission Odds Against Gaethje: Minimal Movement from Opening to Fight Week
The betting markets have consistently highlighted submission as Paddy Pimblett’s most likely path to victory against Justin Gaethje at UFC 324. With the interim lightweight title on the line Saturday night at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Pimblett’s submission odds have remained relatively stable throughout the fight’s promotional cycle.
Paddy Pimblett’s Submission Odds Against Justin Gaethje: How the Line Has Moved for UFC 324
Across major sportsbooks on fight week, Pimblett’s odds to win by submission range from +100 to +140. Some books lists the Liverpool fighter at +120 to secure a tap-out finish, while others offers the best value at +140. British bookmakers have Pimblett’s submission odds at 31/20 (equivalent to approximately +155 in American odds), and Betfair places the prop at 13/10. Others mirror these figures at 13/10, check out more games and numbers with Rocketplay online casino.
The line movement tells a story of market stability. When UFC 324 was announced in late December, Pimblett opened as a -185 favorite on the moneyline, with Gaethje at +160. Those overall fight odds have since shifted slightly, with Pimblett moving to -235 and Gaethje to +190 as of January 23. However, the submission-specific prop has experienced minimal fluctuation. Analysts tracking betting patterns note that while the main event odds saw a brief spike favoring Gaethje on November 27—when his line dropped to +168 and Pimblett’s extended to -205, the odds quickly returned to their original trajectory.
This consistency in submission pricing reflects a consensus among oddsmakers and bettors. Pimblett averages 1.7 submissions per 15 minutes in the Octagon, and 10 of his 23 career wins have come via tap-out. His recent run includes a first-round rear-naked choke of King Green and a third-round TKO of Michael Chandler, demonstrating diverse finishing ability. Gaethje, meanwhile, has been submitted in two of his five career losses, falling to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira, exposing a vulnerability in prolonged grappling exchanges.
Several betting experts have identified submission as the value play. Some experts recommend Pimblett by submission as their best bet recommendation at +140, noting that Gaethje typically avoids wrestling exchanges despite his strong amateur background.
The fight-week odds have held firm despite Gaethje’s 68% takedown defense and veteran experience in five-round championship fights. Pimblett’s three-inch reach advantage and his ability to force chaotic scrambles where his submission game thrives have kept the submission prop odds in the +100 to +155 range across the board. With the fight less than 24 hours away, no significant late money has caused sharp line movement on this specific prop, suggesting the market views Pimblett’s submission threat as accurately priced rather than offering overlooked value.
From opening lines in late December to fight week in late January, Pimblett’s submission odds have remained within a narrow 40-point band, reflecting a rare moment of consensus in MMA betting markets about the most likely finish method.
