Fight Week Odds: Bryce Mitchell vs. Said Nurmagomedov
As of fight week for UFC Abu Dhabi, July 26, 2025, the matchup between Bryce Mitchell and Said Nurmagomedov is one of the most closely contested on the card, at least in the eyes of oddsmakers.
Bryce Mitchell vs. Said Nurmagomedov – UFC Fight Week Odds
Across most major betting sites, such as 7bet, Bryce Mitchell is a very slight favorite, with odds typically hovering between -115 to -135 for Mitchell and around +102 to +110 for Nurmagomedov. Translation: you’d need to bet a little more on Mitchell to win $100 (for example, $122 to win $100 at -122 odds), and a $100 bet on Nurmagomedov would yield roughly the same amount if he wins.
There hasn’t been a major movement in the odds since the lines opened. Mitchell has generally retained a slim edge, with the market showing respect for his wrestling pedigree and previous UFC accomplishments, but uncertainty from his recent losses has kept the gap narrow. Betting interest throughout fight week has seen Mitchell’s odds occasionally tighten, but the market remains steady overall, suggesting bettors are split and sportsbooks are comfortable with their positions.
Many analysts and oddsmakers rate Nurmagomedov by submission as his most dangerous weapon, given Mitchell’s recent defeats by submission and Nurmagomedov’s history with chokes. You can find odds suggesting this is a realistic outcome, and several experts have even picked it as the likeliest finish. Mitchell by decision presents one of the lower payouts for method, reflecting the view that his best path is via control and points rather than a finish. Odds sit around +140 for Mitchell by decision.
The over/under is set at 2.5 rounds with the under at approximately +120. This reflects some expectation that the fight could end before a decision, likely by submission, especially given both fighters’ recent track records of early finishes or losses. Most betting markets suggest the bout is likely to go at least into the second round, but there’s a fair chance it ends before the final bell. Oddsmakers give a slight lean to the fight finishing under 2.5 rounds, banking on either Nurmagomedov’s submissions or Mitchell’s ground dominance leading to an early finish.
Although the odds are tight, Mitchell is the favorite by a thin margin. That said, Nurmagomedov is seen as a dangerous live underdog, with his movement, striking, and especially his submission skills posing a big risk to Mitchell if the fight hits the mat and gets scrambly.
This is one of the most evenly matched fights of the week. The betting markets are pretty much split, with Bryce Mitchell holding a tiny edge.
