Follow along as we breakdown, predict and hopefully make some money on the UFC 257 main event.
Former dual weight champion Conor McGregor will look to propel himself back into lightweight title contention this Saturday. He’ll take on one-time interim champ Dustin Poirier in an eagerly anticipated rematch.
McGregor and Poirier previously fought at UFC 178 in 2014. On that night, it was the Irishman who emerged victorious. After a bitter build up ‘Mystic Mac’ stayed true to his prediction and knocked out Poirier inside one round.
In the build-up to UFC 257, McGregor and Poirier have been much more friendly to each other. ‘Notorious’ has even pledged $500,000 to Poirier’s charity but that hasn’t stopped him from predicting he’ll finish the fight inside 60 seconds.
The Irishman is a huge betting favourite heading into this fight at -333. McGregor’s odds are exaggerated but explainable considering he is the biggest draw in MMA history and has previously wiped out his UFC 257 opponent inside 90 seconds.
Unfortunately, a straight bet on McGregor to win is unwise for a couple of reasons. Firstly, you’d have to put down a serious bit of money to see any type of return, a move we’d advise against in a fight this competitive. Next, McGregor has won all but two of his UFC bouts inside the distance. It appears likely that if he gets it done in Abu Dhabi tomorrow it will be by finish rather than the judges’ scorecards.
McGregor is priced at -200 to get the finish by any method. This gives punters a bit more value if they are betting on the former double champ.
In order to get truly decent odds on McGregor to win you are going to have to pick the round, he gets this done. ‘Notorious’ has predicted a first-round finish and the bookmakers fancy him to get it done – this is proved by them offering odds of +160. As the rounds go on the odds increase on McGregor stopping Poirier. He’s clearly most dangerous early. So, keep an eye on round two at odds of +375 too.
Ultimately, we’d say if you are looking to profit without taking big risk, bet on McGregor and pick the round. It may seem a long shot but with these odds, it’s best to avoid a straight bet on the Irishman.
‘The Diamond’ enters this fight a sizeable +250 underdog who we imagine will be backed in before the bout starts. Poirier has been competing and winning at the top level consistently for the past few years. McGregor has rarely competed inside the Octagon during that time. So, to see Poirier such a big underdog is surprising and borderline disrespectful.
The former interim lightweight champion has several ways he can win this fight which contrasts with his opponent who is looking for the knockout.
Poirier is very capable of scoring a finish in this fight and it could come on the feet or with a submission. ‘The Diamond’ has power and ground skills that could allow him to stop McGregor. What makes this bet even more appealing is the odds. Poirier is +450 to get the finish by any method. Despite what the odds may suggest this is fairly likely IF he is able to survive the early onslaught from McGregor.
‘The Diamond’ is also capable of getting this one done over five rounds. As we saw in his last fight Poirier tends to get stronger as the fight progresses and is more than capable of outlasting elite level lightweights over five rounds. If you fancy him to do this against McGregor you can get odds of +650.
In conclusion, we think this is a much closer fight than the bookmakers. However, we are still betting on McGregor to win at UFC 257.
‘Notorious’ has already beaten Poirier before – easily. Both men have changed over time, but the fundamentals of this fight haven’t. McGregor remains the biggest puncher at 155lbs and Poirier is very hittable.
In our opinion, Poirier will not be able to survive the early attack of McGregor and will ultimately fall to a quick knockout loss in either the first or second round.
Do you agree? Will Conor McGregor knock out Dustin Poirier at UFC 257?