Aspinall vs Gane – An Early Look Ahead
While the hotly anticipated UFC bout between heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall and the legendary Jon Jones may have fallen by the wayside, the former will now defend his title against perennial contender Ciryl Gane.
Gane is a former interim champion at the weight, although his two previous world title tilts ended in defeats to Jones and Francis Ngannou.
Aspinall is the younger and bigger man, and will start the bout in Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Arena as the heavy betting favourite. But what’s the true tale of the tape, and can Gane win the heavyweight title at the third attempt?
TOM ASPINALL KNOCKED OUT SERGEI PAVLOVICH TO BECOME THE NEW INTERIM UFC HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPION!!! 🇬🇧 🏆#UFC295 pic.twitter.com/ZxfTwbf3gp
— UFC on TNT Sports (@ufcontnt) November 12, 2023
Aspinall vs Gane in Numbers
Pre-fight betting odds certainly reaffirm Aspinall’s status as favourite, with the Brit currently priced at 2/7 to make a second successful title defence. Conversely, Frenchman Gane is priced at a distant 5/2. It’s therefore hard to see how Gane can defeat Aspinall in October. Many bettors might then seek to build an accumulator ahead of UFC 321 to achieve superior bet value, using tools like an acca calculator for working out final odds and returns.
But the current betting odds aren’t the only statistics we can use to make judgements on athletes’ performance. In terms of career records, Aspinall has a career record of 15-3-0, although he has won eight of nine bouts in the UFC (88.8%). What’s more, his sole defeat to Curtis Blaydes saw Aspinall retire after succumbing to a freak knee injury.
As for Gane, he has compiled an MMA career record of 13-2-0. However, his two defeats have come in his previous five bouts, as Ngannou overpowered him in the clinch over five rounds and Jones submitted him in the first round of their world title clash.
Superior Striking and Grappling – How Aspinall Holds the Edge
Even if you disregard Gane’s previous failings at elite world level, he’s arguably outmatched by Aspinall when it comes to both striking and grappling. For example, the defending champion lands an impressive 8.07 significant strikes per minute in the UFC (compared to just 5.26 for Gane).
Although Aspinall also absorbs slightly more significant strikes per minute (2.89 vs 2.23), he boasts an exceptional chin and a considerably higher knockout percentage (80% vs 46%).
Although Gane is a competent grappler, his takedown average of just 0.7 compares poorly to Aspinall’s (3.27). The powerful Aspinall also boasts a submission average of 1.63 (per 15 minutes), while his takedown defence of 100% means that he’s incredibly hard to take to the floor.
Gane can also be a little sloppy in his grappling, with just 25% takedown accuracy. Aspinall could exploit this with his accuracy and volume of punches, which make him a tough challenge for any heavyweight fighter.
The Bottom Line
These different ways of quantifying success might get confusing for some, but they ultimately tell the same story. To all outward appearances, it remains the case where Aspinall seems to have the upper hand against Gane at this stage.
