UFC Fight Night Betting Guide: Why the Market Is Backing Arnold Allen Over Melquizael Costa
Arnold Allen faces Melquizael Costa in the main event at UFC Fight Night on May 16, 2026, at the Apex in Las Vegas. The featherweight bout headlines the card, with prelims starting at 6 p.m. ET and main card at 9 p.m. ET. Allen enters with a 20-4 record, including 7 KOs, 4 submissions, and 9 decisions. Costa carries a 26-7 mark, with 9 KOs and 8 submissions.
Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa Odds
Odds opened with Allen at -150 and Costa at +130. Lines shifted to favor Allen more, now at -160 to -190 for Allen and +140 to +165 for Costa across books, including wise bettors who use Bd casino site as a starting point Method bets list Allen by points at 1.67-2.50, KO/TKO or sub at 3.60, and Costa by points at 3.00-4.50 or finish at 4.33. Fight distance over 4.5 rounds trades at 1.57-1.67, under at 2.05-2.20. Prediction markets give Allen 59-60% win probability.
Allen holds the edge in experience against top-15 foes, outstriking Holloway and Evloev despite losses. Path to victory tilts to Allen’s pace. He won nine straight UFC bouts before 2023 setbacks, rebounding with Chikadze. Costa’s underdog price reflects Allen’s striking edge: 3.47 landed vs. opponents’ lower output. Round props favor Allen late, at 17.00-23.00 for rounds 3-5. Costa by decision at 4.50 offers value if he grinds. Total volume projects 140-160 significant strikes combined.
Allen, a southpaw from England at 5’8″ with a 70-inch reach, lands 3.47 significant strikes per minute at 42% accuracy and defends 60% of strikes. His takedown average sits at 0.86 per 15 minutes with 47% accuracy and 71% defense. Recent form shows a unanimous decision loss to Jean Silva on Jan. 24, 2026, after a win over Giga Chikadze in July 2024. He stopped Calvin Kattar via knee injury in 2022 and Dan Hooker with punches that year. osta, at 5’10”, averages shorter fights at 9:11, with a 7-2 UFC record: 2 KOs, 2 subs, 3 decisions. Details on his latest UFC wins remain sparse, but he has shown finishing power.
In betting terms, this matchup sets up as a classic “trusted favorite versus live underdog” spot, with Allen’s deeper resume and five-round seasoning stacked against Costa’s higher-risk, higher-reward style. Allen’s growing moneyline edge lines up with his proven durability and output over 25 minutes, making the decision props and over 4.5 rounds the clearest angles for bettors who expect his pace and experience to tell over time.
Costa’s finishing clip and shorter average fight time still give him upset potential, especially early, so his KO or decision prices will appeal to those chasing volatility rather than stability. As the week closes, the market expects Allen to reassert himself in the featherweight mix with a steady, scorecard-driven win, but the odds leave just enough daylight for anyone who believes Costa can turn this main event into the kind of chaotic fight that punishes conservative tickets.
