Odds Predict Francis Ngannou Gets a First Round Knockout for Netflix Match
Francis Ngannou steps back into the cage for his first MMA bout in over 20 months when he collides with Philipe Lins on May 16 at Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California, as the co-main event of MVP MMA’s Netflix showcase. Bookmakers have installed “The Predator” as an overwhelming favorite heading into the heavyweight tilt, with his odds moving from -1408 in late March to -1400 by mid-May.
Lins, a 40-year-old Brazilian, represents the underdog at +750 to +850 odds found on places such as a popular UK sports site. The PFL’s 2018 heavyweight tournament winner last competed in March 2024, earning a unanimous decision over Ion Cutelaba. Lins holds an 18-5 record with 13 finishes across his victories, but the knockout has been problematic for him defensively. Four of his five defeats came by knockout, including a first-round finish at the hands of Tanner Boser in 2020. Most of his recent career unfolded at light heavyweight, where he posted a 4-0 mark before dropping both heavyweight bouts in the UFC.
Method-wise, predictive odds favor Ngannou to win by early stoppage. Betting markets suggest a first-round victory is likely, with Ngannou priced at 1/5 odds to finish between rounds one and three, while prop bets on a knockout finish hover around 8% probability when calculating all potential outcomes. Lins finds himself listed at 12/1 odds to force an upset inside three rounds and +750 to +850 to win outright, implying roughly a 10.5% implied probability of pulling off the upset.
Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins Odds
While Lins operates as a competent striker with serviceable grappling, the gap widens when factoring Ngannou’s track record against elite competition. Ngannou stopped many of the heavyweights considered among the sport’s best, whereas Lins’ four knockout losses suggest vulnerability against heavy hitters. The two-year layoff affects both fighters, but Ngannou’s dominant performance against Ferreira carries more weight than Lins’ victory over a lower-ranked opponent.
Ngannou enters the contest riding a knockout victory over Renan Ferreira in October 2024 under the PFL banner, his first MMA appearance following brief stops in professional boxing against Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua. The Cameroonian heavyweight carries a 72% stoppage ratio across his career, having finished 13 of his 18 wins by knockout or TKO. His last five victories all came by knockout, with eight of his final ten wins ending inside two minutes of the opening round. In the UFC, Ngannou compiled a 12-1 knockout record while securing the heavyweight championship by demolishing Stipe Miocic in just 52 seconds of round two.
