UFC 328 Fight Week Odds: Khamzat Chimaev Remains Heavy Favorite
UFC 328 fight week has fighters and fans paying close attention to the middleweight title bout. Khamzat Chimaev defends his belt against Sean Strickland on May 9 at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The two have traded insults online for weeks, with extra security on hand during press events.
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland Odds
Chimaev sits as a heavy favorite at -535 with experts such as TipsGG prediction models, which gives him about an 84% chance to win. Strickland comes in at +400, meaning a $100 bet pays out $400 profit if he pulls the upset. Lines opened around -400 for Chimaev and +300 for Strickland back in February or March. They tightened over time, with Chimaev reaching -600 at points before settling near -550 as fight week started.
Bettors shifted the lines after Strickland’s recent TKO win over Anthony Hernandez, where he closed as an underdog. Early posts in March showed Chimaev at -425 to -490. Public money went heavy on the champion, pushing his odds shorter by late April. Some sharp action on Strickland kept his price from ballooning past +500, landing at +400 now.
Chimaev by submission lists around -105 to +225 across books. His decision win pays +300, while KO/TKO sits at +350. Strickland’s path favors decision at +413 to +850 implied odds. A KO/TKO for him runs longer at +950 or so. The fight going the distance pays even money near +100 in spots.
UFC 328
Chimaev enters 15-0 overall, 9-0 in UFC, after taking the title from Dricus du Plessis at UFC 319 with 529 strikes and 12 takedowns. He beat Robert Whittaker by face crank earlier. Strickland sits 30-7, having upset Israel Adesanya as a +540 dog to grab the belt before. He stuffs 76% of takedowns in UFC and just handled Hernandez.
Volume on Chimaev holds steady, but Strickland draws sharp interest for value in decisions. Round props favor Chimaev early, with Round 1 shortest, then lengthening. Over $65,000 traded in prediction markets by late April, with Chimaev at 80% implied.
Khamzat Chimaev built his wrestling base in Sweden picking up national titles. In the UFC, he averages 6.38 takedowns per 15 minutes, landing 52% while controlling opponents for over five minutes on average. That pressure overwhelmed Dricus du Plessis with 12 takedowns in their title fight and broke Robert Whittaker via face crank. Defenses hit 94% against strikers, letting him dictate pace and smother volume punchers like Strickland.
The winner earns the middleweight championship while the loser eyes contender status. Chimaev pushes forward with wrestling and finishes, while Strickland uses jab, footwork, and volume to go long. Their past training sessions fuel the trash talk, with each claiming wins in sparring. A five-round test could expose cardio limits for the champ if it drags past round two.
