UFC 290 Preview: Alexander Volkanovski vs Yair Rodriguez

One of the most hotly-anticipated contests in the Ultimate Fighting Championship this year is the featherweight title bout between Australian champion Alexander Volkanovski and his Mexican challenger Yair Rodriguez. Neither fighter has been seen in the Octagon since UFC 284, a thrilling night which saw Volkanovski lose his lightweight title to Islam Makhachev via a unanimous decision. Rodriguez, on the other hand, won his matchup against Josh Emmett in a 2^nd round submission victory. 

The Bookmakers View

The major bookmakers are currently only offering MMA odds for the headline fight at UFC 290, with Volkanovski currently being seen as the heavy favorite. The champions opening price of 1/5 has now dropped to 2/9, whilst opponent Rodriguez was initially priced at 33/10 before increasing slightly to 13/4. It seems likely that we will continue to see movement between now and the big night on Saturday 8^th July, but in which direction? 

For some, it’s almost a given that the champion will retain his title at UFC 290. It’s far from a done deal, however, and some pundits are predicting we could see a major upset here despite the bookmakers giving Rodriguez just a 21% chance of victory according to their opening prices. For those who enjoy betting on mixed martial arts, there’s a great deal of evidence to examine regarding both of these fighters – let’s take a look.

Volkanovski vs Rodriguez: Tale of the Tape

Prior to UFC 290, Alexander Volkanovski has scored 25 victories during the course of his professional career. Twelve of those wins resulted from knockouts, with another three coming by way of submission. The Australian fighter has only lost two fights during this time, and has zero draws to report on. His opponent, Yair Rodriguez, is a less experienced fighter with 15 wins (including five knockouts and four submissions) alongside three losses and zero draws. 

These statistics indicate that the champion has a notable power advantage over the challenger; this is suggested by his 48% knock out percentage in contrast to the 33% rating of Mexican fighter Rodriguez. Whilst Vokanovski is the older of the two men by four years, he’s still only 34 years of age. Meanwhile, Rodriguez has a five-inch height advantage over Volkanovski, but this does not translate into an advantage in reach as the latter is recorded as having a one-inch advantage in this all-important area. 

Despite Volkanovski being the older and more experienced fighter of the pair, Rodriguez has actually been fighting professionally for slightly longer than his opponent. This translates into a significant gap in the number of professional rounds fought between the two fighters, with Rodriguez recording just 47 rounds in contrast to 76 by Volkanovski. 

Recent Fight Records

Featherweight champion Volkanovski has won four out of his last five professional bouts, but only one of those victories resulted from a stoppage with the remaining three going to the judges. His single loss during this period was a lightweight championship battle against Islam Makhachev which took place at UFC 284 on the 11^th of February 2023. That right resulted in a unanimous decision, just as his previous matchup against Max Holloway at UFC 276. Prior to that, Volkanovski had beaten Chan Sung Jung at UFC 273 with a fourth round knockout victory at Florida’s VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena on 9^th April 2022.

Challenger Yair Rodriguez has scored three victories during his last five fights including a single stoppage and two decision-based wins. He’ll go into UFC 290 on the back of his stunning defeat of Josh Emmett which took place in Western Australia on the 11^th of Feburary 2023. His previous fight against Brian Ortega at a UFC Fight Night on 16^th July 2022 also ended in victory with Yair delivering a crushing first round knockout at the UBS Arena in Long Island, New York. It’s not all smooth sailing, however, as his previous fight against Max Holloway at UFC Vegas 42 resulted in a unanimous decision loss. 

As we can see, both fighters have recorded relatively good results in recent times but Volkanovski has been far more active than his opponent. Both fighters last entered the Octagon four months ago, but look back a little further and a clear difference begins to show: Volkanovski’s last five fights took place during the past 35 months a- much lower than the 44-month period taken by Rodriguez. 

UFC 290 Main Card

• Alexander Volkanovski (C) vs Yair Rodriguez (IC) (featherweight title)
• Brandon Moreno (C) vs Alexandre Pantoja (flyweight title)
• Robert Whittaker vs Dricus Du Plessis (middleweight)
• Jalin Turner vs Dan Hooker (lightweight)
• Bo Nickal vs Tresean Gore (middleweight)

Prelims

• Robbie Lawler vs Niko Price (welterweight)
• Sean Brady vs Jack Della Maddalena (welterweight)
• Yazmin Jauregui vs Denise Gomes (women’s strawweight)
• Jimmy Crute vs Alonzo Menifield (light-heavyweight)

Early Prelims

• Vitor Petrino vs Marcin Prachnio (light-heavyweight)
• Christian Rodriguez vs Cameron Saaiman (bantamweight)
• Shannon Ross vs Jesus Aguilar (flyweight)
• Kamuela Kirk vs Esteban Ribovics (lightweight)