Cody Garbrandt: Puncher’s Chance Or The Next Generation?

Having shared a very intense feud with Dominick Cruz in the lead up to UFC 207, all that’s left is the fight for Cody Garbrandt. When simplified in those terms, ‘No Love’s’ shot at UFC glory sounds somewhat straight forward. In reality, the champion Cruz is a puzzle of striking wrapped in an enigma of footwork. Adding to that highly technical game that Joe Rogan describes as ‘revolutionary’ is the pre-fight tension. Storming out of an interview, and also scuffling backstage with Jeremy Stephens, Garbrandt has displayed numerous signs of frustration.

Similar to Jose Aldo with Conor McGregor, Garbrandt has proved reactionary to Cruz’s taunts and insults. Is ‘No Love’ trying to lull Cruz in to believing he has an edge in the mental domain? That remains to be seen, but what’s certain is a lot of people are writing Garbrandt off. Having that one-punch KO power is certainly useful tool, but the question is whether ‘No Love’ can hit the moving target. The Team Alpha Male prospect recently described himself as ‘the next generation.’ Leading us quite nicely in to the subject of today’s article, is Garbrandt a one-punch wonder, or the future of the UFC bantamweight division?

History Of Violence

Looking at Cody Garbrandt’s pro fighting record is like analysing the rap sheet of a serial killer. Sporting a 10-0 tally, ‘No Love’ has taken out nine opponents within the distance by T/KO, with seven in the first round. Garbrandt also holds a 32-1 amateur boxing record and a 6-2 amateur MMA tally. Although Garbrandt is not quite up there with pro experience in comparison to Cruz, he is long in the tooth as a fighter overall. Heading in to this bout with three straight vicious knockouts, the power of ‘No Love’s’ hands is not in question.

What is being debated is his accuracy, and ability to hit a target as evasive as ‘The Dominator.’ Interestingly, we have some good benchmarks in terms of Cruz’s last two opponents, both of whom were Team Alpha Male standouts. Former 135-pound boss TJ Dillashaw and Urijah Faber both lost decisions to Cruz recently. Breaking down Garbrandt’s striking, he’s far more similar to Chad Mendes or Urijah Faber than he is Dillasaw, but also is arguably much faster than either ‘Money’ or ‘The California Kid.’ Check out this video of ‘No Love’ working the pads with those hard hands:

Movement

Predicting Dominick Cruz’s movements is difficult at the best of times, damn near impossible when he’s on form. Failing the champion having a terrible fight and not utilizing his gameplan, Garbrandt will need to have put in serious rounds with someone who can mimic his opponent perfectly. Putting Garbrandt in to a category of striker; I’d call him an upright power puncher with the ability to switch-hit.

To put this simply, let’s hope Danny Castillo isn’t the man who’s been brought in to emulate Cruz in sparring. If this moment from the UFC 207 fight week is anything to go by, Castillo is not the man for that job:

Conclusion

Wrapping up this last-minute preview, a few points stand out. Answering the original question, Garbrandt certainly may have much more than a puncher’s chance in this fight. Studying Cruz’s style will help massively, but simulation will be key. The problem there is that Cruz has drilled his footwork relentlessly for years, something I don’t think TAM will have made time for. Barring someone who has committed to drilling and emulating Cruz, Garbrandt may have worked on a clinch and dirty boxing game. One way to shut down an elusive striker is to smother and crush them against the cage.

Outside these factors, ‘No Love’ could uncork a monster KO blow on the reigning champion. If he’s able to overcome the unquestionably brilliant style of the champ, we can arguably say Garbrandt is the next generation of the UFC’s 135-pound division. At this level, anyone has more than a puncher’s chance, to what degree depends on how smart Garbrandt fights, and how much homework he’s done on Cruz.

Stay tuned!