LowKick.com UFC 130 Community Predictions
Posted on May 26, 2011, 03:49 PM by Evan HoloberWelcome, Welcome, Welcome!
This is the first edition of LOWKICK PICKS! brought to you by the fight picks king himself HunterB, and the completely unintelligent edub. From now on we will be using lowkick 2.0 to post our thoughts on the upcoming fights for high profile events (think UFC, Strikeforce, and Dream). Dream 17's card has been shaken up too much lately that I wouldn't be surprised if more things were to change after this post has been written So we are gonna wait for the next dream even to take a shot at breaking it down.
This event has had a few of it's own hiccups as well. For starters, it wasn't even "Rampage vs. Hamill" up until a few weeks ago. The main event was to be a third meeting between the current UFC LW Champion Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard. As all of you undoubtedly now know they both received injuries in training, and the fight was pushed back because of them.
The UFC, in it's infinite wisdom decided not to add another high profile fight to this card, and went ahead with the event as is moving Rampage and Hamill to the Main slot as a result. Because of the stacked nature of this card in the first place they are able to get away with this, although it now looks more like a stacked UFC fight night instead of an event worthy of $54.99 (in HD). Events like this are the usual sleepers however, evenly matched fights between guys known for finishing opponents makes a good recipe for exciting scraps. This is how we see the main card coming to fruition Saturday night:
Quinton Jackson vs. Matt Hamill
HunterB - Jackson dictates the fight with his crisp boxing and TDD. He survives a few tense moments and finishes Hamill in the second round. Rampage TKO 2
edub - I agree completely. Rampage is going into this fight with a chip on his shoulder after being called out by Hamill. It's possible that Hamill can out wrestle Rampage into "quitting" on himself, but I think it's unlikely. Jackson knows what to look for from Matt, and he'll catch him at some point. Rampage TKO 2
Frank Mir vs. Roy Nelson
HunterB - Mir has always had trouble with fighters who push the pace. Nelson will rough Mir up in the clinch and also dictate the fight if it goes to the ground. Nelson via Decision
edub - This fight is a toss up for me. Mir holds the speed, striking, and size advantage over Roy. But he also (as Hunter pointed out) wilts under pressure. Roy is a fighter with a great chin, phenomenal submission defense, and above average top level grappling for a top tier HW. He is an opponent that gives Frank a lot of trouble. Nelson via Decision
Stefan Struve vs. Travis Browne
HunterB - Travis Browne is a great knockout artist, and is extremely promising. Unfortunately, one of my favorite fighters is going to be on the other end of that stick. Browne TKO 1 or 2
edub - Struve is an uber talented prospect. He has physical gifts most of us would kill for, and the time training to take advantage of them. Unfortunately, until he begins to start his fights quicker he will be under fire at the opening bell. Travis Browne has a lot of power, and he starts very fast. I believe this will be another learning experience for Struve, and I kinda hope I'm wrong but : Browne TKO 1
Thiago Alves vs. Rick Story
HunterB - Alves has never been able to handle a top tier MMA wrestler very well. Rick Story is no exception and has showed just as much wrestling prowess in his wins as any of the recent losses Alves has suffered. Story via decision
edub - Finally something we disagree on. Story's wrestling is great, but I think Thiago has handled better wrestlers before in Koscheck and Hughes. GSP is the best wrestler in MMA hands down, and Thiago was severely drained for the second Fitch fight. I think his new diet will have him on his toes, and he will bust up Story every time they exchange. Alves TKO 3
Brian Stann vs. Jorge Santiago
HunterB - Brian Stann has a ton of momentum coming in, but to me this is a very hard fight to pick. Santiago, in his recent showings, has shown that he's become quite technical on the feet as well. Santiago has never had a great takedown offense, and I believe Stann will be able to keep it up. Stann TKO 2
edub - We are in complete agreement here again. This fight is terribly close because as Santiago is so well rounded, his chin very poor. Couple that with Stann's big power and it could spell a short night for him. However, Santiago is on a great streak, and Hunter and I have agreed on enough already, so I am gonna go with the more experienced guy here. Santiago Sub 3.
Photo: Francis Specker
Comments
Struve has been making a name for himself but travis Browne was very impressive against Kongo.
cool post guys
Nice article, and I agree with most your picks.
I see Story's legs destroyed by the second round, and with Alves' TDD I foresee Rick being alittle exhausted (along with his confidence taking a hit) after several failed takedown attempts. Alves TKOs Story in round 2.
I see Stann being too much for Santiago, as well.
mir by tko 2nd round the cinderella story will be over i think nelson has hit a wall when it comes to HW's size strength speed and ability tends to beat just ability roy is tough as hell but in the end he will lose
rampage by decision i cant remeber the last time rampage ko'ed anyone but i dont see it happening here another tough fight
i am going with struve here it may just be wishfull thinking but i think the skyscraper has learned from past failures other than being a hard hitter browne hasnt impressed me much
alves by dec alves has shown with guys like kos and hughes that he can defend the takedown only against the absoulute best has it been a problem and rick story isnt one of those guys another tough fight which should be a war
finnaly stann first round tko jorge has all the skill in the world but no chin and no heart he is facing one of the toughest hardest hitting guys in the ufc expect jorge to wilt like a month old flower
its possible but i doubt it the struve /browne fight is really a pick em
mir/nelson is a hard one too and to be fair alves was a lot larger when he fought hughes and kos and basicly out muscled them. the more i think about this card the more i like it a lot of tough fights for good fighters and no matter what you know the struve/browne fight and the stann /santiago fight will be exciting
Hunter how are you going to say TKO in round 1 or 2 haha. Trying to increase those odds haha!
Going for the upset , Hamill on split decision
Struve vs Brown is gonna be a slugfest with struve winning in a second round TKO
Mir vs Nelson, hard one to pick aswell , Where nelson is gonna push the pace, although i think he cant finish Mir
Nelson on close decision
Thiago alves vs Story , Alves on unanimous decision
And i see Brain stann winning on a first round TKO
i gota go with hunterb picks