Will Justin Gaethje Be the First to KO Paddy Pimblett at UFC 324? Odds Say It is Unlikely
The betting odds for UFC 324’s main event indicate a competitive matchup between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett, with Pimblett listed as a slight favorite at -105 and Gaethje at -115. This narrow margin shows the style contrast between Gaethje’s knockout power and Pimblett’s undefeated UFC record.
Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett Odds
Gaethje enters the bout with 20 knockout victories in 26 professional wins, representing a 77% finishing rate by strikes. His recent form includes three victories in his last four appearances, with a decision win over Rafael Fiziev in March 2025. The significant strike statistics show Gaethje lands 7.29 significant strikes per minute at 59% accuracy, while absorbing 8.2 strikes per minute. For UFC 324, sportsbooks price Gaethje at +450 to win by knockout or TKO, a line that acknowledges his finishing ability, and play more numbers with a WinBet online.
Pimblett‘s professional record stands at 23-3, with seven knockout wins and ten submissions. His UFC tenure remains perfect at 7-0, with his most recent victory coming against Michael Chandler via third-round TKO in April 2025. Striking statistics indicate Pimblett lands 5.19 significant strikes per minute at 53% accuracy, absorbing 3.14 strikes per minute. Notably, Pimblett has never been knocked out across his 26-fight career, a defensive milestone that influences the betting lines.
Dustin Poirier, former UFC interim lightweight champion, forecasts a Gaethje victory despite the odds positioning Pimblett as favorite. Poirier’s analysis centers on Gaethje’s experience in 25-minute championship bouts and his punching power. Justin is just a bigger puncher, and he’ll put himself in harm’s way to land one of those shots,” Poirier stated on The Ariel Helwani Show. He questioned Pimblett’s ability to maintain disciplined distance control for the full duration, noting that Gaethje’s pressure makes it “tough to stay away from for 25 minutes”.
The fight takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on January 24, 2026, with the interim lightweight championship at stake. Betting markets show minimal separation between the fighters, with some sportsbooks listing Pimblett at 2/5 odds and Gaethje at 7/4. The knockout prop specifically favors Gaethje, with Polymarket data indicating 31% probability for a Gaethje KO/TKO victory compared to 69% for Pimblett’s win probability.
While Pimblett’s youth and ground game make him the marginal favorite, Gaethje’s +450 knockout line offers value based on his finishing history and Pimblett’s untested chin against elite strikers. Sportsbooks opened the bout nearly even, indicating market uncertainty about whether Pimblett’s defensive record can withstand Gaethje’s power.
