Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates Odds See Shift ahead of UFC Perth Headliner

ByTimothy Wheaton
Jack Della Maddalena

Jack Della Maddalena enters the May 2 UFC Fight Night main event as a very small betting favorite over Carlos Prates, but this line has moved a lot since the market first opened. The fight headlines UFC Fight Night in Perth, Western Australia, on May 2, and the latest listed prices show Della Maddalena as a narrow favorite, with examples around -120 and -125, while Prates has been posted from -106 to +100 in recent snapshots.

What stands out most is the movement over time. Early market reports which follow upcoming Alberta betting regulations news, said Prates opened as high as a -165 favorite, then dropped to -145 before the matchup moved toward pick’em territory. Another early public posting from mid-March showed Della Maddalena at -125 and Prates at -102, which points to just how quickly opinion shifted after the opening numbers appeared.

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By late April, several listed prices had settled into a much tighter range, with Della Maddalena holding a slim edge rather than either man carrying clear separation.

UFC odds: Jack Della Maddalena opens slim favorite over Carlos Prates in Perth main event

Della Maddalena, former champion, has been priced as the steadier side in a five-round setting, while Prates is being treated as the more dangerous puncher in a fight that could change with one clean shot. Public matchup analysis around the event has framed Della Maddalena as the minute-winner and Prates as the bigger finishing threat, which fits the way the market has refused to drift too far in either direction.

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For bettors, the main stakes are tied to how they see the fight playing out rather than simply who wins. If someone expects Della Maddalena to control pace and volume across five rounds, the moneyline and decision angle make more sense than a finish prop. If they believe Prates lands first and lands clean, the more logical play is tied to him ending the fight inside the distance.

Carlos Prates
Image via: Getty

Odds opened with stronger support for Prates, corrected hard, and now sits with Della Maddalena as a slight favorite in a fight where the moneyline, finish props, and round-based plays all stay live deep into fight week

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MONTREAL, QUEBEC – MAY 10: (L-R) Jack Della Maddalena of Australia punches Belal Muhammad in the UFC welterweight championship bout during the UFC 315 event at Bell Centre on May 10, 2025 in Montreal, Quebec. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
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Timothy Wheaton is a combat sports writer who covers MMA, Kickboxing, and Muay Thai. He has been a dedicated follower of these sports for decades. Tim has covered the UFC, GLORY, PFL, Bellator, and more, in person at live events as an on camera personality.

Tim also works with a host of other media outlets such as Calf Kick Sports, DAZN, Sportskeeda MMA, Combat Press, Fighters Only, MMA Sucka, Vecht Sport Info, MMA News, and Beyond Kickboxing. Tim is the authority on kickboxing and an MMA journalist who has covered K-1, PRIDE FC, UFC, GLORY Kickboxing, PFL, ONE Championship, and plenty more.

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