Can Alexander Volkanovski Actually Finish Diego Lopes This Time? The Betting Markets Say No
Alexander Volkanovski defends his featherweight title against Diego Lopes on January 31 at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney. The rematch puts Volkanovski at -154 to -160, while Lopes sits between +120 and +145 across major sportsbooks. These odds reflect confidence in the champion but acknowledge the challenger’s genuine finishing threat.
The betting market expects a long fight. The total rounds prop sits at 4.5, with the over priced at -106 and the under at -120. Oddsmakers favor Volkanovski winning by decision at +165, the same method he used in their April encounter at UFC 314. That unanimous decision victory saw scores of 49-46, 49-46, and 48-47, with Volkanovski outlanding Lopes 158 to 63 in significant strikes.
Volkanovski’s finishing history suggests a decision is the likely outcome. Across 27 career wins, he holds 13 knockouts and three submissions, giving him a 61.5 percent finish rate. In the UFC featherweight division specifically, the 37-year-old has relied heavily on decisions, winning 11 of his 27 total victories this way. His submission attempts average just 0.2 per 15 minutes, ranking among the lowest in the division. The odds reflect this pattern, with Volkanovski by submission listed at +1200 and Volkanovski by knockout at +300 to +430 depending on the book. Check more numbers and play more games at casino slotoro.
UFC 325 Betting Preview: Can Alexander Volkanovski Finish Diego Lopes in Sydney?
Betting markets show limited confidence in a stoppage. The fight not going the distance is listed at -134, suggesting around a 43 percent chance of a finish by either man. Given Volkanovski‘s decision-oriented approach and Lopes’ granite chin, the most likely scenario remains another five-round battle. If a finish occurs, Lopes by knockout between rounds two and four offers the best value at +300, capitalizing on his power and the champion’s recent vulnerability. Volkanovski by submission at +1200 presents lottery-ticket odds given his career-low submission rate.
Lopes, at 31, holds physical advantages in height and reach. His durability has proven exceptional, having been finished only twice by knockout in 34 professional fights. This resilience makes an early Volkanovski finish unlikely despite the champion’s home advantage in Sydney.
A first-round finish appears remote for either fighter. Lopes has 15 first-round finishes in his career but struggled to implement that early aggression effectively in their first meeting. The champion’s ring generalship and movement frustrated Lopes’ pressure tactics, forcing the Brazilian to chase and leave himself open to counters.
Volkanovski’s home crowd support and nearly year-long rest period should benefit the aging champion. Whether that translates to a finish remains doubtful. The smart money backs another decision, just as the odds suggest.
