Brandon Moreno Favored Over Tatsuro Taira as Both Chase Title Contention
In a significant flyweight matchup on the main card, former champion Brandon Moreno meets rising prospect Tatsuro Taira in a three-round bout that carries implications for the division’s title picture. The UFC’s final pay-per-view before the transition to Paramount+ arrives on December 6, 2025, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas with UFC 323.
Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira Odds
Moreno enters as the betting favorite with opening odds of +114 at some sportsbooks, implying a 44 percent win probability. Taira sits at -135 with a 55 percent implied win probability. The line positions Taira as a slight favorite despite Moreno’s pedigree as a former two-time champion. This reflects the competitive nature of the matchup and Taira’s momentum as a rising contender. Line movement at sportsbooks, which also feature popular casino games, has remained minimal since the odds opened.
The fight occupies an interesting space in the promotion’s title structure. Alexandre Pantoja, the current flyweight champion, defends his belt in the co-main event against Joshua Van. While the UFC has not officially announced a title shot for the Moreno-Taira winner, industry reporting and fighter commentary suggest the victor will earn the next opportunity at Pantoja’s crown, potentially. For Moreno, a win represents a pathway back to the title after losses to Pantoja at UFC 290 and another split decision setback to Brandon Royval in February 2024. For Taira, victory would secure his first career title opportunity.
The 31-year-old Mexican fighter, Moreno, has won consecutive fights over Amir Albazi and Steve Erceg via unanimous decision since his Royval loss, re-establishing himself as a contender. He maintains the second-ranked position in the flyweight division. Taira, by contrast, is 17-1 overall and currently ranks fifth or sixth in the flyweight standings at age 25. The Japanese prospect’s sole UFC loss came via split decision to Royval in October 2024, yet he has since rebounded with a dominant submission victory over Hyun Sung Park at UFC Vegas 108 in August 2025.
Moreno lands significantly more strikes per minute at approximately 3.96 compared to Taira’s 2.87, giving the veteran a striking volume advantage of roughly 38 percent. Moreno’s takedown defense rates at 64 percent, though he averages one successful takedown defense every two rounds. Taira compensates through superior grappling output, averaging approximately one takedown per round.
The flyweight division remains wide open, making decisive victories consequential for determining the next challenger to Pantoja’s throne. Moreno has publicly stated that a win would position him for title consideration. Taira has similarly expressed confidence that victory would warrant a title shot, potentially setting up an intriguing matchup if Pantoja retains his belt against Van.
