Benoit Saint-Denis Opens as Narrow Favorite over Paddy Pimblett
The upcoming Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett fight is set for UFC 329 on May 24, 2026, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, giving the matchup a big-stage feel before the betting talk even starts. With the date and venue now clear, the market is opening with Saint-Denis as the favorite and Pimblett as the underdog, which sets up a lively line-watch heading into fight week.
For early picks, Paddy Pimblett is listed as a slight underdog against Benoit Saint-Denis in the opening betting line, with Saint-Denis around -170 and Pimblett about +145. The Mastercard online casinos market leans toward a Saint-Denis win, but Pimblett’s profile and recent UFC run keep the matchup live on the numbers.
Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett Odds
Benoit Saint-Denis enters as the more aggressive finish threat. UFC stats list him at 17-3-0 with one no contest, and his UFC profile notes a strong submission-heavy win profile, including 10 submission wins and four knockout wins. He has a background in judo and French special forces, which helps explain the pressure style he brings to the cage.
Pimblett comes in with a 23-4 record and a UFC profile that shows a well-rounded game focused on the ground, though his defense numbers are softer than his offensive output. His recent run includes a unanimous decision loss to Justin Gaethje in January 2026, plus wins over Michael Chandler, King Green, Tony Ferguson, Jared Gordon, Jordan Leavitt, Kazula Vargas, and Luigi Vendramini.
UFC 329 will also see the return of Conor McGregor as he faces a former opponent, Max Holloway.
For method betting, Saint-Denis is the cleaner pick if you want the favorite side and the more obvious finish angle. His finishing profile points most naturally toward submission or a late stoppage, while Pimblett’s path usually depends on getting the fight into grappling exchanges where he can create scrambles and hunt for a submission of his own. If the line holds close to the opening number, Saint-Denis by stoppage is the market’s most likely read, with Pimblett by decision or submission the main upset routes.
From a betting preview angle, this is the kind of lightweight pairing that can move fast if one side gets backed hard. Early pricing has already put Saint-Denis in front, but the gap is not wide enough to call it a mismatch, especially with Pimblett’s name value and recent UFC wins keeping public interest high.
That leaves a simple narrative to the betting story as Saint-Denis as the favorite, Pimblett as the value play, and the method market likely centered on a finish rather than a long, cautious three-round fight. If the line holds near the opening number, the safest early angle is Saint-Denis to win, with stoppage the most natural route on paper. However, Pimblett as an underdog is a great nod.
