Ante Delija Seen As KO Favorite Over UFC Veteran Serghei Spivac
Heavyweight matchmaking rarely offers a clean read, but the numbers around Serghei Spivac vs. Ante Delija tell a fairly direct story: the market has circled the Croatian as the man more likely to get this done inside the distance, while still giving Spivac enough respect to keep him in live‑dog territory for upset hunters.
Ante Delija currently sits as the betting favourite against Serghei Spivac ahead of their heavyweight clash at UFC Fight Night 267 in Houston, with the market tilting toward Delija by finish rather than a drawn-out decision. Odds and movement over the past few weeks indicate growing confidence in the Croatian.
Serghei Spivac vs. Ante Delija Odds
On straight odds, major books price Delija around -190, implying roughly a 62–63% chance of victory against Spivac at about +155, or a 37–38% implied win probability. Other books show Delija in the -163 to -180 range, with Spivac between +143 and +155. With both men carrying real finishing power and clear paths on the mat, this one shapes up less as a question of “if” it ends early and more of “who lands their game first,” and the odds have been slowly tightening as bettors pick their side.
Books that have gone deeper into props mirror that theme, shading “fight doesn’t go the distance” heavily and leaning toward Delija by KO/TKO as the likeliest outcome, with his stoppage price typically sitting shorter than any submission number on either side. Spivac’s most attractive paths on the board tend to be submission or inside‑the‑distance tickets at plus money.
Stylistically, the matchup has clear finishing angles, which shape method‑of‑victory betting. Delija, former PFL champ, brings heavy top pressure and damaging ground‑and‑pound, while Spivac has shown opportunistic submissions off scrambles, including a previous armbar on Marcin Tybura in the UFC.
Recent form also feeds into the pricing. Delija returns for his third UFC appearance after an emphatic first‑round knockout of Tybura in his debut, followed by a first‑round loss to Waldo Cortes‑Acosta in November, which shows some volatility.
Spivac, ranked around seventh at heavyweight heading into this booking, is coming off back‑to‑back defeats but has a history of wins over names like Derrick Lewis and Tybura and has previously shared the cage with the current champion, which leaves him as a live underdog in many analysts’ eyes.
For bettors, that leaves this heavyweight matchup as an interesting numbers‑versus‑narrative spot: the market has settled on Delija as a clear favourite with a finish‑heavy profile, yet long‑range projections remain more cautious about writing off Spivac’s chances. Anyone looking to get involved will need to decide whether to follow the current tilt toward Delija inside the distance or side with Spivac as a live underdog with proven submission threats and experience against top‑10 opposition.
The bout is scheduled for February 21, 2026, at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, as part of UFC Fight Night 267: Strickland vs. Hernandez. It was originally targeted for UFC 325 in Sydney before being rescheduled to this card, which has helped create a longer lead‑up window for betting markets to develop.
