Umar Nurmagomedov Opens As Heavy Favorite Agaisnt Deiveson Figueiredo – UFC 324
Umar Nurmagomedov enters UFC 324 as the heavy favorite against Deiveson Figueiredo, with opening odds ranging from -1400 to -2000 across major sportsbooks, translating to roughly an 80% implied win probability.
The Dagestani wrestler hasn’t fought since his January loss to Merab Dvalishvili but returns as the bantamweight division’s #1-ranked fighter. Figueiredo sits as a +850 to +1000 underdog, offering around 20% implied equity despite arriving with 25 career wins and a resume that includes title reigns at flyweight. See more at HitnSpin Casino.
UFC 324 takes place on January 24, 2026, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card marks a historic milestone as the first UFC event to air exclusively on Paramount+, shifting the promotion’s traditional ESPN partnership for this installment. Las Vegas remains the UFC’s home base for major events, with the T-Mobile Arena hosting some of the organization’s biggest fight nights over the past decade.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Deiveson Figueiredo Early Odds
The stats reveal why Vegas has made Nurmagomedov such a clear favorite. He lands 4.38 significant strikes per minute compared to Figueiredo’s 2.82—a 55% volume advantage. Nurmagomedov’s 79% takedown defense severely limits Figueiredo’s offensive wrestling, while his damage economy (absorbing 2.15 strikes per minute versus Figueiredo’s 3.64) favors his ability to coast through rounds without accumulating visible damage. At 29 years old, Nurmagomedov also carries a cardio advantage over the 37-year-old Brazilian, whose recent success came at flyweight before moving up to bantamweight for his last four UFC appearances.
Prediction models favor Nurmagomedov via decision at 52% probability, with knockouts and submissions adding another 13% to his finish pool. The analytical consensus hinges on wrestling pressure wearing down Figueiredo’s explosive defense, compounded by volume striking that judges typically reward. Nurmagomedov’s record shows 52.6% of his wins come by decision, reflecting a control-heavy approach that plays perfectly into a three-round format against a smaller, aging opponent.
Figueiredo’s path to victory tightens considerably but doesn’t vanish. His knockout rate sits at 14% implied probability, centered entirely on the first round when his power remains sharp and fresh. The Brazilian once held the fastest submission in UFC flyweight history (1:57 guillotine against Alex Perez) and maintains five guillotine victories in his arsenal, viable if Nurmagomedov abandons his gameplan or drops his head carelessly. Submission odds hover around 8%, while decision victory sits nearly impossible at 5%.
The sharps lean Nurmagomedov by decision specifically rather than straight moneyline, suggesting early bets at -175 hold better value than the outright favorite. Age, size, technical wrestling, and volume striking all compound into a narrative Vegas has already written. Figueiredo needs the perfect storm, clean power in the pocket, risky jiu-jitsu counters, and a Nurmagomedov mistake. That storm carries roughly four-to-one odds against forming.
