UFC Belgrade Odds: Is Marcin Tybura a Value Underdog Against Aleksandar Rakic?
Aleksandar Rakic enters his heavyweight debut as a clear favourite against Marcin Tybura at UFC Belgrade, but the move up 60 pounds creates a major variable in a fight built around size, pace and wrestling. The bout is set for Saturday, August 1, at Belgrade Arena in Belgrade, Serbia, on the main card of UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez.
Rakic is priced around -344, with Tybura at +272 across a book average. Those numbers give Rakic an implied win probability of roughly 77 percent. Over time, the market has moved further toward Rakic. He opened near -334 while Tybura began around +222; the current Zula Casino Promo Code range has Rakić as short as -385 and Tybura available as high as +317. Earlier opening prices had Rakić at -300 and Tybura at +210, showing steady support for the Serbian-Austrian fighter as fight week approaches.
UFC Belgrade Odds: Aleksandar Rakic vs. Marcin Tybura
Rakic, 34, brings a 14-6 professional record and makes his first UFC appearance at heavyweight after competing for years at light heavyweight. He is 6-foot-4 with a 78-inch reach. Rakic is a sharp kicker with a long straight right and can take rounds by controlling open space, especially if he is comfortable carrying extra weight. He has nine knockout wins and eight first-round finishes.
“Rocket” Rakic is in a must-win position as he is currently on a four-fight losing streak. Most recently, he lost via knockout in the first round to Azamat Murzakanov. The home setting is another factor. Rakic will make his heavyweight debut in Belgrade, where the crowd should be firmly behind him, though atmosphere cannot solve the physical demands of facing an established heavyweight.
Tybura owns a 27-11 record and has far more experience in the division, including a 14-10 UFC mark. At 6-foot-3, 249 pounds and with the same 78-inch reach as Rakic, he should carry a noticeable mass advantage once clinches and fence exchanges begin.
Poland’s Tybura has lost his past two fights, dropping a knockout defeat to Ante Delija in September 2025 before a decision loss to Tyrell Fortune in March. Still, he has faced heavyweight power and longer fights many times, which makes him a live underdog if Rakic fades or struggles to defend prolonged grappling sequences.
The most likely scenario according to oddsmakers is Rakic using kicks and straight punches to bank rounds at range, with Tybura having moments when he closes distance. A Tybura submission or late TKO is the upset angle, but Rakic by points is the more balanced call.
Given Rakic is coming off a four-fight losing streak, including a recent knockout loss, plus moving up to heavyweight for the first time in the UFC, Tybura may be a wise pick, especially as an underdog.
