“I thought the odds would flip”: Paddy Pimblett is as Surprised as You Being Betting Favorite Over Justin Gaethje
Paddy Pimblett expressed genuine surprise that bookmakers installed him as the betting favorite over Justin Gaethje for their UFC 324 interim lightweight title clash scheduled for January 24 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The Liverpool native, who carries a 23-3 professional record into his first UFC championship bout, acknowledged the odds movement caught him off guard during this week’s pre-fight press conference.
“I know there’s a lot of doubt around me, but I opened this fight as the betting favorite and it stayed that way into fight week,” Pimblett said.
“I didn’t think I’d stay favorite; I thought the odds would flip. That just shows the smart people have picked me though, doesn’t it? The people who are actually putting money on it. All the old guard, the fighters, are picking Justin because they don’t like it when the next generation comes in and starts beating the old guard. All the lightweights I see who are now retired or on the way out are all picking Justin to win, but that’s just because it makes them look good if Justin wins. When I win and beat him worse than they did – or some of them got beat by him – it changes the story.”
“Smart People Have Picked Me”: Paddy Pimblett Reacts to Being Betting Favorite Over Justin Gaethje
The betting markets opened with Pimblett as a narrow -105 favorite, but the line has solidified with the British fighter now sitting between -225 and -238 at major sportsbooks, while Gaethje sits as a +185 to +195 underdog. This represents a significant shift in perception, as Gaethje entered the promotion in 2017 with an undefeated 17-0 record and previously held the interim UFC lightweight title.
The 37-year-old American owns victories over Tony Ferguson, Rafael Fiziev, and Dustin Poirier, though he enters this bout following a March 2025 decision win over Fiziev that some analysts viewed as less dominant than his earlier performances.
UFC commentator Laura Sanko voiced what many industry observers have thought about the odds, calling the margin “pretty crazy” when the lines first appeared. Sanko noted that while Pimblett deserved respect, the substantial gap surprised her given Gaethje’s experience and violent striking style. The veteran’s 20 knockout victories and World Series of Fighting championship pedigree make him the most accomplished opponent Pimblett has faced in his seven-fight UFC run, which includes a third-round TKO of Michael Chandler at UFC 314 last April.
The matchup serves as the inaugural main event for UFC’s new broadcasting partnership with Paramount+, marking the first numbered event since 2021 to forego traditional pay-per-view distribution in the United States. That platform shift, combined with Pimblett’s undefeated promotional record and growing popularity, appears to have influenced public sentiment despite Gaethje’s established credentials. The former interim champion hinted at retirement before receiving this title opportunity, adding another layer of stakes to a fight where the betting public has clearly sided with the next generation over the old guard.
