Max Holloway Opens As Sizeable Favorite Over Conor McGregor
Max Holloway opens as a massive favorite in the early betting lines for UFC 329’s main event, with Conor McGregor listed as a significant underdog heading into his five-year return to the octagon. This welterweight bout at 170 pounds headlines UFC 329 on July 11, 2026, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas during International Fight Week.
Holloway’s odds range from -410 to -550 across major sportsbooks, making him one of the heaviest favorites in recent UFC main event history. The most common line shows Holloway at -450, meaning bettors need to risk $450 to win $100. McGregor’s odds sit between +290 and +350, with +350 being the most frequently cited number. At +350, a $100 bet on McGregor would payout $350 if he wins.
The B2B sports betting technology market strongly favors a finish over judges’ decision. The fight not going the distance is priced at -400, indicating bookmakers expect a knockout or submission. Holloway winning by KO/TKO is the most probable single outcome at -148, while Holloway to win by KO/TKO specifically sits at -90 on prediction markets. McGregor winning by KO/TKO is available at +49, showing the market gives him slim knockout chances.
Early Betting Odds UFC 329 Main Event: Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway
These marks represent the longest underdog odds McGregor has faced in his entire UFC career. The implied probability puts Holloway at roughly 82% to win, while McGregor sits around 22-31%.
This match marks McGregor’s first appearance since breaking his leg at UFC 264 in July 2021, a five-year layoff that directly drives the betting odds. Holloway makes his welterweight debut, having previously competed at featherweight where he captured the title and a few recent wins in the lightweight division.
The fighters previously met on August 17, 2013, at UFC Fight Night 26 in a featherweight prelim, where McGregor won by unanimous decision in his second UFC bout. That fight occurred while McGregor fought with a torn ACL he sustained in the second round.
Daniel Cormier expressed doubt about McGregor’s chances, noting that “you don’t get better at something by not doing it” and that five years away from the octagon creates a massive hurdle even if McGregor is motivated. Joe Rogan believes Holloway will benefit from the welterweight stipulation, giving the Hawaiian the advantage.
UFC 329 is set for July 11 in Las Vegas, and if the odds hold, this main event will be one of the biggest betting mismatches in recent UFC history, with fans taking the long shot and the market taking the boxer with the machine-gun hands.
