Alexander Volkanovski Remains Heavy Favorite Over Diego Lopes at UFC 325
Alexander Volkanovski defends his UFC featherweight title against Diego Lopes at UFC 325 on February 1 at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, marking the champion’s first home defense in Australia. The rematch arrives nine months after their first meeting at UFC 314, where Volkanovski won via unanimous decision with scores of 49-46, 49-46, and 48-47.
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes Odds
Current betting lines favor Volkanovski at -148 to -162 across major sportsbooks, while Lopes sits at +124 to +136. The odds have remained stable since opening at -150/-155 for Volkanovski and +130 for Lopes. This represents a slight tightening from their first encounter, which opened at -130/-135 for Volkanovski and closed at -155/-160, fans can find more info with Louisiana sports betting.
The odds movement tells an interesting story. At UFC 314, Lopes entered as a +400 underdog but that gap has narrowed considerably for the rematch. Betting markets opened with Volkanovski at -150 and have drifted slightly to -147 at some books, suggesting mixed public sentiment despite the champion’s dominant first performance.
The over/under sits at 4.5 rounds with -115 on the under, indicating oddsmakers expect the fight to reach the championship rounds. Sharp bettors have shown interest in Lopes by decision no action at -125, which covers knockout or submission victories while pushing on a decision loss.
Volkanovski’s resume speaks to his technical superiority. The 37-year-old holds a 27-4 record with 13 knockout wins. He became the oldest fighter to capture UFC featherweight gold at 36 years and 195 days when he defeated Lopes in April. His striking accuracy sits at 56 percent while absorbing just 3.36 significant strikes per minute. The champion landed 158 significant strikes to Lopes’ 63 in their first meeting, demonstrating his volume advantage.
Lopes enters at 31 years old with a finishing rate that remains impressive, with 11 knockout wins and 12 submission victories. After the Volkanovski loss, Lopes rebounded spectacularly at Noche UFC in September, knocking out Jean Silva with a spinning elbow at 4:48 of round two.
Volkanovski fights at home for the first time since his unsuccessful lightweight title challenge against Islam Makhachev in February 2023. He aims to cement his second title reign after enduring back-to-back knockout losses to Makhachev and Ilia Topuria in 2023-2024. Questions about his durability persist following those stoppages.
The featherweight division awaits the outcome. Undefeated contenders Movsar Evloev and Lerone Murphy have been passed over for this rematch despite compelling cases for title shots. Murphy scored a brutal spinning elbow knockout of Aaron Pico at UFC 319 that earned him Performance of the Year from UFC president Dana White, yet still finds himself on the outside looking in.
Betting markets suggest a competitive rematch despite Volkanovski’s clear victory nine months ago. The tightened odds reflect Lopes’ youth, finishing ability, and recent momentum against the champion’s age and durability concerns.
