Main Event Breakdown: UFC Sao Paulo

The second of Saturday’s UFC doubleheader goes down with UFC Fight Night 100 a mere 5914 miles away from Belfast in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

This is a solid offering, even though it may be hard for fight fans to dedicate another full day to face-punching after doing so for UFC 205 last weekend. But fans will be treated to a surefire barnburner between Thomas Almeida and Albert Morales, a whirlwind of violence between Justin Scoggins and Pedro Munhoz, and Jack ‘The Joker’ Hermansson laughing maniacally while he tries to smash Muay Thai black belt Cezar Ferreira in the face.

The lineup of the Brazilian card will be topped by another rematch, this time in the light heavyweight division. Six years after he defeated Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Ryan Bader will try to repeat the trick in the five-round main event.

Read on for the main event breakdown of UFC Sao Paulo.

Light Heavyweights Ryan Bader vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

These two first fought a little over six years ago. Bader was an up-and-coming 27-year-old prospect while ‘Little Nog’ was the 34-year-old vet. Since then, a litany of injuries has limited Nogueira to only six fights. He has gone 3-3 in that time. Meanwhile, Bader has fought 14 times, going 9-5.

A Bader with much less refined striking largely got boxed up by Nogueira in extended exchanges in the pocket the first time around. But he wasn’t completely outclassed the way Patrick Cummings was in Nogueira’s last fight. He stayed in it behind superior speed and big power punches that ‘Little Nog’ had to cover up to defend. This limited his chances to counter effectively. Bader’s boxing is much better nowadays. He is no longer merely a powerful right hand. The American works well behind his jab and follows one or two punches with damaging kicks to the legs and body. Making his kicks a legitimate threat was a large part of his handling of Rashad Evans.

‘Darth’ also doesn’t have to worry about the takedown, which Nogueira will have to think about. ‘Minotouro’ has shown reliable takedown defense, but Bader’s strength and finishing ability against the cage will ensure the fight hits the mat at some point. Nogueira can still box and he can still flurry with speed and power, but he’s at a disadvantage in athleticism and overall weapons.

Bader has a bad habit of getting clipped, so the Brazilian vet isn’t without hope. But Bader only has one bad loss to someone outside the top five (Tito Ortiz), and he’s come a long way since the first fight. Despite his recent walk-away knockout of Ilir Latifi, Bader isn’t much of a finisher. Nogueira is definitely getting up there, but he still has a solid chin, exhibited in his fight with ‘Shogun’ Rua. Still, with 25 minutes and a considerable chunk of time likely spent dropping hammers from top position, Bader should polish off the victory inside the distance.

The Pick: Bader by third-round TKO.