Justin Gaethje Knockout Odds Hold Steady Despite Line Movement Ahead of UFC 324
The betting markets for Saturday’s UFC 324 interim lightweight title fight between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett have remained remarkably stable since the bout opened in late November, with Gaethje’s knockout odds settling in a narrow range across major sportsbooks as fight week arrives.
Gaethje is currently priced between 10/3 and 4/1 to win by knockout or technical knockout against Pimblett, depending on the bookmaker. Some offer 10/3 on a Gaethje knockout, while others and several UK operators have posted 4/1 odds for the same outcome. In American format, the knockout odds for “The Highlight” range from +390 to +440 at most US sportsbooks, for Austrlian games check out aussie players choice – Winspirit.
Justin Gaethje’s Knockout Odds Against Paddy Pimblett Show Minimal Movement Ahead of UFC 324
When the fight opened on November 27 following Dana White’s Thanksgiving Day announcement, Pimblett was installed as a narrow -185 favorite with Gaethje at +160. The line has since moved consistently in Pimblett’s direction, with the Liverpool native now sitting between -225 and -238 across most platforms, while Gaethje has drifted to the +185 to +195 range.
Other books initially posted Pimblett at -198 with Gaethje at +164 when the fight was first announced, according to odds released on November 27. By early January, another report showed opening lines with Pimblett as a slight -105 favorite and Gaethje at -115, though these appear to be from offshore books.
The directional movement has been clear. Pimblett opened around -185 and has moved to approximately -205 by late December, before settling near -235 in fight week. Meanwhile, Gaethje’s moneyline has shifted from an opening +160 to the current +190 range, representing roughly a 4.2 percent increase in his odds.
Despite the overall line movement favoring Pimblett, the method of victory odds for Gaethje by knockout have held relatively firm. The American’s knockout power remains his most credible path to victory, reflected in the fact that his KO odds represent better value than a straight win or decision outcome. Gaethje by decision sits at 5/1, while his knockout odds at 10/3 suggest bookmakers view the stoppage as his most likely route to reclaiming interim gold.
The 37-year-old Gaethje carries 20 knockout victories in his 26 career wins, giving him one of the most prolific finishing rates in lightweight history. His aggressive striking style and devastating leg kicks have produced 14 post-fight bonuses in 14 UFC appearances.
Pimblett enters as the betting favorite at 4/9 across most books, with his submission threat priced at 31/20—considerably shorter than his own knockout odds of 4/1. The 31-year-old has never lost in his UFC career, posting a perfect 7-0 record with 10 of his 23 career victories coming by submission.
The fight takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, with the main card beginning at 9 PM ET on Paramount+ as the UFC debuts its new broadcasting partnership. Victory for Gaethje would make him a two-time interim lightweight champion, while Pimblett seeks his first UFC title in what represents the biggest test of his professional career.
