Justin Gaethje: “I Prefer To Be The Underdog” Against Paddy Pimblett in UFC Interim Title Showdown
Justin Gaethje is the odds-on underdog against Paddy Pimblett, and he couldn’t be happier. Justin Gaethje has carved out a career thriving in the role many fighters fear. With interim lightweight title gold on the line at UFC 324 on January 24 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, The Highlight finds himself once again as the mathematical underdog against Paddy Pimblett, and that positioning sits perfectly with him.
The betting lines reflect Pimblett’s favored status, with sportsbooks and UK bookmakers listing Gaethje at +160 (later moving to +185) while Pimblett sits at -213 (later adjusted to -215). The spread translates to a $100 risk on Gaethje returning $160 in profit, whereas backing Pimblett requires risking $213 to win $100.
Justin Gaethje On Being the Underdog Against Paddy Pimblett
Gaethje’s relationship with underdog positioning extends beyond mere psychology or motivational rhetoric. His UFC record reveals a fighter who performs consistently when lined up against betting favorites. In 14 UFC fights spanning from 2017 through March 2025, Gaethje has encountered at least nine or ten matchups where bookmakers favored his opponent. More directly, records show Gaethje has won four of seven fights as an underdog in the UFC, demonstrating a success rate that contradicts the mathematical preference given to his opponents.
This statistical reality informs Gaethje’s confidence heading into the Pimblett bout. When asked about the odds structure, he offered an unfiltered perspective. Speaking to Submission Radio, he explained:
“When I saw the odds and that Paddy’s the favorite, I loved it. You don’t get here unless you’re petty. People telling me I can’t do something is the reason I’m still here. The people who believe in me inspire me, but it’s the people telling me I’m going to fail or that I don’t have it that push me to get up in the morning and light a fire under my ass. People don’t understand how crazy this game is. I think I’ve been the underdog in at least nine or ten of my fourteen UFC fights and I’ve won the majority of those. I prefer to be the underdog.”
Gaethje’s track record against elite-level grapplers specifically addresses the central tactical concern surrounding the matchup. Pimblett earned his title opportunity through impressive striking displays and ground control, with seven consecutive UFC victories including a statement third-round TKO over Michael Chandler at UFC 314 in April 2025. The British fighter’s record shows 22 takedowns landed across 88 attempts in UFC competition, creating a 25 percent success rate. His submission offensive has yielded results, with ten submission wins constituting 44 percent of his overall victories.
Yet Gaethje‘s grappling credentials withstand scrutiny despite occasional difficulties on the mat. His most significant submission losses came against opponents of extraordinary pedigree. Charles Oliveira, then-holder of the vacant lightweight title, submitted Gaethje via rear-naked choke in May 2022 after rocking him with strikes and forcing him to his back. Khabib Nurmagomedov, who submitted Gaethje via triangle choke in October 2020, represented an altogether different adversary. Khabib’s positional control pressure created submission opportunities through suffocating top control rather than conventional takedown exchanges. But the US-born athlete is not worried. He continued:
“People say the way Paddy wins is on the ground, that if he gets me down that’s where he beats me. They’re forgetting how decorated a grappler I am. The biggest fights I’ve had have been against the most elite grapplers. I have had issues, but the way Charles Oliveira got me to the ground was by rocking me and sitting me down with a punch.
“Khabib was a whole other conundrum. Since the Oliveira fight I’ve really trained a lot of jiu‑jitsu and grappling and I’ve actually been enjoying it more than I ever have. I’m not looking to grapple, but I have no issue in the grappling department. My ability to keep people from taking me down is second to none. He’s going to have to compromise me with punches, kicks, and knees. You never know – maybe I’ll sub him. Anything’s possible, even if it’s a million‑to‑one.”
The odds positioning remains mathematically sound from a sportsbook perspective given Pimblett’s current form and recent dominance. The British fighter enters with earned credibility as a rising title contender backed by an undefeated UFC record and a signature victory over established opposition. Yet Gaethje’s historical performance as an underdog, his specific tactical advantages in striking volume, and his legitimate grappling improvements since 2022 create the exact scenario that has fueled his most motivated performances throughout his career.
