Jake Paul: “This Is the Biggest Upset in Sports History,” On Anthony Joshua Boxing Match
Jake Paul is preparing for what he’s calling “the biggest upset in sports history” when he steps into the ring against Anthony Joshua on Friday night at Miami’s Kaseya Center.
“Biggest Upset in Sports History”: Jake Paul’s Controversial Claim Before Anthony Joshua Fight
The betting markets have essentially written the script already, Joshua sits at -1200 odds with a 92.31% implied win probability, while Paul’s +700 underdog status gives him roughly a 12.5% chance of victory in the eyes of trusted sportsbooks such as Betfury, which covers Bitcoin boxing betting. By any rational measure, everything points toward the veteran heavyweight overwhelming the YouTuber-turned-boxer. Yet Paul continues to build his case with mathematical precision rather than bluster.
At 36 years old, the former two-time unified heavyweight champion brings an Olympic gold medal pedigree, 28 professional wins, and 25 knockout victories to Friday’s contest. He stands 6 feet 6 inches with an 82-inch reach, a five-inch height and six-inch reach advantage over Paul.
“On paper, the cards are stacked against me,” Jake Paul said, “but really, in terms of boxing, I’m a better boxer than AJ, which is hilarious to say.” Rather than trading knockout threats, Paul points to specific technical advantages: footwork, defense, experience on fight night, staying calm under pressure, combinations, body work, countering, and feints. His camp brought in Andy Ruiz Jr., the fighter who actually defeated Joshua in 2019, to design sparring scenarios and game plans.
Paul‘s record sits at 12 wins and 1 loss, with seven knockouts. His most recent victory came in June when he decisioned Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., following that up with a November win against Mike Tyson that shattered Netflix viewership records. Joshua’s last fight came in September 2024, when he lost to Daniel Dubois in the fifth round and required elbow surgery afterward. Paul has fought twice since then, carrying fresher ring time into Friday.
The mental dimension may matter most. Paul has identified that Joshua tends to lose his temper and doesn’t adjust well mid-fight. “It’s going to be mentally very difficult for him when I start to win rounds and he can’t hit me,” Paul stated. The eight-round professional contest with 10-ounce gloves and three-minute rounds as the framework.
“I would say footwork, defense, having the experience on fight night, staying calm, jab, combinations, body work, countering, feints – just a lot of stuff. We’re constantly improving. I feel super calm, and I think the bigger the moment and the bigger the occasion, I just rise to it and I’m prepared for these types of moments, so there’s currently not a ton of nerves, to be honest.
“This is the biggest upset in sports history that’s about to take place on Friday. Miami is a big boxing city. A lot of fight fans here, Miami is always popping, and this is where I had my pro debut. We’re bringing it back for the biggest fight of my career yet.”
The event broadcasts on Netflix Friday night. Whether Paul’s technical breakdown and preparation advantage overcome Joshua’s experience and power will determine if boxing’s biggest upset actually happens.
