Early Odds Heavily Favor Waldo Cortes-Acosta over Derrick Lewis at UFC 324
The heavyweight division gets a compelling matchup when Waldo Cortes-Acosta faces off against Derrick Lewis at UFC 324 on January 24, 2026, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, marking the UFC’s inaugural live event on Paramount+.
Early betting lines reflect a significant gap between the two, with Cortes-Acosta established as the -230 favorite at with some books and Lewis positioned as a +176 underdog. More recent lines from various sportsbooks, such as Mateslots bonus, show movement on the odds, with Cortes-Acosta at -205 and Lewis at +175, while win probability models suggest roughly a 70-30 split favoring the Dominican fighter.
Early Odds Heavily Favor Waldo Cortes-Acosta over Derrick Lewis at UFC 324
The context behind this matchup reveals a stark contrast in activity and trajectory. Cortes-Acosta has experienced one of the most unusual campaigns in recent memory, competing five times throughout 2025 and finishing the year with a 4-1 record. He opened his year by stopping Ryan Spann in the second round at UFC Fight Night in March, followed by a unanimous decision victory over Serghei Spivac in June.
After dropping a decision to Sergei Pavlovich in August, Cortes-Acosta bounced back with consecutive first-round finishes that earned bonuses. His November campaign included a first-round finish of Ante Delija on November 1st despite an eye-poke incident, then a 82-second knockout over Shamil Gaziev just three weeks later in Qatar on short notice. This relentless pace has propelled the 33-year-old Dominican into the number five heavyweight ranking.
Lewis has operated under entirely different circumstances. The 40-year-old veteran competed only once in 2025, returning from a 14-month layoff to face undefeated Tallison Teixeira at UFC Nashville in July. That fight lasted just 35 seconds, with Lewis dropping Teixeira with a punch following an eye-poke dispute and finishing matters with ground strikes.
The finish secured his 16th career knockout, the most in UFC history, adding to his legend as the promotion’s knockout king. Despite his stoppage victory, Lewis remains ranked number eight in the heavyweight division, still searching for the consistency that eluded him over his previous six fights, where he compiled a 2-4 record dating back to February 2022.
This heavyweight bout sits on the main card of UFC 324, sandwiched between the bantamweight championship fight featuring Sean O’Malley against Yadong Song and featherweight action with Arnold Allen versus Jean Silva, giving it solid positioning as the card develops. The fight carries implications for both men; a Cortes-Acosta victory could put him within striking distance of title contention, while a Lewis finish would instantly inject him back into title conversations despite his layoff.
