Fan Opinion: Shogun vs Machida II Fight Breakdown

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The 28 year old Brazilian Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua is 6ft tall and weighs in at 205lbs with a 76 inch reach. He holds a record of 18-4(15ko, 1sub) and holds a black belt in BJJ. Rua is also well versed in Muay Thai and boxing. Rua fights out of the orthodox stance.

31 year old Lyoto ‘The Dragon’ Machida also hails from Brazil. He is 6ft1in tall and weighs in at 205lbs with a 74 inch reach. He holds a record of 16-0(5ko, 2sub) and has a 3rd dan black belt in Shotokan Karate and a black belt in BJJ. He is also well versed in Sumo and Machida Karate. Lyoto fights out of the southpaw stance.

Now my fight breakdowns are my prediction as to how I think the matches will go based on each fighter’s training history, Records (example; KO or sub victories or losses and how many fights) and on how the styles may contrast. Please don’t go betting the mortgage on what I write but feel free to comment or tweet me as I will only be posting these articles on Lowkick.com.

So its time for the game plans. I feel that Rua is going to be the aggressor. With his brutal Muay Thai I think he will want to end this fight quickly, not leaving anything to the judges. Clinch work, fast hands and leg kicks is what Rua will look to utilize. Machida is obviously no walkover though. I feel he will want to be patient but effective with his counter striking style, inflicting as much damage as possible with knees to the mid section and precise kicks and punches. Don’t be surprised if we see this fight go to the ground once or twice. Rua has brutal ground and pound and it may be a good tool to nullify Machida’s stand up.

How I feel the styles will contrast is that we have a classic striker vs counter striker match. This is what made the last fight such a blast to watch. A brutal war in the stand up was produced as both fighters showed great heart and determination as well as excellent fitness and stand up abilities. Rua with 15 knockouts to his credit will look to finish early but I’m sure we will see a more aggressive style from Machida although most of his wins come by way of decision. As we know from the first fight, the two are well matched and I think we may even see a better brawl than the last outing.

So finally the prediction. I think that we will see an explosive start from both fighters. Rua is really going to turn the heat up early with his devastating striking. Lyoto is slick though he moves well on his feet and can land some solid body shots in the counter offensive. if Rua can manage to pressure Machida enough he may be able to get a clinch or ‘plum’ as it is known in Muay Thai. Some solid knees to the body and head are hard for Machida to shake off but he manages to land good straight left counters and the two will end the round visibly marked around the face and the scorecards are again too close to judge. I feel that the middle rounds will provide more of the same but Rua will score some takedowns. Machida is an expert BJJ practitioner but Rua can still lands some brutal g+p with elbows and wild punches. Later in the fight we will see Machida winding Rua with massive kicks to the mid-section, but Rua is as tough as they come and still comes forward relentlessly. I think the fight will end in round 4, the ref seeing plenty enough of Machida’s blood after a brutal barrage of knees and elbows against the cage from Rua. Shogun for the win by TKO in rd 4 steps up to claim the UFC LHW crown.

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