Predicting Who Will Be First To Defeat Chris Weidman


Chris Weidman’s rise to the top of the middleweight division was as sudden as it was unexpected, at least for the most of us. His humble beginnings were made apparent when it was revealed that ‘The All-American’ couldn’t afford to pay his bills while training for his UFC 162 bout with Anderson Silva.

When you look back at it, it really was a rags-to-riches tale; ‘The Spider’, long considered the best fighter on the globe and a humble, hard working kid from New York looking to make his name. The shocking knockout of Silva at 162 was about as far from reality as this sport has taken me.

With Weidman’s next title defense scheduled for UFC 173 against Vitor Belfort, we have plenty of time to speculate about the future of the current 185-pound boss. My first thought on that front is how long is Weidman going to remain champion, and who will be the one to eventually defeat him?

Many would argue that with the hungry ‘Phenom’ on the horizon, it might not be very long at all before ‘The All-American’ is dethroned. As is quite often the case in MMA, it isn’t really that simple. Belfort is very heavy handed, and has added to his striking arsenal with flashy kicks, but suppose that Weidman is victorious at 173; will the next champion be as much of a surprise as the current one?

The Middleweight division is a very dangerous place to be right now, and it could be argued that most of the top 15 has what it takes to get in the title mix. The bottom end of the top 15 is loaded with wild cards like 7-1 KO expert Yoel Romero, 12-1 Tompkins product Brad Tavares, Francis Carmont and Jacare Souza will battle it out at FN 36, as will former 205-pound boss Lyoto Machida and Gegard Mousasi.

Perhaps there is an unranked fighter just waiting to burst on to the scene, and with the growth of the UFC there may well be the next P4P king in the makings. For now, we’ll stick with the top 15 of the currently ranked fighter. If I had to narrow it down to three viable options, my first would have to be Lyoto Machida.

‘The Dragon’ has some serious power at Middleweight, and has the best style to beat Weidman, at least in my mind. His subtle footwork and timing is a nightmare for wrestlers, and I think that he is currently the best candidate for the job. We know Machida can make it to the top, and a win Saturday against ‘The Dreamcatcher’ could signal the beginning of ‘The Machida Era 2.0’.

My second choice would be Anderson Silva. I know this will probably get a bit of hate, but consider it from a realistic point of view; anything can happen in this sport. Yes Weidman has beaten Silva twice, but does that really hold any bearing at the top end of pro MMA? To say that one of the greatest fighters of all time couldn’t win one out of three matches against the same fighter would be outlandish.

If Silva is able to heal up well and come back in form, Weidman could well be in trouble if he is still at the top. This is by no means a prediction (yet), but it seems foolish to argue against ‘The Spider’ having a great shot at a second reign as champ.

Lastly I’d place Ronaldo de Souza. ‘Jacare’ has added heavy striking to his wide arsenal of weaponry in recent times, and I think he’d be in with a great chance against Weidman. Souza’s ace grappling skills are going to make him hard to take down, at least without getting choked, and his raw power would cause problems for anyone.

Photo: Jayne Kamin-Oncea for USA TODAY Sports

  • cool

  • Machida vs Weidman would be a bad ass fight, really want that to happen 🙂

  • I've come to change my opinion of Weidman. I never gave him the credit he deserved in his fights with Silva. Regardless of Silva,s tomfoolery or the accident in the second fight, Weidman turned up and showed professionalism at the opportunity presented to him.
    Whether he gets beaten now or has a long reign I take my hat off to him and wish him well against Belfort.

  • "To say that one of the greatest fighters of all time couldn’t win one out of three matches against the same fighter would be outlandish."

    Coming from someone who analyzes probability for a living he way in which you analyze the situation is irrational. From your statement, you are implying that it makes sense to look at it now as if they are in a situation where they will fight 3x and people are saying they believe Weidman will win all 3 matches. The reality is that they already fought twice. If Silva fights Weidman again, the real question is "If Anderson and Weidman fight again once, will Anderson win that one fight?" That is a much different question than can Anderson win 1 of 3.

    • wasn't exactly what I was trying to imply, but fair point clownshoes. I was more trying to get to the point that just because weidman defeated him twice before doenst mean silva doesn't have a good chance at beating him. Analyzing probability for a living sounds pretty cool btw

  • Fedor!!

  • Kimbo Slice!.
    . ok that was just plain ludicrous.

  • Weidman beats Vitor….loses to Machida and Jacare.