UFC 167 Betting Odds: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

Posted on November 16, 2013, 09:54 AM by Buster Evans
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UFC 167 will come at us live from Las Vegas tonight, with Georges St-Pierre defending his welterweight belt against top contender Johny Hendricks in what could possibly be the most stacked events of the year. In the co-main event, friends and top ten fighters Rashad Evans and Chael Sonnen will face off. The odds for the full card are:

(Odds taken from http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/mixed-martial-arts)

-Georges St-Pierre (-260) vs Johny Hendricks (+200)

-Chael Sonnen (+155) vs Rashad Evans (-190)

-Robbie Lawler (+300) vs Rory MacDonald (-400)

-Josh Koscheck (EVEN) vs Tyron Woodley (-130)

-Ali Bagautinov (+130) vs Tim Elliott (-160)

-Donald Cerrone (-120) vs Evan Dunham (-110)

-Ed Herman (+170) vs Thales Leites (-210)

-Brian Ebersole (+185) vs Rick Story (-235)

-Edwin Figueroa (+300) vs Erik Perez (-400)

-Jason High (-300) vs Anthony Lapsley (+230)

-Will Campuzano (+325) vs Sergio Pettis (-450)

-Cody Donovan (+265) vs Gian VIllante (-350)

 The Good

GSP v Hendricks

Hendricks is no doubt one of the toughest challenges that GSP will have faced in his career, his wrestling credentials have been well documented and everyone knows about his knockout power. In GSP, Hendricks faces the best wrestler in MMA period. St-pierre also has some of the best footwork in MMA, with a quick sharp jab to go with it. GSP by decision is a safe bet. 

Macdonald v Lawler

This fight is ultimately Macdonald’s to lose, the young fighter has one loss in his career coming to Carlos Condit. ‘Ares’ has more than enough tools to control the fight and is one of the best tacticians in the division.  Macdonald is a clear favourite but the return on him to win outright isn’t very high. While Macdonald by decision sits an attractive +155

Elliott v Bagautinov

Bagautinov being the underdog at +135 is absolute madness in my opinion. The former Sambo champ is a very well rounded fighter and with Greg Jackson in his corner, you know he will have a top game plan going into the fight. Elliott looked great in his last outing against Louis Gaudinot but Bagautinov at +130 to win is too good to pass up.

Figueroa v Perez

If you want to make some easy money put anything on Perez to win, he’s the heavy favorite to win for a reason. Perez to win a decision looks a very tempting bet at +200. 

The Bad

Sonnen v Evans

If this was last year or maybe a few months ago even, I would be saying Evans hands down. Rashad’s inconsistency as of late and Chael’s recent domination over ‘Shogun’ makes me a lot more hesitant than I previously was.  I wouldn’t bet on this fight myself, but if there’s anyone who thinks Sonnen will edge it, a bet on him to win a decision at +200 might be a little bit more appealing to you.

Cerrone v Dunham

This fight is way too close to call, both men are mirror images of each other with excellent kickboxing and some slick BJJ. You have to say Dunham has the better chin, I don’t think any other fighter in the lightweight division could take the knees he did against T.J Grant and continue to fight. I think this fight has “Fight of the Night” written all over it, both men always go to war and at +500 it is more than tempting.

The Ugly

Koscheck v Woodley

I would avoid putting any bet at all on this fight, both fighters have a very similar skillset and both men are really in need of a win. Woodley has the ability to finish the fight early but it all depends on how the first round plays out. I think if Koscheck can make it to the second round relatively unhurt, he will take it by decision as Woodley tends to fade in the later rounds. But it is much too close to place a bet on.

Campuzano v Pettis

Pettis is obviously the better fighter and deserves to be the heavy favorite, but Campuzana is no pushover and has looked impressive in his past five outings since leaving the UFC.  The odds on Campuzano to win with the risk involved is not worth the bet. You never know history may very well repeat itself, Sergio could suffer his first career defeat in his tenth pro outing just like his older brother.

Here are my accumulator picks:

Pick 1:

Bagauntinov to win + GSP to win

Pick 2:

Perez to win + Macdonald by decision

Pick 3:

GSP by decision +Baguntinov +Perez to win

And finally my bonus picks:

Fight of the night – Cerrone v Dunham  - put it on !

Knockout of the night – Woodley

Submission of the night – High


Comments

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  • Brasil
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    Rashad and Ebersole seem like good value to put some money.

    Reply 5 months ago
  • Michael Stephensen
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    Pardon my ignorance. Can someone who is experienced explain how this works?

    I presume that the more negative the number the more likely the odds makers think that fighter it so win? If so how you'd expect a -200 and a +200 in the same fight. How can both fighters be negative like: Donald Cerrone (-120) vs Evan Dunham (-110)?

    Thanks.

    Reply 5 months ago
  • Mike Drahota
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    Michael,

    The skewed odds represent the casino's (or whatever betting establishment) edge. That's why You'd have to bet 190 on Rashad Evans to win 100, but would only win 155 if you bet the same 100 on Chael Sonnen.

    In the case of Cerrone/Dunham, it is such a close fight that it's basically even at -100 each, with the -20 and -10, respectively, as the house take.

    Rarely do you see the odds come out even as such. They can also change rapidly if a ton of money goes in on a fighter at one time, as will probably happen with GSP in Vegas tonight.

    Hope that helps. Let me know if you have any other questions.

    Reply 5 months ago
  • Michael Stephensen
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    Thanks!

    Reply 5 months ago