UFC 150: Henderson vs. Edgar, Cerrone vs. Guillard Staff Predictions
Posted on August 10, 2012, 09:51 AM by Anton GurevichAnton Gurevich
Ben Henderson vs. Frankie Edgar II:
I still believe this fight is simply unnecessary. There was absolutely no controversy in previous encounter between the two, therefore I expect the same outcome this time around. Ben Henderson is simply too big, too strong, and too well-rounded for Frankie Edgar. Yes, Frankie Edgar can win this fight, just like he did against Gray Maynard, but the truth is still out there, written in bold - lightweights like Benderson are the reason Edgar should drop down to Featherweight. Too big, too strong. I expect Ben Henderson to dominate, and getting the job done before championship rounds. Henderson via TKO in Round 2.
Melvin Guillard vs. Donald Cerrone:
It's a tough fight to pick, but I have to go with Cerrone. I think "Cowboy" is more consistent as a fighter, and has the perfect style to beat someone like Melvin Guillard. He has more than enough tools to avoid Guillard's superior KO power. Both fighters are super-exciting, so I'm pretty sure we are up for Fight of the Night candidate in this one. My prediction is Donald Cerrone via Submission in Round 3, but don't be surprised if MG adds another KO victory to his record.
Evan Holober
Ben Henderson vs. Frankie Edgar II:
I'm not particularly confident in either of these picks, and this one is especially tough. Ben earned the decision the first time off of Frankie not having an answered for caught kicks, a big size disadvantage, and one well placed up kick. The kick broke Frankie's nose, and it led to an exaggerated damage factor placed in favor for Henderson. Frankie was able to take Ben down pretty much whenever he felt like it, but Henderson popped back to his feet every time (or reversed position). In the end, the aforementioned upkick and a guillotine attempt at the end of Round 5 turned into top position with ground and pound sealed Ben's victory. I don't believe those certain things will go in his favor this time, but as I said this one could go either way. It really is 50/50 heading in. Frankie Edgar by Unanimous Decision.
Melvin Guillard vs. Donald Cerrone:
Cerrone and Guillard is a great fight on paper. Both guys are extremely dangerous on the feet with Guillard holding a bit of a power/speed advantage, while Cerrone shows more technical acumen. Both are capable wrestlers with Melvin holding a slight advantage because of his explosiveness, and Cerrone is the better submission grappler. However, what goes on between their ears is a different story. The only time Donald has "given" away a fight is when he says he fought to the advantages of Nate Diaz (which I actually disagree with, I think Nate is just a bad style match up for Cerrone). Melvin's career is full of mental miscues; from his failed drug test for Cocaine, to his ugly loss to Rich Clementi Guillard always seems to blow it in big fights (with the only outlier being his main event win against Evan Dunham). I see "The Young Assassin" dropping Cerrone early, but "The Cowboy" weathering the storm to sub the fighter who is maybe most famous for his mental lapses. Donald Cerrone by Submission Rnd 2.
Bryan Fontez
Ben Henderson vs. Frankie Edgar II:
I am a huge fan of Frankie Edgar and as I've said before I love those who let their fighting do the talking, Frankie Edgar is one of those guys. Aside from having the heart of a lion, he is an anomaly in the weight class in that he's undersized yet still better than everyone else, which is simply a testament to his ridiculous skills and talent. With that said, one must keep their mind open to two facts going into this fight... #1 When fighters of this caliber face off, anything can happen, and #2 Frankie Edgar learns from his mistakes and comes back stronger in rematches. However, given even those two facts, it pains me to say this, but I can't help but feel like Benson Henderson's size, endurance, creativity and aggression are going to be simply too much for Edgar to handle. This could easily end in another decision, but something tells me Bendo is gonna be driven to make a statement and put this fight away with a finish. Benson Henderson via TKO Round 4.
Melvin Guillard vs. Donald Cerrone:
I really enjoy watching both of these guys fight. When these two are at their best, they seem to be unstoppable wrecking machines. Guillard could very well be the fastest Lightweight on the planet and Cerrone has some seriously crisp kick boxing and all around striking technique. Both guys are exciting, powerful and veterans of the sport. With all of that said, the winner will depend on which of them comes in more mentally prepared. The only time I've seen Cerrone break mentally and get flustered was against Nick Diaz, aside from that he's been consistent and dominant. Guillard has also had that issue by being over confident and unfocused in the past. But at the end of the day no matter what variables you take into account, I feel like Cerrone is just a little bit better at everything than Guillard. I expect an insane 3-round bloody Bombfest of a fight, with Donald Cerrone winning via Unanimous Decision.
Daniel Cassidy
Ben Henderson vs. Frankie Edgar II:
Taking home the W in the first bout, Henderson is rightfully the favorite. While Edgar is as well rounded as they come, I can't help but pick Henderson to once again emerge Champion. With his speed, cardio and superior strength, I think Henderson will dominate the smaller Edgar, having figured out his style in the first fight. Despite boasting the title of never having been beat in rematches (as the UFC are keen to inform) I wouldn't be surprised to see Bendo get a finish. My prediction is Ben Henderson via R2 submission.
Melvin Guillard vs. Donald Cerrone:
Despite a loss to Nate Diaz to derail his hype, Donald Cerrone will be keen to make a statement against Melvin Guillard, and kick start his run at the 155 belt. Always dangerous, Cerrone boasts an exceptionally well rounded skill set, boasting a Muay Thai background, coupled with his ground game and wrestling skills. Clearly the under dog in the submission department, Guillard has more than enough tools standing to give Cerrone a lot of problems. However, having more ways to win, I think Cerrone will have his hand raised at the final bell. I see Cerrone punishing Guillard standing with leg kicks early, before rocking Guillard and finding a sub. My prediction is Donald Cerrone via R2 sub.
Comments
Yep, I figured I'd be the only one to side with Frankie. I see we all aren't giving Melvin the nod either.
I'm with you on Frankie. I see him getting his hand raised as well. I totally disagree with all of you concerning Guillard though. He is going to be too fast and too powerful for Donald. MG via TKO.
You could very well be right. Melvin has the skill to literally beat anybody at LW in the world. It's the mistakes that always screw him. I'd love to see a Dunham like performance from him.
I had Benson winning this, and I was on my way to bet some money on it, but now that I saw Anton's prediction I'm having some serious doubts.
Thank God for the smart phones, I will rather have a pizza and a couple of beers instead.
last time anton was right with boetsch and barao!
i will put my 50 € on henderson. this is save money.
cerrone vs. guillard is a tough one. my guts tell me that guillard will win...but no money on this one
I have Ben Henderson via decision.
Benson wont finish Frankie if he does win. Frankie will end up point fighting the entire fight and win by Decision.
No ben to can win for days ha!
I'm not sure if it was intended but it sounds like you are insulting Frankie by saying point fighting?
If not then fair enough but to the guys saying Frankie can only win by that method, how is Benson going to win? Bendo hasn't finished an opponent in 2 years while Frankie KO'd the #2 only 2 fights ago.
Bendo may have more power behind his shots but he hasn't finished anyone in the UFC so give Edgar a break
Ayoooo at UFC 129 Bendo finished that guy with an elbow to the nose, Swagilicious. Ben Henderson By Spinning Donkey Kong Slap.
It was a UD over Mark Bocek, Bendo even said in his interview with Rogan that he hates getting decisions
Bendo / Cerrone.
Ben will have hard fight to Frank and too he not brake nose again this fight.Will and have long fight for days. franki and have to make ressel and for take down. ben and will can hold him down and not see for days ha! see and for not Frank to win.love and have Frank win and can have belt agen but can no expekt to can win for to Ben *facepolm* :-) =
Hey Anton, I guess you know better than the people who actually do this for a living and don't just type it up on the internet every fvcking day? Too big, too strong, I guess that makes it.... simply unnecessary?? Hahaha, nice attitude, Champ!
Wow - What did Anton do to you ladies? Anyhow, on paper you got to go with Benderson but I can't help but think that Edgar rematched Penn and Maynard and looked a lot better in those fights. He clearly improved so part of me thinks he could take this - I have no idea! Cerrone has Guillard unless he gets clocked with a "lucky strike" early on.
I dont think Frankie learns from his mistakes, both rematches hes got were practically a copy of the first fights (until Maynard gassed out in the second one and got KO) BJ and Maynard did nor adjust their plan neither so all Fe had to do was to be a bit faster. Don't expect a diferent outcome since Fe will try to repeat his game plan only to find out that Bendo is faster than BJ and Maynard, stronger than him and with great cardio, also Bendo is to creative and he is probably fired up to finish Fe. I see Bendo winning by dec. or finishing the fight in the 4 th round.
Maynard gassed out in both fights because of the pace Frankie put up. He was also getting punched in the face a lot in the second fight. Frankie won every second after the first round.
And he changed up his gameplan against Penn to add in more takedowns in the second fight.
He doesn't have to do much different against Ben. Just turn up the pressure a little bit to edge two more rounds.
That's right Maynard gassed out both times because he got too excited and was not able to pick his shots and finish Fe. But Fe hasn't changed he still thinks he can outpoint everyone in the lw div and instead of trying to finish the figth he keeps trying to control the fight with weak punches and takedowns that lead to nothing, Fe better adjust his game plan for this fight because Bendo has the cardio, the speed and the skills to finish the fight, he should know that at the level of title fight anyone can finish a fight at any given moment. His bigest mistake is that he hasn't released that his lack of willingness to finish his oponents has lead him to have too fight the same guys over and over instead moving to other oponents.
I dont think Frankie learns from his mistakes, both rematches hes got were practically a copy of the first fights (until Maynard gassed out in the second one and got KO) BJ and Maynard did nor adjust their plan neither so all Fe had to do was to be a bit faster. Don't expect a diferent outcome since Fe will try to repeat his game plan only to find out that Bendo is faster than BJ and Maynard, stronger than him and with great cardio, also Bendo is to creative and he is probably fired up to finish Fe. I see Bendo winning by dec. or finishing the fight in the 4 th round.
I got Bendo and Guillard.... Bendo is just too much for Frankie at this point and Guillard, his striking is better (sure Cerrone kicks harder) overall Guillard is a better striker and more athletic. Cerrone tops the ground game but i don't think he can hold Guillard down (if he even gets the TD). Other than that... Guillard been surrounded by BJJ Blackbelts working on his groundgame a lot now so his sub defense should be a lot better... If Guillard's groundgame improved and keeps improving i easily see him becoming a future champ. Its the only thing holding him back at this point and i'm pretty sure he will come prepared. He showcased that a little bit in his last fight... He's getting more comfortable down there...
I don't get people saying Ben is too big and strong more Frankie?
I saw Frankie getting nearly all the TDs, throwing Benson to the ground from the clinch and flooring him in the last.
Yea Frankie got rocked but anyone would get rocked and usually KO'd from a perfect up kick like that.
Benson is obviously a bigger, stronger guy but stop acting like he manhandled Frankie as he clearly didn't.
Agree 100%. I think a lot of people are going to be shocked by the performance Frankie puts on.
Thing is Ben never gave any thought really for TD defence. He was unconcerned by it as he new it would never be able to stay there. He almost never even tried to defend the TD. He also never really went for any. I don't think it was smart of him but he certainly made no effort in the area and also with the kicks he kept landing even though frankie kept catching them. He just had no respect for frankies finishing capability and threw them with reckless abandon. If both guys fight top form there is no reason for Frankie to be victorious.
I have watched the first match 5 times and scored it for Frankie very closely 48-47 each and every time.
Even if you give Ben the win, saying it was not controversial or close is a crazy statement.
I wouldn't be surprised if Ben wins the rematch but I' taking Frankie by UD 49-46.
I think thats the problem with Fe, he does not fight to finish fights he tries to outpoints his oponents and when the fights is that close everyone sees what they want to see and they can make a case out of their perspective. Fe has to be more agresive, he needs to constantly look for the finish instead of trying to get the W by Dec or hoping his oponent gets tired and sloopy so he can finish him. I mean GSP gets hard critics for getting decisions even when he is so dominant, the same thing happened to AS but the diferenc is that Fe is not as dominant as them nor even Dominick.
Frankie is not as physically strong as nearly everyone he fights and always at a striking power disadvantage.
The guys at the top of the divisions are so good it's near impossible to stop them, especially in the lighter classes. The only time finishes come is when one guy is an outstanding finisher and has huge power (Silva, Aldo) or that much better than his opponent (Jones).
Frankie is naturally without huge striking power and has fought guys either in or borderline top 10 P4P for the last couple of years, yet he still managed to finish one of them who was much bigger than him.
Frankie basically out-lands anyone he fights and lands big time shots in all his fights, just they usually aren't powerful enough to finish.
Edgar is very aggressive and if he went non stop for the finish he would not be able to match power for power with his opponents and get caught.
As the saying goes - go out to finish and it probably won't come, go out to win and the finish will probbaly come.
Something along those lines anyway lol.
It is obviously not the case for everyone but Frankie proved it against Maynard, he never went out going full blast for a stoppage but by going in there and fighting to win it came all by itself.
Well said.
Thats pretty harsh words for Frankie considering the level of guys he is fighting. Maybe the guy just doesn't have the power to knock every guy out. As far as the cerrone guillard fight i see it going kinda like the lauzon guillard fight. Guillard will come out swinging and get caught with a good shot and cerrone will tap him out.