Four X-Factors ahead of Silva vs. Sonnen II
Posted on July 7, 2012, 10:47 AM by Anton GurevichAfter nearly two years since their first fight, Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen will finally meet in a rematch. This is without a doubt one of the biggest fights in MMA history, with both fighters looking to leave the arena victorious.
Silva is a clear favorite, but it looks like Chael Sonnen has finally achieved his goal of getting into the Brazilian’s head. Silva’s miraculous victory at UFC 117 is an all-time MMA classic, but it’s clear as sun that “The Spider” still has a lot to prove in tonight’s rematch. From Chael Sonnen’s weight cut to Anderson Silva’s shoulder strike – here are five important factors that could affect the outcome of Silva vs. Sonnen II:
Chael Sonnen’s rough weight cut
Sonnen’s face looked sucked in during the weigh-in. The Oregonian cut 20lbs in just 24hrs, which could play an important factor during the biggest fight of his MMA career. It’s a five-round fight, and Sonnen’s body needs to be in the best shape possible to go toe-to-toe with Silva. Chael Sonnen’s nutritionist, Mike Dolce, is one of the best in the business, but he has a tremendous responsibility on his shoulder to make sure the gangster from West Linn, Oregon, is not KO-prone due to severe dehydration.
Biggest fight in UFC history
Silva vs. Sonnen II is promoted as the biggest fight in Ultimate Fighting Champonship history. Both Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen are no strangers to danger when it comes to big fights, but I’m still pretty sure that the sold out MGM Grand Garden Arena will play its role on Saturday night. It will be interesting to see whether the crowd becomes pro-Sonnen after yesterday’s incident at the weigh-in, which could significantly boost the challenger’s confidence.
Silva’s (over)confidence
Personally, I think Anderson Silva might be a little bit overconfident coming to this fight. Like I said in our official predictions post, Chael Sonnen is a fierce competitor, and if Silva thinks he will dominate this fight from start to finish, he’s up for a long night inside the Octagon. Anderson Silva has absolutely nothing positive to take from his first fight with Chael Sonnen. Yes, he won with a perfectly executed submission maneuver, but it’s also important to remember that Sonnen dominated the fight in both stand up and on the ground.
Michael Bisping
Chael Sonnen struggled to execute his gameplan against Michael Bisping. The Brit was able to defend a large portion of Chael Sonnen’s takedown attempts, and looked solid on his feet. Sonnen was able to grind out a victory, but his performance left some unanswered questions. It will be interesting to see whether Anderson Silva is “easier” to take down than Michael Bisping. It’s a huge question for Chael Sonnen, who is most likely to rely on his exceptional wrestling skills to become the new UFC Middleweight champ.
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Comments
I have another X-factor, it will have been 315 days since Anderson's last fight.
Silva has been fighting twice a year since 2007, and before that he used to fight 3 times a year.
At the age of 37, is taking almost a year off a good idea, especially when you're fighting style relies so much on timing and hand speed?
very good point.
@cranestyle
Great point, but I've always thought Silva fighting twice year is the reason why he has retained his athleticism in terms of flexibility and agility despite his age. Also I'm sure you'd agree that it's not by chance that he's fought twice a year son consistently, but 315 days might be pushing it. I hope not though
I'd say that's less important against wrestlers....had more of a question in the belfort vs silva match imo where timing and hand speed were a real issue against a greater threat
Sure, you gotta use it or you lose it.
I think Silva has been good for so long, it's easy to jump on the things he doesn't do well or wonder if the holes he has in his game will finally cost him the win.
Chael is 35, so not that far behind, but his grinding style doesn't depend on reflexes as much, so might be aging better.
I also think that Stann and Bisping were tougher opponents than Okami and Belfort.
I've been ripping on Silva as a person because he annoys me...or his social personae anyway. I want him to lose....but he's still one of my favorite fighters to watch.
"Silva as a person because he annoys me...or his social personae anyway"
His social personae?
Why? Could you be more specific?
Do have any problems with Sonnen's social personae?
I think the whole reason silva is so overconfident is down to chaels last performance, the whole idea of your only as good as your last fight, if chael does what he did againt bisping, he his gonna get KO'ed he stood infront of him and had very little movement, no head movement and he wasn;t switching it up making angles, coming in from all directions from the take downs, just a straight line, if he doesnt change levels and directions in this fight silva will simply keep him at bay with his reach and pick him apart.
He might have bought into the anti-Bisping camp's propaganda, when they said he had no power, and felt it was best to eat a few hits while looking for the takedown. He sounded very surprised when interviewed afterward by how hard Bisping actually hits. Between that nasty surprise and how easily Bisping recovered from being taken down in the first two rounds, he probably realized that he'd undrestimated his opponent a bit.
I get your point but after eating a few shots, and finding out that bisping hits harder than imagined, surely after the first round he would have thought 'you know what head movement is key and so is changing it up so i dont get repeatedly punched in the face by someone who has more power than i originally anticipated'.......hes a smart dude, but i think your right on the underestimating him, he possibly could have not worked on his takedowns thinking he would easily secure them, especially against a dude from britain as the standard of wrestling is pi.ss weak over here
Yeah, Sonnen's got good head movement normally, but it is something you have to practice. If you don't drill something leading up to a fight, the skill set just won't be there at first. Look at Fitch vs. BJ Penn. Fitch is one of the hardest people in MMA to grapple against, yet he didn't work on his defensive wrestling at all against BJ, and it took him a round and a half to get his head back in the game.
Man, you are sooo biased Anton. Shael cuts weigth since he was 9 years old and never ever had any issue, this is just strategy/excuse.
You fail to mention the 14x T in the first fight and AS ribs... The lack of T could be the reason for the Bispin performance also.
The shoulder thing was AWESOME. So the crowd in Vegas could have loved it just as i did.
What is your problem. You just dont like Andy or is it something else?
The shoulder thing was awesome? Are you serious?
So is it alright if I do it to you then? You think it's alright for someone to give you a dirty cheap shot, just because they're pissed off?
You think it's completely fine for a grown-ass man who happens to be the champion to act like a child throwing a temper tantrum?
huge silva fan, but the shoulder thing did two things, firstly show how sonnen has won the pyscological war before the fight, v.important. Secondly is loses silva fans, he is probably gonna have a massive backlash when he gets in the cage n everyone is booing him. Thirdly its unprofessional, its basically assualt, paul daley got kicked out of the UFC, i know a shoulder to the jaw aint as bad as a sucker punch, but its about principle, dana has to punish silva for what he did otherwise he is shooting himself in the foot and other fighters will act the same way.
i was there and everyone around me loved it!!!
My unbiased opinion says that if Anderson cares so much about respect and martial arts, then he should have enough respect for himself not to stoop to a level that he believes is below him.
Weight cut is not an issue...I dont think Chael would allow his conditioning coach speak about it if it was something negative and would hinder his performance....
I guess i made three points......
Couldn't agree more. I can read people very well and I've never liked Anderson Silva. I knew he was that kind of person without him ever even having to actually do anything wrong.
Anderson Silva, as talented as he is. Is an arrogant, deceitful and selfish human being. He's a complete idiot, who simply pretends to respect all of his opponents and everyone else around him.
He only cares about himself and what pleases HIM. I saw it in the Leites fight, I saw it in the Maia fight. That's not a humble champion, that's just a over-talented douchebag, who doesn't deserve the skills that he has.
As unlikely as it is... I hope he loses all of his fans,and I hope Chael finishes him. Hard work, focus and dertimnation will prevail.
Anton forgot the biggest X-Factor... Chael Sonnen promised his father just before he died, that he would become a Champion. Don't underestimate that kind of integrity. He won't be defeated easily if at all. Not without a serious fight.
100% agree.
@bryan what was wrong with the leites fight everytime silva would come in leites would fall to gurad whats silva suppose to do jump in?? no if u wabt the fight there u take it there!!! silva hit him with sooo many combos and leg punches and the dont even know what to call it the behind the leg kick.
golly Bryan with your skills you should be on Criminal Minds!
It kills me to hear all the logic in defending either fighter with their actions. But seriously.... to not think AS would do anything after years of this disrespectful talk is ridiculous. For Sonnen to talk this way even after losing the first fight had to be extremely annoying for AS. I'm surprised all he has done is give him a shoulder strike. To say AS is ****y and disrespectful and whatever else but then not say the same about Chael is just being biased.
Anton you would think Silva is overconfident.
"I'm going to finish him in the first round" sounds over confident given the last fight.
2nd round... CLOSE NUFF
I have to smile when I see these two huge fighters squaring off and I hear they are called Middle Weights. Both will be easily well over 200 lbs at fight time. Both fighters could easily fight at LHW--and they would still have to cut weight to 205.
I think the biggest X factor for Anderson Silva has been the "Dominant Champion Aura". I have seen a number of aggressive fighters who fought him seem psyched out and timid when facing the champ. Sonnen was the opposite in his last fight--and fought Silva as if he was a man, and beatable, not an MMA god.
Sonnen seemed great in the standup only because of the threat of his ground game. A dominant wrestler can throw off a top striker without good TDD since the striker is reluctant to commit too much in his strikes and get caught with a level change and takedown.
The X factor is: Does Sonnen still see Silva as human and beatable?
I find it interesting that when Sonnen plays the trash-talking game that fans and media think he is promoting the fight--but when Silva suddenly seems crazy angry--he is being serious--and is not promoting a fight.
Either way, both fighters will be a lot richer after this fight--win or lose.
I'm having five good friends over and I got the drinks and snacks loaded up. My wife is going out. I like both fighters (although I hope Sonnen wins). I can't lose to night unless a meteor pulverizes my house.
BRING IT ON!!!
@ Hateocracy and Silvaisking - think about writing up an article and submitting to Anton. I'd love to hear about your experiences there. Have fun.
And dont take TRT from stranger when in vegas!
@Bruce I'm coming over warm up those nachos lol
I think after watching the first fight Anderson was playing possum. I don't think he wanted it to go all five rounds but his gameplan was to get a submission and to do that you have to hit the ground. He obviously wasn't going to take chael down. In like water he talks about letting chael take him down to get the submission. If you watch the fight without bias you see chaels ground and pound was sloppy and ineffective. Anderson seemed barely effected after the fight and I am not just talking about cuts and swelling. Chael is an average ufc fighter who has hyped himself up incredibly to make it seem like he is better than he is. He barely if at all beat bisping and was embarassed by Maia and fihlo. The only fight he looked good in the ufc was stann.
An old out of prime Jeremy horn beat chael 3 times. He has been submitted about ten times. The guy is a joke. I can't stand him. I rarely vote for Anderson. But tonight yep
If Silva goes through Sonnen like a hot knife through butter I will become a disciple of yours. Good logic and prognostication if you're right.
@ KFR - party starts at 7 central time. Better get walking, I'm in Manitoba.
@moves I agree with almost everything you have said, however I don't think sonnen is a 'joke' as you say he is a very high level wrestler and that is always the strikers kryptonite (well mostly) that said Silva is going to beat him bad as if I was still a step child ( and yes i have red hair) lol
No he is a great wrestler I agree but it's mma. Just like Royce Gracie is a master at bjj. He is a terrible modern mma. Anderson is by far not my favorite personality but I have to respect his technique and most importantly his record facing the top guys in his division. Chael on the other hand has an average record fighting top guys. He has an average record fighting mid level guys too. He is no gsp. And I have feeling he will get romped. But what the hell do I know.
I said he is a joke because he is. Everything he says is a joke. His record is a joke. His personal life is a joke. He is a cheater in and outside the ufc.
Yes. The shouldet bump was awesome. I beleive verbal abuse is as bad as fisical abuse. Shael started it so Andy is just responding in hi own form of abuse.... Fire with fire. Lote of biased hipocrits here. Peace!
Physical abuse is as bad as verbal abuse? Which would you prefer - five punches in the face or five comments like "I want your wife to make me a steak - medium rare and that I'll slap her on the back side".
Call me crazy but I'll take the comments. My wife can take it.
Your wife can take it? Wow. Disrespect my lady and that will be the last. You let people talk about your kids too?
My wife has a sense of humor. You're disrespecting you're wife my implying she has none. Relax big guy, you're taking it all too seriously.
One of our retrievers is very big even though he is only a 14 months. He got in the pool and panicked thrashing all over the place trying to get out. When my wife tried to steer him towards to stairs he clawed both her shoulders leaving long finger like bruises. This morning in our urgent care I had to stitch up a guy who was stabbed in a fight last night. When I arrived home my wife was on the drive way, in a tank top, chatting with a bunch of neighbors. We had to endure a bunch of jokes about spousal abuse. It was meant as a joke and so whether in poor taste or now we didn't get upset. After this scared 20 year old I stitched up at work this morning I realize some things are important and some things are jokes. I suspect your wife gets it (she lives with you). It would probably help her if you could get a sense of humor too. If you want to get offended about something get offended about something get offended about the outdated use of the term "negro" in your user name.
Let me put my original question regarding physical vs verbal abuse to you in another way: which would you prefer more to watch your wife punched in the face or steak / back side comment? What about your kids? Because the question wasn't "would let my wife or kids be insulted" It was which is worse: Watching your wife or kids be punched in the face or hearing them insulted. Which would you choose Bozo
Love the long reply about my sense of humor Bruce. It's easy to see if I have one or not. I'm one of the few on this site who for years have definitely not taken myself so seriously. I don't wish to insult you but let you know that some people do take verbal insults seriously. AS has shown great restraint in letting it go so long. Some of the violence that goes on in the world could be avoided if jokes weren't made. It's not always funny to the person it's being said about.
Agreed. Well said.
Btw. I am in Brasil and everyone i spoke to here found the shoulder bump very well deserved. Nothing to hurt, just to punk him and put him in his place.... Like an appetizer for what is coming.
BTW, the shoulder bump obviously didn't hurt Sonnen. It hurt Silva (image, class etc)
90% of all bullying is performed via verbal abuse. We all know how devastating it can be...children commite suicide because of it, so yes. Verbal can be as bad as fisical specially if it accumulate over time.... If people did not think like you Bruce it would not happen.... Verbal can be as bad as fisical.
Basil - that is ridiculous. Verbal abuse is devastating because it involves psychological hurt. The victim feels terrible as you have said. Do you think that doesn't happen with physical abuse?!?! Of course it does. Both are terrible but having been verbally abused and spanked often by my father until I was an adult I can tell you they are both bad. I'm not disagreeing with what you are saying about how bad it is but...the physical is worse.
In addition, I think we can reasonably assume that the affect of verbal abuse that you are talking about won't happen to Anderson Silva. He considers the source. So...give us a break.
http://blogs.theprovince.com/2012/07/03/spanking-children-leads-to-mental-health-issues-as-adults-suggests-canadian-study/
Bruce: Words definetly cut deep, remember in the Ultimate fighter house the comment that was made to Chris Leben about him being a fatherless bastard. that really devastated him.
The comments Chael has made towards anderson Silva however have never been that low. He has joked about spanking the wife, cooking a steak and brazilians having no computers.
Getting physically abused or verbally abused both cause long term psycological damage. In the child protection department, I use to investigate cases of child abuse. the worse thing about this is even though the children were being harmed physically by one or both parents, they rarely wanted to be removed from the parent who is abusing them because they are so afraid. Saddest shit you will ever see in your life. And many of these people who abuse come across as nice people when in the company of adults and you would never know until you photograph bruises, see lacerations, burns on the children often reported by school administrators.
Martial arts is great for kids. I would recommend training kids from a young age 6 and above. They carry that confidence throughout their lives.
Incidentally, it was definitely martial arts and achieving a black belt that gave me the confidence to overcome that upbringing and move on in life. When I hear people talk about the negatives of MMA I just think of all the good it does.
I find Silva annoying, condescending and arrogant. I think Chael is great for stepping outside the box and saying something other than I'll give 110% blah blah blah.
But come on, he just bumped him! Big deal. This is a stare down. It's about time Anderson added a little spice.
Bruce, since we are going personal i also took my share of beating when i was a kid but the things that i cant seem to forget are the ones i heard. So i respectfully disagree.
Also the negatives in MMA imo are the things Shael brings to the table: disrespect, verbal abuse, prejudice, cheating and the notion that all goes to promote and make an extra buck.
Brasil: I like Anderson as a fighter, but Love or hate Chael, Anderson really has to thank Chael for promoting this fight.
Imagine if Chael was respectful throughout the whole two years. This fight would not even be talked about.
Anderson Silva has a free promotor (Chael Sonnen). Thats only going to make Silva richer with PPV buys.
When Anderson retires he will look back and see that he recieved more money for his fights with Chael then any other fighter in the history.
Just think Andersons family benefits from this. The more you hear about brazilian fighters the more people take notice. Indirectly chael is giving Brazil extra air time....
Money is very very cool for sure. But we do ponder other things.... No disrespect to Americans here but they do value money a bit more than us.