Just how good are Carlos Condit's chances against Georges St. Pierre?
Posted on August 29, 2012, 11:32 AM by Mike DrahotaWith betting odds just recently coming out for November's long-awaited return of UFC Welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre, the discussion of his bout with Carlos Condit begins to heat up. Medically cleared to fight yesterday, GSP has come in as a quite sizable favorite over the interim champ Condit. Perhaps this has something to do with the huge amount of controversy stemming from Condit's acquiring of the interim belt over Nick Diaz. More likely, it has something to do with the long reign of St. Pierre at 170 lbs., although he has not defended that title since April of 2011, a lifetime by MMA standards. Does Carlos Condit stand a good chance at dethroning the true Welterweight king? Let's take a look at why or why not.
First off, Condit underwent a ton of flack for his highly, let's say, evasive style in his February bout with Nick Diaz. He is not the only Greg Jackson's fighter to fall under this scrutiny as of late, as Clay Guida lost to Gray Maynard employing the same “gameplan”. However, Condit won, albeit controversially, by utilizing some effective leg kicks and avoiding the well-known boxing of the Stockton superstar. It was not a fight the fans were happy to see play out as such. Many still feel Diaz is the rightful interim champ. However, Condit holds the belt and Diaz is suspended, so we stand at this point. Will a movement-heavy, point style fight work against the wrestling-focused GSP? I would have to say no, not at all. Diaz loves to stand in front of you, peppering his opponent with multi-level punches. GSP, especially if fully healed from his knee injury, will mix it up with several takedown attempts. Diaz is not so interested in this, he would rather goad his opponent’s pride into a boxing match that he can dominate.
So, if Condit recognizes this, and he most likely does, what will be his efforts to combat the different animal that GSP truly is? Condit's submission skills are no doubt world-class, but can he get St. Pierre into a disadvantageous position in order to submit him? I would say that would be something that is very difficult, as we have seen GSP submitted only once his entire career against a prime, surging Matt Hughes. Will he hold the advantage in the striking department? Again, it is possible but highly improbable, as St. Pierre has shown a very well-rounded striking game, mixing up his karate with Muay Thai and some strong boxing from famed trainer Freddie Roach. Condit is a great fighter at Welterweight, but if he shows up with a performance similar to his last fight, he may be in for a long night of wrestling. Of course, it all hinges on just how healthy GSP has returned, but early predictions look like another decision victory for GSP to me. If GSP does pull off what many are favoring him to do, is Anderson Silva the next fight he should take? Welterweight has grown increasingly talented in his stead, after all. What do you think?
Further Reading: Georges St. Pierre medically cleared to fight, will battle Condit at UFC 154
Comments
It's a fight and therefore any man stands a chance against another.
That being said, in terms of his chances of winning, they are very low.
He might of been out for 18 months but do not forget who and what Georges-Saint. Pierre is.
If you have forgotten don't worry just watch UFC 154 and you'll find out.
Saying Carlos has low chances, even though at any point he could KO or catch GSP in an armbar or guillotine I don't think he will.
GSP is just too controlling and dominant, without a weak point and his biggest strength is his unparralled wrestling matching up against Condit's wrestling which is his weakness.
KFC Double Shot
Condit's ground game is sick, never mind his wrestling. Watch his WEC fights and educate yourself. If GSP takes him down he just might get submitted.
When Keith is famous (more than now) I hope he remembers who coined the phrase KFC (along with MindKontrol's "double shot").
Remember us little people KFC, remember us little people.
GSP isn't John Alessio or Brock Larson. He has one of the best all around ground game's in MMA. IF it goes to the ground Condit will be destroyed.
Educate myself?
Why don't you watch the Ellenberger, Kampmann and MacDonald fights were Condit was stuck on his back and couldn't sub them... so now he is suppose to do this to GSP who is the best wrestler in MMA and has amazing sub defense?
If you haven't noticed Carlos's game is all about the stand up now and when he's on his back he is focusing on sweeps rather than subs.
Looks like your the one needing to brush up on this subject before you start making condescending remarks
Hard to argue with your point Keith
Boom!!! KFC delivers a napalm bomb.
How did that KFC Stinger taste Cagerage???
LMAO
Comparing Condit's performance with Guida's is a little bit unfair. Condit landed over 150 'significant' strikes and was certainly engaging and landing a lot more than Guida. He also landed some beautiful combos, such as the leg and headkick combo in the 4th round that would have at least rocked most fighters. The fact that Nick walked through a lot of those strikes is a result of how awesomely tough he is, the drive and determination he showed in that fight to keep coming forward made Condit look a lot worse than he actually was.
I thought Condit had a much better chance until the Diaz fight.
Lets see who shows up this time.
The Diaz fight proved he can stick to a game plan when he wants. If anything it proves he has a better chance (although that chance is still close to nil).
He stuck to that game plan because he didnt have a choice. Any other plan and he would have gotten his azz kicked proper.
I funnied your post, didnt weak it.
Ok.
I think if Gsp wins he will vacate the title and move up in weight to fight Silva leaving room for Rory to make a run at the WW title.
Question is will Gsp ever comeback down to WW should this be the case.
Kinda reminds me of the saying "a fighter is only as good as his last fight".
Everybody is really quick to dismiss Condit as a "safety" fighter. Keep in mind half his wins are from ko/tko.
Actually, Carlos Condit did finish more than 80% of his fights. As bad as he was in his last fight, it's pretty safe to conclude that it was more of an aberration than anything else. He is one of the best finishers in MMA . Unfortunately, the "safety fighter" nickname is already taken by either John Fitch or Georges The Safest - Pierre (formerly known as the "Georges Rush St Pierre").
I have Carlos Condit via TKO - round 2 :)
Don't forget, GSP may be an excellent wrestler BUT he is also a Karate fighter. Point fighting won't work. That said, Condit has never point fought in his life. He may have been moving a lot against Diaz but he was trying to hurt, not score. The other thing to consider is ring rust, luckily for Georges, Carlos will have almost as much as he does. All in all, I would give an edge to GSP but not a huge one. Hopefully he will try to make a statement with this fight and not rack up another decision.
Agree with your statement about GSP but not the ringrust thing - GSP will have been out for 18 months come November and in that time Carlos has had two fights against top 10 opponents, one of them being a 5 round cardio draining fight (good experience to have going in against GSP).
Carlos has been on the side since February but GSP has that and an extra 10 months
True. I thought it had been longer. That said, this is GSP he is facing so six months and counting is still too much inactivity.
I see this one as either man's fight to or ose
GSP is no te mover or striker or submission fighter that Condit is
GSP My be slighly bette rin wrestling or grappling
bt for the lst few years has done just enough to win and no more
Chief, you are correct GSP is not the mover, striker or submission fighter that Condit is, he is much better and when the fight happens you will see his skillset dominate and win.
Additionally, just enough to win and no more; it sounds as though you can't comprehend the mindset that this champion has, here's a hint think chess not checkers.
I used to be a real fan of GSP and still appreciate him despite the run of safety first wins he has had of late.
Oh I understand his mindset more than you might suspect
but more from a fighter's aspect than a chess player's.
Over 200 wrestling bouts, over 50+ street/bar fights, nearly 20 boxing bouts (only 3 amateur) and doing a dozen or so one on one "my style against your style" MMA before there was even such a term gives me some concept of fighting, winning and losing
I have seen him let chances to go for the finish go past him apparently because going for them meant taking a risk.
That is safety first to me.
I prefer to see even champions take a risk on the finish than a safety first win by decision.
I do like GSP but still think this could go either way
I respect eveyone's opinion and seldom assume I understand their thoughts or background
Condit has been matched pretty tough since he came to the UFC and despite his strategy did get the win over Diaz and it will stay that way until/unless they rematch
This could be the 1st of 3 with these guys for GSP needs a foil ala frazier-Ali to cement his legacy
and if it isn't Diaz and unless it is Silva
Condit might fill the bill
Comparing the Condit/Diaz fight to Guida/Maynard makes no sense. Not even close.
1. There was absolutely no controversy in Condit's fight with Diaz. He went out there, played his own game (not Diaz's) and won. That's it.
Better come out with a game plan, not a game face, next time Diaz.
2. However GSP is a whole different animal. He can shut Condit down completely – like he did with Koschek. But coming after an operation and a long lay off... Who knows? It is not beyond comprehension that he could lose.
Yea I agree Condit won a tough fight but IMO not controversial at all and I have no problem with how he fought
Haha well obviously if you thought he won, it probably won't be controversial to you. The article said it was controversial because plenty of people thought Carlos should have lost. GSP is going to win btw.
Nobody talks about Condit's ground game. The guy is a freak on the mat. All but one of his WEC title defenses were by sub.
*WEC. The WEC was a talent pool for the lighter classes but not so much for anything above LW.
No doubt he has great subs but not good enough to catch GSP
Carlos will do awesome! He's been training with rodeo clowns.
carlos has a good chance even though I think gsp is better and more well rounded..
the question will be how much do the injury effect his game and mind...
those leg kicks of condit could do some serious damage to gsp.
and always this talk about anderson silva fight, gsp still has a lot to take care of in WW. Diaz, Ellenberger and hendricks are all solid contenders for the title...
its hardly fair not to include Kampmann in this equation considering Ellenberger recently lost to him and Diaz has not shown much desire to fight in the UFC anytime soon
Somewhere In Stockton,California
Yo Nate,Bet you he gonna throw that spinning shit- Nick Diaz
that asshole!
GSP's ability to neutralize his opponents strengths is one of his unique skills that wins him fights, that being said Condit has had a lot of time to study GSP's skills and as both Jackson fighters they may have a similar mindset. I wonder if GSP will train with Rory McDonald in preparation for this fight - after all Rory was close to beating Condit
A lay off is definitely a disadvantage. Call is ring rust or what ever I think the lay off is significant enough to tip the balance to Condit. I am a huge fan of GSP but I think GSP will be the underdog in the match up.
If as you say that you are a huge GSP fan then you should know that his preparation is second to none; Condit will lose because of this aspect.
condit wins beats kampman then we see condit n rory mcdonald 2 end of story
GSP will be out to prove to himself that he the best in his division; his dismantling of Condit will be technical and complete.
his chances aren't very high if he can't keep it standing or if he backs up the whole fight like he did with nick diaz but on the other hand if and when gsp takes him down i think he has a slight advantage on the ground because i think his bjj is slightly better than gsps because hes more aggressive when going for submissions he stays busy on the bottom and he switches from submission to another submission