Just how good are Carlos Condit's chances against Georges St. Pierre?Posted on August 29, 2012, 11:32 AM by Mike Drahota
With betting odds just recently coming out for November's long-awaited return of UFC Welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre, the discussion of his bout with Carlos Condit begins to heat up. Medically cleared to fight yesterday, GSP has come in as a quite sizable favorite over the interim champ Condit. Perhaps this has something to do with the huge amount of controversy stemming from Condit's acquiring of the interim belt over Nick Diaz. More likely, it has something to do with the long reign of St. Pierre at 170 lbs., although he has not defended that title since April of 2011, a lifetime by MMA standards. Does Carlos Condit stand a good chance at dethroning the true Welterweight king? Let's take a look at why or why not.
First off, Condit underwent a ton of flack for his highly, let's say, evasive style in his February bout with Nick Diaz. He is not the only Greg Jackson's fighter to fall under this scrutiny as of late, as Clay Guida lost to Gray Maynard employing the same “gameplan”. However, Condit won, albeit controversially, by utilizing some effective leg kicks and avoiding the well-known boxing of the Stockton superstar. It was not a fight the fans were happy to see play out as such. Many still feel Diaz is the rightful interim champ. However, Condit holds the belt and Diaz is suspended, so we stand at this point. Will a movement-heavy, point style fight work against the wrestling-focused GSP? I would have to say no, not at all. Diaz loves to stand in front of you, peppering his opponent with multi-level punches. GSP, especially if fully healed from his knee injury, will mix it up with several takedown attempts. Diaz is not so interested in this, he would rather goad his opponent’s pride into a boxing match that he can dominate.
So, if Condit recognizes this, and he most likely does, what will be his efforts to combat the different animal that GSP truly is? Condit's submission skills are no doubt world-class, but can he get St. Pierre into a disadvantageous position in order to submit him? I would say that would be something that is very difficult, as we have seen GSP submitted only once his entire career against a prime, surging Matt Hughes. Will he hold the advantage in the striking department? Again, it is possible but highly improbable, as St. Pierre has shown a very well-rounded striking game, mixing up his karate with Muay Thai and some strong boxing from famed trainer Freddie Roach. Condit is a great fighter at Welterweight, but if he shows up with a performance similar to his last fight, he may be in for a long night of wrestling. Of course, it all hinges on just how healthy GSP has returned, but early predictions look like another decision victory for GSP to me. If GSP does pull off what many are favoring him to do, is Anderson Silva the next fight he should take? Welterweight has grown increasingly talented in his stead, after all. What do you think?