UFC 145: Jon Jones vs. Rashad Evans LowKick.com Staff Predictions
Posted on April 20, 2012, 05:17 AM by Anton Gurevich
Anton Gurevich: It’s hard to bet against someone like Jon Jones. UFC Light Heavyweight champ is one of the best fighters to ever compete in Mixed Martial Arts, introducing unorthodox striking, high level wrestling, unpredictable submission game, and all-overall mental strength that make him truly one of the best. I think Rashad Evans has every chance to defeat Jones. Like it or not, he has that “inside info” on the champ, in combination with long months of trash talk that definitely will play their role inside the Octagon on Saturday. However, I think it’s Jones’ fight to lose, mostly due to the incredible reach advantage he has on Evans, and the diversity of his game, which could leave Evans behind when it comes to surprising your opponent. Something tells me this fight will remind fans of Anderson Silva’s victory over Vitor Belfort. My pick is Jones via TKO in Round 1.
Mike Drahota: Finally the most hyped fight in MMA history is upon us, and we will get to see an end to the trash-talking once and for all. Atlanta will be absolutely electric with the buzz created by all of the media exposure in the months leading up to this fight. With no love seemingly lost between the two former friends, my heart wants to root for the underdog Rashad Evans here, but I can't seem to forget about how Lyoto Machida knocked Evans out, but later got choked out in brutal fashion by Jones. Jon Jones is just a runaway freight train in my eyes right now. My head tells me that he will be on quite the long title run, but who knows, anything can happen. I see Jones finishing Evans via 3rd-round T(KO).
Daniel Cassidy: Finally after what seems like forever, the rivalry between Jon Jones and Rashad Evans comes to a head. With many of my colleague's picking Jones, I think many, including "Bones" himself, are overlooking "Suga". Coming in to this fight off of just a single career loss, Evans rides a 4 fight win streak. A true mixed martial artist, he displayed the skill set that won him the Light Heavyweight title a few years ago. A dangerous wrestler with dynamite in his hands, Evans can give any opponent fits. In the fight against Jones he faces a pretty serious reach advantage, but will use his speed and explosiveness to take the fight to Jones. For me, one of Evans's greatest attributes is the way he switches levels, from striking to wrestler, in split seconds, and will use this to put Jones on his back and punish him. I think Rashad Evans reclaims his 205lb title via Round 2 TKO.
Bryan Fontez: There are some picks that are just next to impossible to make, and when that happens, I try to pretend that I have a gun to my head in order to force an answer out of myself. With that said, I am a huge fan of Rashad Evans and I'm dying for the upset. Is it possible? Yes. Likely?That's arguable. But no matter how many times I play it out in my head, I always conclude that Jon Jones is just too dynamic and creative, with simply too many advantages in multiple areas for me to pick against him. With that said, I hope I'm wrong when I predict... Jon Jones Via Unanimous Decision.
Evan Holober: I don't believe this fight will live up to the past year or so of hype. Rashad Evans has looked good in dominating Tito Ortiz and Phil Davis, but I believe both were a bit overrated at the time (especially Ortiz). Rashad might be a bit quicker, but Jones has the strength advantage by a mile. I see Jones picking apart Rashad as he uses his reach effectively. Then as he starts to get more comfortable begin to take him down, and beat him up badly on the ground. Evans will start to wither under the assault and the official will be forced to save him around 3 or 4. Jones TKO 3.
Comments
I'm with GSP when he says we will know who will win this fight after the 1st round. We will get to see if Rashad's attempts at putting pressure, going in the inside, taking jones down will work. Who is going to impose his will ? Tho I believe that even if Rashad can be successful in the first round, Jones showed he is capable of adjusting.
If Rashad's moves has no effects on Jones round 1, i can't see him winning. Jones by TKO round 2,3,4 or 5.
And just im curious, if JJ win what is left for him as a LHW, who will be the next challenger?
If its not Rashad who can beat JJ as a LHW?
Will he move to HW?
I'm picking Jones using my head because he is on of the best fighters to ever step in the Octagon.
I can't choose with my heart though, it is too heavy.
Rashad was one of the first MMA fighters I ever knew of and he has always been one of my top favourites since. I first saw Jones lose (lol @ BS) against Hamill and became an instant fan, he has been one of my favourites since.
I always thought it was so cool and loved the fact two of my favourite fighters were brothers in combat, warriors bound by blood, sweat and tears. It was a big blow to me as a fan and even a person when they fell out, just shows no matter what you are bound by it can be broken.
Whoever wins, congratulations. I just hope they regain some of the respect for each other the used to chare
not agree with GSP because ibn the Lyoto fight Lyoto was better than jones in the 1st round , then got choked out :(
That's true M1 but GSP is applying what he said to this fight specifically
i think one of them will win in rounds 1 2 3 4 or 5 lowkickdoger
It will probably be Alexander Gustafsson or Dan henderson, if Alex beats a top 5 fighter in his next fight like machida, he will shot to a title fight. He is another young fighter with major skills. Think that will be a good fight but maybe in a fight or two. But i expect henderson will fight first as he wont fight until its a title fight. I cant see him beating jones as he is a little scrappy now and slower, still dangerous but too slow.
why does everyone say he needs to move up?! AS has dominated his division for year....what should he move up to 205??? Get over it everyone...stop hating on the kid there is finally someone that can hold a belt at 205 and now everybody's pissed??? Very Hypocritical IMO. I wish the best of luck to Jones and hope he does great...I've looked at Evans past fights as he was up and coming and he was the most arrogant selfish flashy fake person with is egotistical persona...wearing flashy suits and big sunglasses...FAKE...now the divison has a champ that is a good guy and ya hes a little ****y but what would you do if you KO'n and finishing the best fighters in the world??? I'm sure there is a high involved..... He just need to remember where he came from keep the fire in his eyes and remain humble and the sky is the limit for his potential.
Well, Gaul, it's definitely not going to be Rashad Evans this weekend. Jon Jones Via Sub - round 4.
yer pal not many!
after this fight i can only think of two fights which are Hendo and think Rua deserves a rematch but thats it i think. unless Evans makes it a close fight and they have a rematch. so thats three maximum. Gustafson is not quite there yet.
Well yes a while ago AS should have moved up when the division was empty but he has a ton of top level competition now (Sonnen, Belfort, Bisping, Weidman) so there is no need for him to move up now.
If Jones beats Evans, Hendo and even Gustaffson... is there really anyone even worth mentioning? Maybe Phil Davis but Rashad completely dominated him and if Davis fights Jones anytime in the next couple of years I expect Bones to handle Davis easier than he handled Bader. Davis has potential but he needs a few years to grow in to it IMO.
I actually think Bader has a certain amount of potential. More than David IMO. If he can sharpen up his striking a little more his power will overcome a lot. Lets not forget he only has two losses. One to Bones already, and a flukish loss to Ortiz.
well actually... yes AS should move up.
JJ is a sound guy. ppl just think he should move up because he is taller and has a longer reach than most HWs. plus it would be awesome to see!
Rashad is a very good fighter but has a suspect chin and is getting old for a fighter who relies so much on hand speed.
Because of his accomplishments (youngest champ ever, first fighter to beat three champs/former champs in the same year, etc) Jones has to already be considered a great fighter.
The question is, how great will he be? In the last few years, the only person who landed a clean power shot was Machida. He's never been taken down!
I think Jones is going to rewrite the record book. If Rashad was a southpaw, I might give him a punchers chance but I don't think he even has that.
If Bones wins in dominant fashion, that will be the fourth former champ he's beaten in just over a year. With Silva and GSP in the middle long injury lay-offs, that would make him #1 on my p4p list.
I agree.
IMO it's not whether Jones will win these next few fights, it's how high can his greatness reach.
I said it the night he beat Shogun, by the time he retires he will be recognised as the best fight of all time.
Im finding it hard to write off either fighter. As everyone knows, Jones has beaten some of the best ufc light heavyweights to have ever fought in the UFC like Showgun, jackson, Machida. Jones is by far one of the most talented fighters to watch and with wins coming from submission and TKO, he could win this fight in any area.
But on the other hand Evans has an amazing record and he didnt get that through easy opponents, he has beaten some very good fighters like liddell, bisping, jackson, griffin, tito. Has fought in both heavyweight and light heavyweight and he is still the smaller fighter. He is definatley someone who can push Jones back and keep him guessing and possible cause an upset victory.
I honestly think this is too close to call. I cant wait!!
I love Rashad but to be fair his last two opponents wouldn't last in the shadow of Jones' last two opponents.
its funny to see all these mma fans ride Jon's Bone.. I can't wait to watch Rashad put it on him.. Rashad is a different breed and its pretty disrespectful how he's so underrated. He's gonna put Jones to sleep just wait and see..
Its disrespectful to completely right Jones off as well. He has earnt the respect of MMA fighting fans because he has shown he can fight top fighters and adapt and get the win. As you read my post above ive said either fighter could win this fight. Im not saying Jones is unbeatable and I think Evans will put up a huge fight. Anything could happen in this fight. Its hard to even pick a winner!
MMA fighting fans?
the website?
Evans vs Bonner-split decision(Evans won)
Jones vs Bonner-U D(Jones won)
Evans vs Rampage-S D(Evans won)
Jones vs Rampage-SUB(Jones won)
Evans vs Machida-KTFO(Machida won)
Jones vs Machida-SUB(Jones won)
Evans vs Thiago Silva-S D(Evans)
Machida vs Thiago Silva-KTFO(Machida won)
Evans vs Sam Hoger-S D(evans)
Machida vs Sam Hoger-U D(machida)
Evans vs Tito-S D and Draw
Machida vs Tito- U D
you see how these are playing out? Evan squeaked by these fighters where Machida and Jones absolutely destroyed them. This was years ago for Evans...face it he's in over his head there is a new guy in town and he’s got time on his side....
It's something interesting to look at but that's as far as it goes.
Time and time again, history proves MMA math doesn't add up.
It's all about style match ups, unless one fighter is simply on another level. It's safe to say after how convincingly Jones finished three former champions in a row, it's going to take an unfavorable style match up AND a little luck. I'm not sure what to make of this style matchup. Evans usually has more success against fighters who over commit to their strikes, something Jones doesn't do. Jon's content on the outside picking guys apart until they're broken down enough to finish. But as good as Jones striking is, he's no Anderson SIlva when it comes to being able to strike while moving backwards. Rashads only chance is to get in Jones face, fake TD's and keep him on his heels and guessing. I feel like Rashads only offence will come from TD's, a bit of top control and a bit of GNP. He will have to find away to limit Jones offence when they are on the feet, specifically with footwork and by keeping jones tentative, limiting time spent in Jones range.
With all that said, It's ultimately Jons fight to lose, and unless Rashad is in Jons head, he shouldn't have to many problems. At this point, I can't say I'd be surprised if Jon Jones took down anyone and elbowed the shit out of them for a TKO, or grabbed a neck with ease and put the squeeze on.
I'm still going with the upset. Suga by UD.
I agree 100% but its just a little fun fact to consider....Jones hasn't really had opposition....Everyone keeps saying that evans knows Jones' weakiness but in reality jones knows just as much so then imo it comes to skill and Jones last 4 fights has been a completly diffrent fighter in each fight....everyone was a more developed fighter I can't wait to see what hes gonna do in this fight but evans has pretty much stayed the same in his last fights and IMO hasnt looked really impressive beating up Tito??? Really? thats no feat...we'll see tomorrow what happens
True MMA math doesnt add up....but jon jones has never been in a single bad position in his entire carreer...he's only dominated once he realized he was the best...F@#$%&* dominated everyone...the greatest all around athlete in the division, the tallest of anyone that matters in that division, the best well rounded, and after the bader fight, i would argue the strongest. Jones is a hhhhuuuuggggeeee 205. Rashad is a much smaller 205. Ive already got my money on jones, and hopefully it goes how it should. Will the fight live up to the hype? I dont think it will come close....will jones...he ways has.jones doesnt squeek by opponents...he runs thru them.
so true!
I'm with Mr. Drahota. Jones TKO in 3.
I see Evans hanging in there for a couple of rounds and even impressing some while Jones figures things out......
Come the third round however it will be like a different fight and Jones will lower the boom.
Obviosly Rashad is an underdog and with that said everybody wants to see a miracle where Rashad wins.It totally reminds me the fight between GSP and Serra. GSP had all the adventages, but he got caught. Therefore, I wanna see how Rashad is gonna "Serra" Jones.
Rashad Evans said it best when he told Jones;
"Thats the reason you're gonna lose, because you think you know" !
The reality is noone knows what will happen on the night but one thing is for sure. If this goes to a close decision we are going to be back where we started with a rematch guessing who will win. I hope this fight is as exciting as the Henderson and Shogun 5 rounder.
This is the hardest fight to pick this year especially with Rashad holding a 17-1-1 record. I'm not placing any bets on this fights.
I really hate this talk about moving up if your a dominant champ, personally I really love seeing someone be dominant, that is how legends are made.
As for this fight I think it will ALL come down to distance, if Jones can dictate at what distance the fight takes place he wins if Rashad can dictate the distance he wins. Personally I am smelling an upset here, Rashad via 2nd round KO.
I don't honestly think the distance will matter too much. Jones is dynamite in the clinch and has excellent wrestling and judo takedowns. With Jones' reach advantage to grab Rashad, Evans is in danger of a takedown every second he's within punching range.
That said, I was surprised at how easily he got inside on Davis and took him down when there was an opportunity. The difference there being that Davis' striking kinda sucks, and Jon Jones makes crazy videogame-esque striking look viable for a normal person to perform in real life.
id rather a champ that finishes fights that people "dont like" ( bc hes so good) rather then a champ whos had the belt for 5 years and all his fights go the distance... ( do i really need to say who that is ? )
I think you do need to say who it is, because unless MMA doesn't exist before 2009, neither does the person your talking about.
Of course, GSP has had four straight decisions, but since before that, he stopped 3 out of 4 opponents you couldn't be talking about him.
JON FITCH?
Rashad has a lot of unimpressive wins and I wouldnt be surprised if hes just another won the belt, never defended it and never wins it again LHW champ to add to the list. Watching him hold guys on the ground until time runs out is the ufc at its most boring. (yes I know he has a couple KOs). I think he's a deserving underdog and this Rashad being the one guy thing is all just hype to sell a fight that will most likely be one sided.
Jones on the other hand is a highlight reel, ufc at its finest. Thats the champ I want. Entertainment is why I watch.
I think size is going to play a huge factor here - Evans could be a MW and Jones is as big as you could get as a LHW, along with the longest reach in UFC history.
Happened to look at a video for an old fight and it has Tim Sylvia's reach listed at 86". Was this a mistake, or was Jones' reach repeatedly being reported as the longest a misrepresentation?
Just checked WIkipedia and they have his reach listed at 80 inch
Jones-13 finishes...Jones last eight fights have all been finishes on top of that is was all top dogs in 205! That include Machida, Rampage, Shogun, Bader,Matyushenko, Vera, Hamill Thats sick!!!
Evans-8 finishes total he's KO'd a washed up chuck, tito, and Griffin... other than that all split decisions...
at first i thought Evans because he trained with Jones and heard that he beat him in training...but then found out it was like ONE time and it was only during grappling drills! Evans does have explosiveness especially in his takedowns but he has no submission victories! Jones is a finisher and i see Jones winning in round 4!
I think......ok maybe I dont think...but thats probably what you thought!
you what?
i think machida exposed how to strike aganst jones he just doesnt have much of a ground game was his undonig. if Rashad can strike like machida did and get jones to the ground and do some work also he could have a great chance of winnig this fight think about it
like jones doesnt see his mistakes with Machida and will adjust....look at his last 4 fights he is patching all his weakiness if he developes KO power ...watch out lol that will be nasty Reach and KO power plus sick ground game and submissions???!!! He'll be a machine!!!
Yes, because, you know, everyone would do a hell of a lot better in MMA if they could strike like Machida.
Lyoto is a southpaw with one of the most unorthodox styles in the MMA. So I guess if you could mix the Dragon's striking with Suga's wrestling, you have a fighter who might have a chance.
If...if...if...If my granny had wheels, she'd be a wagon.
You will have to excuse Daniel Cassidys prediction... it is 4 20 and he is stoned as hell
hahahah Aton pick is Jones via TKO in Round 1.LOL .I'll pick Jones via TKO in Round 3 at least give Rashad some credit would you
Machida era?
if you really wanna look at their fight history, and you say that tito and machida vs tito and rashad.... look how different rashad was now he switched his game up.. he's developped more. Machida couldnt finish tito... rashad knocked him out in the second round and basically raped him the whole fight... its a new rashad,,, not a ****y striker whos coming up against one of the most confusing stanced fighters in mma back before machida was noticed... his heads on right, hes doing the right things, he's beat everyone good in the divison... hes going to be the man to Dethrone JonJones