UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit LowKick.com Staff Predictions
Posted on February 3, 2012, 08:39 AM by Anton Gurevich
Interim UFC Welterweight title Title: Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit
Staff Picks: Nick Diaz - 4, Condit - 3
Community Top Pick: Diaz via KO/TKO in Round 4
Anton Gurevich: Nick Diaz is a phenomenal fighter, but unfortunately for the Cesar Gracie fighter, Carlos Condit is going to cut his streak. Condit is a tough-as-nails fighter, with exceptional striking skills and a solid ground game. I honestly think that the Natural Born Killer’s striking is superior to the one of Nick Diaz, he is way more sharper and stronger on his feet. Plus, Condit is more diverse as a fighter. Diaz has his style, but Carlos Condit is totally unpredictable and can finish his opponent from every given position. Diaz has a reasonable advantage on the ground, but I don’t think he will be able to showcase his incredible BJJ skills in this match-up. In the end, it’s all mental in this match-up for Carlos Condit. If he stays focused against Diaz, and doesn’t let the psychological warfare to sabotage his gameplan, we will have an Interim UFC Welterweight Champ from Albuquerque, New Mexico. My prediction is Condit via TKO in Round 2.
Joey Santosus: Carlos Condit feels that he's been all but written off on Saturday night, and I'd have to agree with him. But, I don't think it's so much that anyone questions the abilities of "The Natural Born Killer," but rather it's their desire to see GSP's reaction when Nick Diaz sticks his chin out and throws his hands in the air. After all, it's been quite some time since someone has managed to even make the Canadian appear uncomfortable inside the octagon. However, it should be noted that overlooking a fighter with 26 finishes in 27 victories is - well, absurd. With that said, I'll take Diaz to win a decision based on sheer volume, but with no degree of certainty. Nick Diaz via Decision.
Bryan Fontez: This is quite possibly the most difficult pick I've had to make since I can remember. There are soo many variables of which each fighter can win with. Diaz has pressure, solid boxing, aggressive Jiu-Jitsu and more cardio than the energizer bunny. But Condit is extremely well-rounded and has the power, killer instinct and dynamic striking skills to put you in a coma. I wanna say Condit wins it, I really do. But my prediction will have to be made the same way Diaz fights... As if I have a gun to my head. Nick Diaz via Unanimous Decision
Mike Drahota: This fight brings quite the potential for fireworks here. In many ways, this is what the fans are looking for in terms of two talented fighters who bring it every time out. With much at stake here, I see both Diaz and Condit having a great striking acumen, with a slight edge to going to Diaz. While both are well-versed in submission skills as well, Diaz again gets the nod due to experience. But this is a fight after all, and anything can happen. I think both combatants are at the top of their respective games right now, and I think that Carlos Condit is the hungrier of the two at this point in time. I expect to see an all-out war. Most are picking Diaz from what I’ve seen, but I’ve always thought it was only a matter of time for Carlos Condit. I like Condit to shock the world and score a second round (T)KO over Diaz.
Trent Reinsmith: The odds on this one started out as pretty much dead even, but over time the betting line has begun to favor Diaz and I can’t say that I disagree. There is no denying that Condit deserves a shot at the interim title in this fight, he can bring it just as well as Diaz can, but the difference is in the technique. With Diaz landing well over 100 strikes per fight (178 out of 350 thrown against BJ Penn), any fighter will have a rough time dealing with that volume of strikes. When you throw in the fact that Diaz has a gas tank that could probably go 10 rounds, well, I just feel he’ll be too much and will eventually weaken the resolve of Condit. Nick Diaz by fourth round submission
Evan Holober: I've spent the past two weeks trying to come up with a winner of this fight. Most of the picks around the web (and the money) have gone for Diaz, but I just can't decide. The name Greg Jackson always equals a smart game plan, and a smart plan of action against Nick Diaz is half the fight won (for a top tier welterweight). I see Condit using kicks all fight to wear down Diaz's vaunted boxing, and Diaz trying ineffectively to take the fight to the ground. I hope I'm wrong. No disrespect to Carlos, but Nick is someone I'll root for against anybody in the world not named BJ Penn or Robbie Lawler. CONDIT BY UD.
Daniel Cassidy: This is possibly the toughest fight I've had the pleasure to call for Lowkick. Coming of a steak of highlight reel finishes, both fighters enter the cage quite evenly matched. Diaz is a warrior who hasnt been stopped since KJ Noons drew blood in their first clash. Diaz would go on to prove a point in the rematch, outboxing the boxer. I think his stand up proves near impossible for any fighter deal with, and this will make the difference. I think Diaz endless gas tank will aid him in seeking a late Round 4 TKO victory.
Comments
I don't understand how you can bet against Diaz with the tough guys he's faced through out the last few years.
I feel the same way. This fight should be pretty easy for diaz
Because Condit is that good, that's why.
I only see Condit winning by an early KO/TKO or cuts. To win on points he's going to have to use a lot of kicks and mix in a lot of take down attempts, which will exhaust him. Add to that the fact he'll be moving backwards during the standup for the most part and this makes for a difficult fight. I wouldn't be surprised if Carlos surprised us all by matching Diaz's cardio, but I see Diaz ending the fight by submission.
@Anton what did Condit ever do to you?
Anton just made it a lot easier for me to pick Diaz to win this fight now. Poor Condit.
Condit is just about my favorite fighter, but my pro pick is Diaz RD.3 TKO
that was a joke right
I think it will be a very difficult win for Diaz. Condit will push him to the edge.
Yeah, cause Nick is so unfamiliar going to that edge... Is Condit though??
Dude....Diaz is gonna take Condit to the edge that his game man...his Cardio shuts fighters down...if Condit can weather the storm and fight through Nicks pace than he might have a shot or if he can use his power for a KO but if it goes to the ground don't count on it or if he tries to box with him....just saying
diaz will defo win this fight. this is the easiest pic iv had to make. yes it will be a tough fight but condit wont finish diaz standing or on the feet. diaz by ud or tko in the 4th.
not standing OR on the feet eh?
i dont understand? its the easiest pick youve made and also its going to be a tough fight?? im really confused...
already been pointed out by geeza below, but neither standing or on the feet? hmmmm, if your previous comment about diaz definitely winning this fight had any credibility (which it doesn't, not gonna be easy by any stretch of the imagination) then that shocker pretty much killed it for you kid
This should be a war, through and through.
I think the key is in how Carlos handles Nick's swarming style. If he keeps his composure, and counters effectively, he should do very well. Otherwise, it could be Nate vs Cerrone again.
i want to see greg jacksons game plan. i think it will probably be similar as how rory macdonald won against nate diaz. if condit fights that kind of fight instead of the cerrone-diaz kind of fight he has decent chances!! obviously i think nick is tougher than nate... no matter what it will be a great fight!
Condit in the second by referee stoppage due to cut. A premonition that I had.
Condit - TKO- 2, you heard it here..... Anton and Mike Drahota are spot on for this one.
i like evan holobers post... good arguments. what is funny about anton is how sure he always is about a fight. im going with him on this one but i think there is a huge chance that diaz ends submitting condit maybe on the 4th round
I think Nick is going to surprise everyone with his game plan. Sure he is a fighter and will bang with the best of them, however I do not think is a dumb fighter either, and Ceasar has developed gameplans for Shields, Melendez, Nick and Nate to be victorious and bring home belts.
Carlos has better than average power on his feet of late with impressive Ko's over Markham, Kim and Hardy in the UFC. I see a feeling out boxing round 1 followed by Nick attempting to take down and finish condit. Nick has better Ju jits su than Condit and will exploit that deficiency. The ultimate goal is GSP and not being sidelined for a long period of time from a war.
The last 5 fights Diaz has primarily been on the feet as he is VERY well rounded there, but I feel he will switch it up and go to his bread and butter to safely but soundly defeat Condit. This is for all the marbles and I believe Nick Diaz knows who he is as a fighter. He will not let his ego get the best of him and get into a sluggling match, unless he is having GREAT success in round 1.
Diaz by 2nd round submission and barely scathed in the process.
Agreed. Condit has been submitted enough times to see it going that way. I would say in round 3 or 4 when Nick starts to have a clear cardio advantage over just about anybody.
thats a good option... i dont see this fight on a decision. or condit KOs diaz or diaz submits him!
I tend to agree. But I could also see Condit going for takedowns. If I put myself in Greg Jacksons shoes I'd tell Condit these are his options.
1) Have faith in your conditioning, fight Diaz like every other striker, hurt him, possibly finish him, take him down if its there ect.
2) Diaz weakest area is wrestling and your top control is underrated and good, take this fight to thee ground, drop elbows try and open up a cut.
On the flip side of those, Condit may tire himself out and Diaz boxing and pressure could overwhelm him. Diaz has the BJJ advantage and he could be much improved since dropping UD's back in the day to strong wrestlers.
Just based on history I have to go with Diaz.
I think it's a good style match-up,and it's going to be a good war.
But i think it's going to be a blitzwar.All over in the first round.
I just can't see condit winning against one of the toughest dudes in MMA.
So Diaz by way of K.O. first round
Kida
"I just can't see condit winning against one of the toughest dudes in MMA." - maybe you should watch ellenberger vs condit again. these are both the toughest guys in mma, thats what makes this matchup so interesting.
I have Condit , 3rd round tko
Very even....small edge to Diaz just for being a bad mofo.
I think condit will come out similar to cyborg and throw alot of leg kicks cyborg did very well with that tactic before gassing id like to make a pick but there is too many ways this fight could go I love this fight
p.s if this ends in the first minute it will be the biggest anti climax ever
this is gonna be an amazing fight these two will put on a way better fight than GSP vs either two... I wanna see a brawl.... this will probably be one of the better fights of the year
Gotta wait and see! This is gonna be a nailbiter. I want Diaz to fight GSP soooo bad. Will Nick check leg kicks? He best be. Condit is a warrior. I got Nick winning by tko or sub in the 4th. Its gonna be back and forth. Nick can take a ton of damage...but this one is anybodys fight. Both these guys have a great chance of dethroning GSP. My moneys on Diaz though. Been a huge fan since he fought Lawler.
I personal think style makes the fight and Condit striking skills is solid with a perfect timing for the open will capitalized Diaz style keeps coming forward in R 1 or 2 by TKO ,just like the fight against Hardy .But if Condit can not finished pretty much Diaz will be a big factor with cardio and warrior spirit tough as nail will win by submission or UD .IMO
Both fighters have excellent chins and have shown mental toughness, which is close enough to be even. I give Condit an edge in striking, due to variety and power.
Diaz is an excellent striker and hits hard but gets the job done by combinations, as opposed to the one punch finish Carlos owns. And the NBK muay thai skills gives him an element with his feet and knees that Diaz can't match.
I give Diaz the edge in hand speed, endurance and ground game. Condit is in fantastic shape, but Nick will still push his cardio. Diaz strike rate is one of the highest in UFC history.
While Condit will be better at taking Diaz down, once he gets there, it won't go well. Carlos has very good GnP, but he'll be too busy defending against submissions to make it work.
These are two fantastic fighters at the age where their physical abilities are peak. It will be a war, even if it's a brief one.
I think the stand up could go either way, but if Diaz doesn't like the way it is going, he has option of taking it to the ground. If he's not winning the striking battle, taking Nick down won't make things better for Carlos.
Which is why I'm going with Diaz to win by submission.
Ok,ok,it's cool i know you surfers couldnt wait 4 my prediction.Here it is.Diaz is gonna teach Condit a lesson,TKO in the 4th.Then it's GSP's turn. He's gonna get GSP 2 stop wearin those tights after he kicks his behind.
i give diaz the edge, but condit is very dangerous and should be respected. he was a legit champion for the wec, and had good wins against good competition before the at rumble on the rock as well as other shows. he's shown he's not intimidated by the bright lights and tough fights in the ufc and thats a big battle for some people alone. i think if he can fight smart for five rounds he can win. if he tries to match punch for punch with diaz, he's in trouble. diaz will keep the pressure high while condit gets tired and frustrated. and even though condit is very good on the ground, diaz is very tricky there and is used to tapping out very good guys. whether in training or competition. very even match though. diaz in four.
Too close to call!!!
gonna be a war tho. can not wait. i see these two making some money from this fight with fon & ko/sub of night! awesome
I've thought about it hard for the last few days and I've gotta back Anton on this one. Condit!!
Awesome win for Conduit.
Diaz hardly touched him.