UFC 142: Jose Aldo vs. Chad Mendes by the Numbers
Posted on January 12, 2012, 09:48 PM by Trent Reinsmith
The main event at this weekend’s UFC 142 will feature a Featherweight title fight as its main event. Champion Jose Aldo will put his belt on the line in his homeland of Brazil as he faces the unbeaten Chad Mendes.
Let’s take a minute to look at the numbers surrounding the upcoming scrap.
Numbers provided by CompuStrike. Aldo’s CompuStrike numbers are based on 10 fight average, while Mendes’ numbers are based on a six fight average.
Aldo is the more active striker of the two, throwing an average of 102 strikes per fight compared to the 88 of Mendes. As far as landing their strikes, Mendes is the more precise, landing 58%, compared to Aldo’s 55%. Where there is a big difference is in power strikes as Aldo averages 40 per fight, while Mendes lands 27.
The two most talked about aspects of this fight have been Aldo’s leg kicks versus Mendes’ takedowns. Let’s see how the fighters compare there.
Aldo throws an average of 18 leg kicks per fight, landing 14, with 10 of those landed kicks being deemed power strikes. Mendes is active in the leg kick department as well, throwing 12 per fight and landing nine. The huge disparity is that, on average Mendes is only landing two power leg kicks. The clear advantage here goes to the speedy and powerful Aldo.
As far as takedowns go, over the course of the ten fights that CompuStrike looked at for Aldo he had attempted a mere 11 takedowns, landing eight of them. On the other hand, Mendes, an accomplished wrestler has attempted 38 takedowns in the six fights CompuStrike reviewed, sticking 28 of those attempts. To no one’s surprise, Mendes has the wrestling advantage.
With all this being said, this is a striker versus wrestler battle, with Aldo, the striker being an 11-5 favorite over Mendes, the wrestler.
The question at hand is will the speed of Aldo be enough to negate the takedowns of Mendes?
What do you think LowKick’ers; will it be the striker or the wrestler?
Further Reading: UFC 142 Media Package: Pre-Fight Interviews, Open Workouts, and more
Photo: Tracy Lee for CombatLifestyle.com
Comments
mma math...
MMA math is so unreliable at best i can put 47.8% that 93.5% of Hand strikes by both fighter will throw will be in the 18.4% effectiveness. While the leg strike of 60.4% on the Upper leg while 32.6% on the lower leg will be out match but the staggering 78.3% attempted or faint to the upper body will only be as accurate to 11.2%. While take down the ratio could be as high as 8 to 1 with the success rate of 10.6% on the first 3/7th of the round.
The only thing I see going against Aldo is a not well executed weight cut...other than that e predict Aldo by violation.
MMA math sucks...
These are fighters and anything can happen. You make an assessment by past performances. Aldo beat the crap out of Faber who is from the same pedegre as Mendez. Sorry but I dont see anything changing. Former soccer player Aldo Leg kicks will slow Mendez down. If Aldo is smart, he should destroy Mendez front leg. After that he will be wounded prey....