Shogun vs. Jones: The Fight we really wanted to see
Posted on March 8, 2011, 11:06 AM by codemaster(Credit to Scott Peterson of MMA Weekly for the excellent photograph)
When it was announced that Rashad Evans had injured himself and was unable to fight Shogun on March 19, the UFC brass scrambled for a replacement. Rampage was not in fighting trim, and was unlikely to make the weight cut with less than 6 weeks warning.
Jones the Only Choice
There were not many choices available in the top of the LHW rankings. Another fight with Machida was probably premature and not a fan favorite since Shogun and Machida have already fought twice recently. Opponents like Forrest Griffin or Thiago Silva did not make sense either, from a promotional angle or from a rankings point of view. Jones was the natural next choice after Rampage.
For the last couple of years, fans have speculated on how Jones would do against top 5 LHW competition. Many have been impatient for Jones to be allowed his chance to shine by giving him a top opponent. At last, it seems, fans are going to get what they wanted.
Shogun vs. Evans Not Compelling
Many fans did not view the upcoming bout between Rashad Evans and Mauricio Rua to be a compelling fight. Rashad was knocked out cold by Machida, but came back to win against Rampage and Thiago Silva via close decisions. It was the way Rashad won against these last two opponents as well as his decisive loss to Machida which had fans wondering how good the fight would be with Shogun.
Both the Rampage fight and the Silva fight followed a similar path. Rashad used his wrestling to take down his opponent, but once on the ground, he did little damage with ground and pound, and never threatened with submissions. While Rashad showed excellent top control, he could not take the next decisive step. In the 3rd round of both fights, Rashad was badly rocked, and barely survived to the end of the round. (both fights should have been 5 rounds) This did not inspire confidence in fans that Rashad could defeat Shogun, and if he did defeat Shogun, it would be through top control only--and not be a decisive win.
The Scripted Hollywood Moment
Even though it appeared Jones was hearing for the first time that he would fight Shogun when Joe Rogan told him after the fight with Bader, Dana White had asked Jones moments before whether he would take the fight and Jones accepted. In addition, Jones trains with Rashad, and knew of his injury, so it should not have been a total shock that he would be offered the fight. But this scripted moment will become a highlight reel for years to come, thanks to Dana White's clever marketing.
Does Jones Deserve to Fight Shogun?
Although Jones has not fought Machida, Rampage or Silva, he has definitely proven he is a worthy adversary for Shogun with the defeat of Ryan Bader. Jones uses wrestling more aggressively than Rashad by always threatening with ground and pound and submissions once he takes his opponent down. Ryan Bader is an top wrestler and Jones made him look like an amateur, seeming like a wolf attacking a lamb, rather than two wolves fighting for dominance.
All of this discussion is moot when you consider that the UFC had no other good choices.
1. Rampage was too fat, and not willing to take a title fight on such short notice.
2. A rematch with Machida is premature given two recent matches with Shogun.
3. Thiago Silva is under a cloud due to possible PED use following the Vera fight.
4. Forrest Griffin just fought for the first time in a year and really does not deserve a title opportunity.
5. Others like Couture or Noguera or Davis also are not close enough in rankings to deserve a title shot.
So in the final analysis, Jones was the only available and worthy opponent for Shogun, not to mention a fan favorite for this match.
Who Will Win This Fight?
This fight is very hard to predict because Jones will at last be fighting at the highest level, at which he has little experience. Shogun Rua as a wealth of experience at this level of competition and much success.
Jones
Jon Jones has the advantage of height and reach. With an 84 and a half inch reach, he as the longest reach ever in the UFC. The problem is that he does not fully capitalize on his reach by developing and using his jab to good effect. Jones also has reach with his legs, but has not fully utilized his kicking reach effectively, as someone like Anderson Silva has. But anyone who fights Jones has the burden of getting inside his reach to deliver blows--at which time Jones can take the fight to the ground in a flash.
Jones has some unorthodox striking, including devastating spinning elbows, which make him always dangerous and unpredictable. Jones is young, strong and in top physical condition--able to go 5 rounds with a full gas tank. The only question mark with Jones is his mental toughness. Since Jones is undefeated, (he won the Hamil fight) he has not faced someone who gave back as good as he got. How Jones reacts to a tough fight with Shogun and possibly getting hit harder than he ever has in his life will be the question in many fan's minds.
Shogun
Shogun Rua is a living legend in MMA. Shogun can knock you out or submit you, and he is much more likely to do either than to go to a decision. Shogun has been tested against a who's who of MMA, unlike Jones, and come out on top in most fights. Shogun is a black belt in BJJ and a phenomenal Muay Thai specialist who can deliver crippling kicks and knees as well as rapid fire combinations with his hands. When one looks at Shogun's resume, it is a wonder that Jones was a favorite to beat him after the bout was first announced.
Shogun has a couple of question marks on his recent resume including a loss to Forrest Griffin and a lackluster performance against an aging Mark Coleman. Most of these question can be answered by Shogun's health and ring rust. In Pride fighting, soccer kicks and foot stomps were legal--and Shogun used them effectively. In the UFC, the rules take away a few weapons in Shogun's arsenal, and he must adjust to this. In his battles with Machida, he seemed like the Shogun of old, and that he had made all of the necessary adjustments.
The Keys to Winning
If Shogun wants to defeat Jones, he will have to stuff his takedowns. While Shogun is capable of threatening submissions from guard, it is not a smart move to allow Jones' elbows to be on top, and Jones has been training with elite wrestlers and will be hard to submit from guard. The hard part for Shogun is to achieve a balance between defending takedowns and letting his hands and feet go. When takedowns are threatened, it makes the striking game more cautious, since striking can open up takedown opportunities for your opponent. Shogun must be ultra-aggressive to get inside Jones' reach to strike effectively, and cut off Jones's retreat. Shogun must practice his escapes--since Jones will win if he is on his back for the entire round. In addition, Shogun must have a full 5 round gas tank, since if the fight goes over 3 rounds, he will be vulnerable to Jones' youth and conditioning.
The keys to winning for Jones are pretty much the reverse of Shogun's. Jones needs to use his reach and stay on the outside of Shogun's devastating kicks and punches. He needs to set up his takedowns with strikes, and then do his ground and pound (avoiding 12-6 elbows) or submission attempts. He needs to keep Shogun down, once he has taken him down. When needed, he should clinch with Shogun against the cage and tire him out--as Shogun will have a hard time with the Muay Thai plum and knees against such a tall opponent. Jones should use his unorthodox striking when appropriate, since this style got him where he is now.
I honestly cannot pick a winner for this fight, but I can tell you that I am looking forward to this contest with heightened anticipation. This fight has the possibility of being an all-time classic--whoever wins or loses. By accident or fate, it will be the fight we really wanted to see.
Comments
my head tells me shogun should but i just cant get over how easy jones has made his tear through the div against some solid guys. people talk about how jones hasnt fought enough top guys to warrant a title shot but who did shogun fight to earn his a 45 year old mark colemen and a chinless chuck liddell(no disrespect chuck your great but its true) gonna be a awesome fight 51-49 jones my call
I agree, and I feel the same about this fight. I like and respect both fighters--but how things will turn out in the actual fight mystifies me--I can see it going either way.
Of the two fighters, Shogun is more likely to end it with one punch than Jones. But Jones is more likely to end it via ground and pound than Shogun--in my estimation.
Uncertainty makes for a good build-up to a fight.
Who ever wins, i want the fans just to except it, and not make any excuses.
That's a pretty good analysis dude, a way better fight break down than most 'professional' MMA journalists manage to do. One point where I would disagree however is on the issue of Jones' conditioning; the last time he went the distance (against Bonnar) he clearly gassed, plus he's never been into the championship rounds. This is definitely an advantage for Shogun.
I was thinking the same thing, he was working but gassed noticeably... I would guess that since that time working with Greg Jackson's camp and the top athletes of the sport his cardio has gotten better I think he could go 5 rounds now.
Thanks, and you may be right about the conditioning.
I remember how he was against Bonnar, but that was a while ago, and Bonnar is a lot tougher than people give him credit for on the ground and in clinches--which is exhausting. Wrestling and clinching is much more exhausting than standup alone--and both Bonnar and Jones were tired.
You could say the same about Shogun for earlier fights too--but he fixed that for the Machida fights--but there was not much ground game in those fights, and grappling contests are the true test of conditioning.
I suppose I also count two factors for my opinion that Jones will have a full gas tank for 5 rounds: Youth and Greg Jackson's camp. I know Greg Jackson's camp covers conditioning very well, and Jones should have been the beneficiary of this since the Bonnar fight.
I would like to point out though that while Jones is absolutely dangerous from the top position with those elbows, it is also a disadvantage - and experienced fighters like Rua can use Jones' own size against him (considering his BJJ background).
The only way I see Jones winning this fight is from the gound. I do not see Jones finishing Shogun off with ground and pound (primarily because Rua has a granite chin and a great guard with sweeps) but via submission perhaps.
...And only if Jones gets lucky with Mauricio's gas tank.
Are you serious? Get's lucky with gas tank? Really? To me, most times a fighter gasses, it's because they're getting dominated. Not because the opposite opponent is lucky.
I agree with how Jones finishes, but i disagree with Shogun not being able to be finished, he may have and Iron chin but there are many other bones in the face the can break from Jones elbows
Thanks @doomsdayapex
Jon Jones not only has long arms, he has long elbows. If you listened to Brandon Vera tell the story of when Jon Jones broke his face--literally--and then you remember Hamil...or Bonnar...or O'Brian--or Matsyushenko...you would notice a trend---Jon Jones has mean elbows. Well proven elbows.
If I were Shogun, I would rather avoid Jones being on top with elbows if I could, and only think of submissions from guard if I had no choice in the matter.
With as badass a Muay Thai practicioner as Rua is, I have to think he is all too aware of how dangerous Jon Jones' elbows are. He won't be caught by surprise.
Great article
A balanced and good article. I have to say though, i believe the hype around Jones. He has got to this point in the UFC with apparent ease.
He does have flaws and is not the finished article by any standard, but his game at this point in his career is was too much for everyone he has faced so far.
Rua can be devastatingly good and is pretty consistent with it. I think he will have to be at his very best to have any chance againt Jones whereas jones has still to reach his potential and may still walk through Rua.
I can't believe I am dismissing Rua so readily. I have seen most of his fights, and this article correctly surmised the adjustments he had made to his game since Pride with the new rules. He is a very, very good fighter and a win over Jones will surprise no one, me included, but I find it hard to see how he can handle Jones' style as no one has come close to handling it yet.
Thanks azzkika.
I can see the fight going either way depending upon a lot of different factors.
I can see Shogun stunning Jones with a strike, then finishing him off with strikes on the ground.
I can see Jones taking Shogun down, then delivering rapid fire LONG ELBOWS to Shoguns face for a stoppage.
This is one of the reasons I am so pumped for this fight--I really don't know how it will go, and I will be unsurprised if either one wins.
I will be surprised if it goes to a decsion though.
most hyped up fights go to decision anyway. its like american football, when you have two high powered offenses and it ends up being a low scoring game.
Definitely one of the best fight breakdowns I've read so far while being apart of lowkick. This fight is one of the toughest fights to call but I think Jones can handle Rua. I don't see this fight reaching the final rounds though. Win or lose this fight is great for Jones. He'll learn a lot from it and could even leave with the belt. I'm extremely excited to see what the outcome will be.
Great write up and I agree with everything except for the question of stamina, what do we know about Jones gas tank? Only fight I remember that went very long was against Bonner and Jones did slow down considerably during the fight. Granted that was a long time ago but if anything Jones has gotten bigger since then and his weight cuts must be getting harder and harder. In all honesty if this goes into round 4-5 I give an increasing edge to Shogun.
Also I think Jones fame might have actually gotten to him a little bit and I wonder if he even takes Shogun seriously. If this fight ends in the first round I believe it will be Shogun knocking Jones out and Jones needs to win this in rounds 2 and 3.
I actually don't see jones finishing shogun with ground and pound, i mean when was the time you actually saw that happen to shogun? He has a legendary chin. And whoever said that jones had better conditioning than shogun? Watch the Stephan Bonnar fight and you could clearly see how he was slowing down during the 3rd round while Shogun had a 5 round fight against Machida and did not slow down one bit. He may have had lackluster performances against Coleman or Griffin but I think the Machida 5 rounder answered all the questions about his conditioning. Stop giving Jones this sort of aura of invincibility just because he's devastated most of his recent opponents as this is a whole new other level he is dealing with in Shogun. Shogun would have destroyed the fighters Jones destroyed too. I go for Shogun by KO/TKO. I just don't know which round though.
And more:
Shogun had bad conditioning coming into the Griffin and Coleman fights because of an injury, he was not able to train properly. But after the Machida 5 rounder, a well conditioned Shogun showed up, he did not slow down up to the championship rounds. While Jones has some question marks around his cardio, watch the Bonnar fight and you will see in the 3rd round that he slowed down, and this can be expected for such big guys who cut so much weight like that to make 205. I don't see Shogun getting ground and pounded because he has a legendary chin and it has never ever happened. Remember Shogun is a BJJ Black Belt and is superior in technique than Jones when it comes to jiu-jitsu, I don't know what Jones' ranking in BJJ is but I doubt he's a black belt so I don't see a submission for Jones either. I don't know how you people get so amazed and look at him with the sort of aura of invicibility you think he has just because of the way he's defeated his previous opponents. Shogun is leaps and bounds better than Vera or Bader. Shogun has better stand up and jiu-jitsu than both of them (he doesn't have the wrestling skills of Bader though) and has more experience and is used to performing on the spotlight. This will be a very very hard fight for Jones to win.
Enjoyed reading that. Can't disagree with you anywhere to be honest. You make very valid points from both sides. It's so refreshing to read a totally un-bias article.
This fight is going to be amazing. Either Jones will bottle it & make a mistake or Shogun is going to be too cautious. I expect Shogun to respect Jones but come at him like a Lion.
I believe Jones is the future of this division & I can see him stepping up to HW in a few years after clearing the LHW division out. Is it too early? May be, but I hope not!
This is a dream fight for true MMA fans but I would love to see Jones fight Anderson Silva more than anyone else right now. IMAGINE!
It was a great article. But I think rua has to assume he will be taken down. His takedown defense isnt great. I can guarantee he has a wrestler taking him down constantly in his camp. The key to me is the transition to the ground. If he works over and over on how he is positioned as he is taken down he has a good chance of either submitting or sweeping takedowns.
The plum comment isn't really true. In fact a taller opponent is more bent over if you get him in the plum. No matter how strong bones is his neck is not stronger than rua's two arms. They key for shogun is getting the first knee in before jones can rise up or step back. If he can do that the taller guy is actually at a disadvantage because his neck and back will be bent down towards shoguns knees vs more face to face in a man of the same height.
The key to me here is timing, and effective use of reflexes for jones. If he can use timing and reflexes to his advantage he can use his lesser technical striking to an advantage.
Thanks movescamp.
We will have to agree to disagree about the plum on taller opponents.
The key words are "if you get him in the plum".
I have found getting the plum on tall strong guys is harder.
You have a different experience?
When two opponents are clinching against the cage, getting the Muay Thai plum is harder
No I hear you. It can be true. But shogun has amazing muay Thai technique. I do have different expierances with tall guys. But then again I don't fight people cutting tons of weight and then bulking back up. But yes getting the plum is the question. Truly we will haveto wait and see. I can't believe all these people knowing who will win. I think there is a compelling argument for both sides. Judging on machida did to top guys then what shogun did to machida I don't know how shogun is the underdog. Compare machida bonar vs bonar jones. I know they are different fighters but pretty big difference.