Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir Head to Head: Who will win at UFC 146?
Posted on May 23, 2012, 04:55 PM by Evan HoloberJunior Dos Santos and Frank Mir will take to the cage to decide the UFC heavyweight championship Saturday night at the MGM Grand Garden arena. How they got to this position though, is a bit of a head scratcher.
Both were supposed to be fighting on Saturday already, just against different opponents. Junior was slated to take on Alistair Overeem before the challenger was ruled ineligible from a failed random urine screen. Mir was set to tangle with former champion Cain Velasquez, and instead got the late call to fight for the title.
It’s a classic matchup between striker and grappler with each obviously holding skill in other areas. Let’s see how both stack up in each area:
Striking 70-30 Junior Dos Santos
You might ask how there is such a big discrepancy here when Mir has held his own on the feet with good boxers and kick boxers before. It’s simple; Dos Santos is the best striker right now in the heavyweight division and one of the best in the world at any weight. His combinations flow like an elite boxer. When he counters they come with speed, and deadly accuracy. If he connects flush the fight is either over, or resumes with an opponent that simply doesn’t fight back. When somebody is lucky enough to land on him (think Roy Nelson and Shane Carwin), he just shakes it off and drives on. Mir, on the other hand, has trouble with people that put pressure on him. Carwin knocked him out early two years ago. Big Nog was teeing off on Frank until he pulled off a Kimura out of nowhere after weathering the storm. The bottom line is Frank needs to hope for a big shot to land, and if not try to take the fight to the floor.
Wrestling 50-50 even
The problem for Frank is getting the fight to the floor will not be easy. He had a tough time taking down Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic last year and had trouble with the takedowns of Brock Lesnar and Carwin when he took on both earlier in his career. Junior has never had that trouble. The only person that was successful in taking him down was Gabriel Gonzaga, and that fight didn’t stay down for too long. Junior was able to stop both Nelson and Shane from taking him to the ground, but did so to fighters already beat up from taking punishment on the feat. That is why I can’t give him an advantage, but also won’t Mir one either.
Grappling 65-35 Frank Mir
Frank’s best chances in this contest will undoubtedly come once the fight hits the mat. His submission skills have been known to the world since he broke the arm of Roberto Traven (former ADCC absolute champion) when he was still a purple belt. He’s somewhat of a virtuoso while rolling, in that if he catches something, his opponent is done. Dos Santos regularly trains with the Nogueira brothers, and other high level jiu-jitsu practitioners in his native Brazil. However, trying out his grappling on Mir when he’s basically avoided the position for his entire UFC career is not a smart proposition.
Cardio 60-40 Dos Santos
Gas tank problems have plagued Mir’s career from day one. He used to openly admit that he was not scared of what his opponent could do to him in the cage, but if he would have enough energy to end the fight in a timely fashion before he got too tired. Ever since his comeback from the motorcycle accident his pace has been better though. Fights with Roy and Mirko showed that he can fight hard in to the third round, but those matches were fought in a slower manner than Junior usually competes at. Dos Santos himself has looked sluggish in the third round also a few times. What’s good for him though is his opponents were too roughed up from his earlier onslaught to take advantage. His pace throughout is what gives him the advantage here.
Going by these numbers, Junior is the rightful favorite. The good news for Frank is titles aren’t won on paper.
Comments
50-50 wrestling???? Hahahahaha
Who's better?
JDS take down defense has shown to be top notch. Mir is a Jiujitsu artist not a top level wrestler. I would give a slight edge to Junior on it.
I would lean the same way Drew. Problem is the takedown defense to me hasn't ever been shown against anybody top notch. Carwin is a great HW wrestler, but when Junior outwrestled him shane was already a beaten mess just looking to hold on. If he decides to take Mir to the floor I think he'll be able too. I can't say the same for Mir.
Good point. It looked like Carwin went into that fight believing he could KO JDS and only looked for takedowns when it became obvious that it wasn't going to happen.
@Evan- By the same token, Mir successfully resisted the takedown from a fresh Carwin, who had to settle for beating him up against the cage (an admittedly successful tactic). On top of that, JDS has never implemented a wrestling-based offensive strategy, and the last time Mir did, he tossed around Nelson like a rag doll the entire fight. So JDS' biggest wrestling challenge has been surpassed by Mir, and JDS has never successfully outwrestled anyone offensively, whereas Mir has. 50-50 how?
Dos Santos wont have that early stoppage love like he got from the Cain fight, or a depleted non-steriod using fighter like he had with Carwin. Mir is goin to beat June's ass.
Like Chuck D & Flave say,"DONT BELIEVE THE HYPE"
C'mon don't start that WEAK'N shit, I'm only telling the truth. I will be looking for some," You Were Right Hate" when 146 is over.
I have JDS via TKO - Round 1
Lets analyse what you just said Hate: "JDS is hype" - this guy destroyed Werdum, Struve, CC, Yvel, Gonzaga, Nelson, Carwin, Cain without taking any damage - this has to be the most difficult road to a title ever...so Hype??? you mad dog?
Who did Yvel beat in the UFC in the last 3 years? Napo turned out to be nothing, Nelson was a fat punching bag back then damn near fresh off TUFF. Carwin was 30 pounds lighter, steroid free & coming back from neck surgery. Cain was way too rusty & the ref didnt give a chance to recover. The fight was stopped way too early. Now ANALYZE that since you want to ANALYZE something Brazil.
"Napo turned out to be nothing, Nelson was a fat punching bag back then damn near fresh off TUFF."
-Napao was former title challenger that destroyed Cro Cop as a top tier opponent. Plus a terrific grappler for a HW. Nelson has only been beaten by top tier competition over the last few years (Mir, JDS, Werdum). The only person outside of the top ten that's defeated him since 2008 is Jeff Monson, and that was one of the worst decisions of the year.
"Carwin was 30 pounds lighter, steroid free & coming back from neck surgery."
-He never failed a test. The only eveidence there is that he ever took steroids was evidence submitted to the state by a guy who was indicted on 100's of charges in the first place (nothing came from it). Plus that "evidence" was from a year or two before he even entered the UFC. The neck surgery is a valid point though.
"Cain was way too rusty & the ref didnt give a chance to recover."
-Rusty, yes. No chance to recover, no way. The ref stopped the fight correctly as Cain was out, and would have taken undefended punishment by maybe the hardest puncher in the HW division.
Carwin was big as a house, knocking everybody out, then when it came to the JDS fight dude was lightweight sucked up with no power. I'm going to stand my ground on the Cain fight due to the UFC wanting to make the statement to mma doubters that the sport is not so violent while airing it nationally. It was like they said whoever bleeds or hit the ground first lose. I lost money on the Napo fight so I'm a Lil bias there.
Hell I'm wrong y'all right holla after the fight!
"I'm going to stand my ground on the Cain fight due to the UFC wanting to make the statement to mma doubters that the sport is not so violent while airing it nationally."
-I don't care if you're standing your ground, it's an illogical point. The UFC had everything to gain off of Cain winning the fight. He was "work hard, Mexican background, college kid" that spoke english. He was a doorway into many demographics that still don't watch MMA for boxing. Dana barely even gave credit to Junior in the after math of the fight, and just citicized Cain's game plan.
"I lost money on the Napo fight so I'm a Lil bias there."
Understandable. I hate Dan Henderson for this very reason.
Carwin was only about 10 lbs less than when he fought Brock. He was actually bigger than when he fought Gonzaga. The neck injury could have hampered him though.
Do you prefer seeds or crackers you f#ck'n repeating ass parrot.
Do you prefer stupid or unintelligent? Or is "unintelligent" to big of a word for you?
I'm not the one who repeated anything.
Do Polly want deez nuts?
My bad homie that was tacky, imma get back to watching this Miami -Pacers game. PEACE OUT
Hahaha do your thing bro.
If JDS is aggressive right from the bell, I think that he gets the KO/TKO. If he has a slow start, that's gonna give Mir time to feel him out and impose his game. Either way I feel that JDS determines the result based upon his plan of attack, whatever it may be
Wow I would give Mir a far better grappling advantage, probbaly at least 75
We will see.
If I gave Mir a 75-25 advantage in grappling, I'd have to at least give Junior 90-10 in striking.
Wow definitely not. I wish there was a chin category too because I would then give JDS 80 - 20 in chin but pure striking skills I would give 60 - 40 for Mir, he has great striking (not as good as Santos) but his real problem is his chin can't back him up.
Good point Keith. JDS is a much better boxer, but when you factor in that Frank is probably a more diverse striker with more kicks and nasty knees, it's closer than people think. JDS definitely does have a good chin, because Carwin hit him hard more than once in their fight, and it didn't seem to faze him.
How you an type that with a straight face after he was picked apart by Nog astounds me. But to each his own.
Mir's striking is average at best for a HW. He's outstruck a severly ill Nogueira, dropped Kongo early, and KO'd Cro Cop after what was maybe the worst fight of the year up until that point.
In no way are Frank Mir's striking skill great.
My bad I meant to say 60-40 for JDS, when chin is taken out of the equation, but yes mousasi Mir does have much more diverse striking but I think JDS's advatange in boxing gives him an edge over Mir's full striking game.
I think Mir has better striking than Nog but again was let down by his terrible chin. I don't think dropping Kongo, beautifully KOing Cro Cop or KOing Nog (ill or not) is average.
Mir wasn't picked apart. He was tagged cleanly twice in the chin and went down, the same as can happen to pretty much any heavyweight. Nog had three surgeries between his back and a double hip replacement, and any boxer will tell you how much problems with those areas will mess up your punching power. His only two opponents since (Schaub and Mir) have both gotten caught cleanly by just a couple of shots and went down. Is it so hard to believe that Nog might just be hitting harder than he used to?
Correction, JDS cannot yet be said to be the best striker in the HW division. On paper Alistair Overeem is the best. We won't know for sure who is better until they fight.
Alistair overeem has outstruck _________ in MMA? Kharitonov (striker); nope he won the first fight on the ground then got dominated when they rematched. Werdum (grappler); kind of but more or less chased a guy who flopped on his butt the whole fight. Lesnar (wrestler); yes, he outstruck a guy who quit after a couple body kicks.
Junior has outsrtuck Gilbert Yvel (striker), Carwin (striker/wrestler), Cain (striker/wrestler), Struve (grappler), Gonzaga (grappler), and Werdum among others.
Their exploits placed side by side with one another aren't even close in MMA. And this is MMA. Not kickboxing. Alistair's exploits in K-1 (all very good no matter who he fought and didn't fight in the tourney's), don't factor into this equation.
Then there's that whole failing for testosterone level ratios above 10:1 thing....
Alistair outstriking Badr Hari, Tyrone Spong, Gokhan Saki and Peter Aerts speaks for itself. I know this is MMA but in this match up he will not really need to think about the TD as JDS will most likely not go for much if any, therefore his K-1 achievements are relevant.
No offense Evan but BLAHBLAHBLAHBLAHBLAHBLAHBLAHBLAHBLAH!
up to this day, seeing Big Nog vs Mir 2 still gives me goose bumps
It was interesting that jnr has tried to get into franks head by claiming Frank is not a real man when facing tough positions. I was surprised that jnr came out and said this.
I hope Mir can take this fight with a submission victory. I thought jnr would have been more respectful of Mir's achievements as a former ufc champion.
I guess nogueiras broken arm is bothering him alot. One thing for sure is that jnr always enters the octagon looking dangerous and ready for the knockout.
With two punches Mir will go to sleep like always all his 5 losses KO or TKO just will ad up.Mir culdn't stand with Carwin and Lesnar this guy will kill him
Lmao! In the second Lesnar fight and the fight with Carwin, neither had any intention of attempting to stand with Mir. They just wanted to smother him and pound him out. Who was the last person to legitimately beat him on his feet, without outwrestling him? Brandon Vera back in 2006?
Mir dosent deserve this fight Lesnar is a better fighter than Mir.Anything can hapen in a fight if Mir wins i bett Lesnar will come back don't forget this
what a delusional fellow..
Anything can happen