Heavyweight Madness: Frank Mir could be the favorite against Cain Velasquez
Posted on March 13, 2012, 11:44 AM by Daniel CassidyJust a few days ago, UFC President Dana White announced an upcoming number one contender fight for the promotions Heavyweight title. Once the dust has settled between Alistair Overeem and Champion Junior Dos Santos, Cain Velasquez will face Frank Mir, to face the winner of the fight between JDS and The Reem. The two HW clashes will take place on the same card, on May 26th at UFC 146, in Vegas's MGM Grand Gardens.
With the announcement came the bookmakers odds, and Velasquez entered the heavy favorite, surprisingly some odds are given as high as 5-1 against the underdog Mir.
Despite both men being former champions, Velasquez emerged the clear favorite. Many see this as an easy fight for NCAA Champ, despite Mir's credentials, some have written him off completely. Surely I can't be the only one who thinks Mir will regain his old strap?
Mir first came to prominence when he signed for the UFC when he signed it 2001 despite his relatively green 2-0 record. His first two fights saw him showcase his now legendary submission skills, tapping out his first two opponents Roberto Traven and Pete Williams un under 80 seconds each. Following this Mir would suffer his first professional loss, a TKO to Brit Ian Freeman while holding out too long for a submission.
Rebounding from the loss, Mir would go on a 3-0 tear to earn his first shot at the title. At UFC 48, Mir took just 50 seconds to snap the forearm of Champion Tim Sylvia. Tragedy struck however just a few months later when Mir was brutally injured in a motorcycle accident. While many predicted he would never walk again let alone fight, Mir rejoined the UFC and suffered his second and third loss of his career in the following three fights.
Many had written him at this point, however Mir's original form returned when he defeated Antoni Hardonk via Kimura. The fight gave him the opportunity to welcome long time rival Brock Lesnar to the UFC next. Winning the fight via kneebar, he would go on to face and once again cause upset, by defeating Pride legend Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira to capture the Interim Heavyweight title. He would face nemesis Brock Lesnar at UFC 100, despite a strong start, Lesnar's size proved too much and he lost via TKO.
At UFC 107, Mir re-established himself on the HW map with a first round submission over Cheick Kongo. and would once again fight for the Interim title, against Shane Carwin. Mir allowed himself to be bullied around the cage, before losing a first round TKO. Currently now Mir holds an overall record of 16-5 and is on a three fight win streak. He rebounded from the Carwin loss with a win over Mirko Cro Cop, then another over Roy Nelson, and most recently a rematch against Big Nog. Mir was the only man to both submit and TKO Big Nog, and was first in doing so on both counts. He also holds two stoppage wins over opponents Heavyweight legend Fedor Emilianenko could not stop in Big Nog and Cro Cop. He is currently the UFC's longest serving Heavyweight.
Despite all this and more, many have written of Mir's chances already. The Former Champ really isn't getting the respect he deserves, but many believe, myself included, that he can and will defeat Velasquez. The BJJ black belt is arguably the division’s top submissions artist. Most recently he snapped fellow BJJ star Big Nog's wrist in half at UFC 140. He may lack the wrestling pedigree of his opponent, but Mir has too many places to win the fight to be written off. In previous bouts too he has displayed his stand up skills, punishing Roy Nelson on the feet, and using his boxing to drop Cheick Kongo prior to a submission finish.
It could be argued that Mir has a suspect chin, but looking back, only notoriously heavy handed Shane Carwin was able to Knock Mir out, his other losses were TKO's. With Mir having the size advantage, Velasquez could struggle on the feet due to being the smaller fighter. As far power punching goes, Velasquez has left some questions unanswered, most evident in his fight against Cheick Kongo, where he was dropped twice.
Entering the bout, Velsquez to me at least to me seems to be stuck between a rock and a hard place, in dealing with both Mir's heavy hands and submission skills. Despite his 9-1 record, Velasquez will look like a fish out of water if Mir is able to implement his game plan and get top position. Even if Velasquez is able to get takedowns, does he really want to go to the ground with Mir?
Sure, we have seen some fights where Mir has come in tired, sloppy or just lazy, but on a good night, Mir is a fantastic fighter, powerfully well rounded and a bad match up for any fighter. And if, on May 26th, the best Frank Mir enters the cage, I for one, would not want to stand in Cain Velasquez's shoes. Rest assured, this is one fight fan who is betting the house on Frank Mir.
Comments
I like Mir. He seems to be a nice guy and he speaks very well. He is very educated about martial arts. I hope he wins. But it will be very hard against a hungry Cain.
whoever wins ,I really hope that we will see a great technical MMA fight between those 2 :)
Well said, Mr. Cassidy. I have no idea why people have been writing Mir off for the last couple years. Mir has been a perennial top contender in my opinion. And 5:1 odds is crazy. Again, not because Mir deserves more respect, but because he is way better than that.
Nice Post and I agree with you it would be silly to count Mir off. That said, I think your being a bit biased towards Mir and Cain. Claiming that Mir has better stand up skills than Cain is a bit of a stretch really. Cain has very sharp boxing skills and he has proven KO power, heck he has 3 KO of the Night awards in the UFC (Mir has 0 btw with only 3 wins by KO/TKO overall in his record). Cain has better movement on his fight and its quicker, not to mention the fact Mir will have to pay attention to potential take downs, making that another advantage when striking for Cain. Does that mean Mir has 0 chances of KOing Cain? No, not really, but I would say that Cain can out stirke and control Mir, specially if he drags the fight longer and tires Mir out. Mir has the credentials to win mind you, someone with his size and brilliant BJJ can never be counted out, but I would say Cain is a 3 to 1 or 2 to 1 favorite... IMO ofc ;)
The fight is pretty even overall, my only question is Mir's consistency. Sometimes he looks like a champ but others he looks top twenty......and we've only seen Cain in trouble once so it's hard to not put him as the favorite in most people's eyes. Should be a great fight either way.
5 to 1 ill put a few pound on that mir has heavy hands and a great bjj game i have always liked robert drysdale as a bjj coach he has a great system and mir is his prize student but at the same time i think cain has better wrestling by a long way and his cardio is incredible so over 3 rounds with the pace cain can push i think he should be the favourite but not 5 to 1
Agreed with Daniel
But what happens if on May 26th, the best Cain Velasquez enters the cage, I for one, would not want to stand in Frank Mir shoes. Rest assured, this is one fight fan who is betting the house on Cain Velasquez...lol
guys mir is going to lose this fight even if he gets past the first he will be a bloody mess cain will toy with him, the only way mir wins this is by breaking a limb, other than that he will take a beating
As much as I admire Mr Mir and his tenacity Velasquez manhandled Lesnar, whose wrestling as we know is top notch, Frank will be no problem for Cain. That coupled with Cain's crazy power and Franks suspect chin (remember he only submitted big nog bc Nog made the mistake of going for the Guillotine when he had Frank rocked) will mean Frank will need 2 things to defeat Cain.
1) A step up in his Cardio (which is never great)
2) And the mother of all sneaky game plans (like clinching in the first and pulling guard)
ok three things
3) a shit load of luck
Good Luck Frank!
KR
What about Frank's power and Cain's somewhat suspect chin?
Mir has been knocked out cold 5 times, Cain 1 time. Mir is not JDS. And in prime Cain is not an out of prime Nog (whom actually dominated the stand up).
I don't see how a guy whom had problems with Nog could give Cain problems. Only way I see Mir win is if gets a good solid sub. Doubt Cain will let him though. But you never know. I never thought JDS would knock out Cain that fast.
Mir has been knocked out cold once, by carwin. the others were tko's, as he wasnt unconscious
Mir beat Lesnar first and could have crippled him for life.
Mir needs to fight with confidence and a sense of urgency. He lost to Carwin because he was resting on the cage, conserving his energy--believing he was in no danger. Recently, he started slowly with Big Nog, getting rocked because he was fighting the fight he imagined instead the one right in front of his eyes. He did well to turn it around and get the win, but when will the lesson be learned?
When he fought Big Nog the first time, his striking was excellent. He had a long, shallow uppercut that kept getting through to Nog's chin. That is the striking he needs to bring for Cain.
The thing is I believe it was the other way around. Nog was a shallow of himself in the first fight were he was outboxed by Mir which in all honesty showcased a much better and improved striking. On the second fight, Nog completely outboxed Mir and was on route to a TKO victory when Mir used his brilliant BJJ to turn things around and win in spectacular fashion. Whats does that tells me? Mir has improved all around - hes bigger, more dangerous on his feet and his BJJ seems sharper than ever! IMO, if he wins it will be by submission, I dont see him outworking Cain for a Decision or Outboxing for a KO/TKO. Ofc this is MMA and as such anything can happen!
Now Cain is a completely different animal than Nog. People seem to forget that prior to being defeated by JDS, he seemed almost virtually unstoppable! To all thous that say he has a weak chin: The guys nickname is the Terminator. the guy just keeps on coming. He was dropped against Congo and still managed to win all 3 rounds. And please dont delusion yourself in thinking that Mir hits as hard as a knock out artist of the likes of JDS... Mir is big but he does not have JDS technique, not even close. Again look at Mir record or even his fights and take a close look at his striking. It has improved and seems much better but his on a different level thank JDS, way different... If JDS hits you like he hit Cain, your going lights out... unless your Big Country ofc :D
Just saying, but JDS knocking Cain out wasn't a matter of overwhelming power. He was throwing an overhand trying to connect with Cain's chin or temple and instead tagged him directly on the ear, rupturing his eardrum. Cain commented right after the fight that when he got hit it immediately disrupted his equilibrium and he couldn't find his feet. Anyone in the division could have finished him off at that point.
I suppose you could make the argument that JDS was intentionally trying to punch him in the ear, but I seriously doubt it. In any case, I don't doubt that the Mir who knocked Kongo across the damn cage and KTFOed Cro Cop with a K-1 legal knee lacks the power to put Cain away if he connects solidly, and I don't think the ground will be a good place for Cain even if he gets rocked. This fight might very well come down to who lands first.