The 32 year old American fighter Jon Fitch is 6ft1in and 170lbs. He was a division 1 NCAA wrestler and holds a blck belt in Guerilla Jiu-Jitsu. He fights out of The American Kickboxing Academy and holds a record of 21-3 1NC(4ko,5sub). Fitch fights in the orthodox stance.
The younger fighter, at 26, is Brazilian Thiago Alves who is 5ft9in and weighs in at 170lbs. Alves holds a purple belt in BJJ and is well versed in Muay Thai. He fights out of American Top Team and holds a record of 16-6(10ko,1sub). Alves fights in the orthodox stance.
Now my fight breakdowns are predictions on how I think the fight will go based on each fighters training history, records (KO or submission wins and losses and how many fights) and on how I feel the styles will contrast. Please don't bet the farm on what I write and feel free to comment or tweet me as these articles are only for Lowkick.com
So on to the game plans. I feel that Fitch is going to want to use his ground skills on Alves. As we saw in the first fight between the two at UFN 5 where Fitch dominated Alves on the ground in the first round, continuing to do so in the 2nd and when Alves got on top Fitch used a powerful up kick to knock Alves almost out cold. Fitch is good with the hands but I feel he will want to use his submission skills more in this fight. He has finished five of his opponents by submission and has great wrestling skills but I think Alves has the better stand up.
So its on to Alves. I feel that after the first meeting at UFN 5 Thiago will want to utilize his stand up skills which have seen him knock out such fighters as Matt Hughes, Karo Parisyan, Chris Lytle(TKO from cut) and Tony Desouza among others. I don't think he will want to be involved in a ground war with Fitch as we saw that he was obviously dominated in their last meeting. Alves has a KO record of 10 from 16 wins but I do think he will have worked on takedown defense and he does have a purple belt in BJJ to help if he needs it. So expect leg kicks and sharp Muay Thai work from 'The Pitbull'.
How I feel the styles may contrast is that we will have a wrestler vs striker match. Although I wouldn't be surprised if Fitch has worked a lot on his stand up game for this one. I expect heavy striking from Alves who has promised a knockout and big takedown attempts and ground and pound from Fitch.
Now for the prediction.
Round 1-The two fighters will come out very fast with Fitch using a long jab to try and keep Alves at bay. While Alves will be throwing heavy kicks to the leg and body. Fitch has a good chin and manages to withstand some big head shots as he shoots and takes Alves to the mat. I think he will smother Alves on the ground landing punishing elbows and body shots and not letting his man up. Staying busy Fitch will keep the fight on the ground until the round is up.
Round 2-Alves knows he lost the last round and is determined to keep this round on the feet. He stuffs his opponents take down attempts and lands big hooks to the head and body, rocking Fitch and forcing him backwards to the cage. Fitch is experienced though and gets off with some good straight punches, reminding Alves that he is not the only man with punching power in the cage. The two men trade and as the round draws to a close Fitch lands a double leg takedown but its not enough to win the round. The two men end the round and its all square before the third.
Round 3-I expect Alves to give his all in this round. trying all he can to knock Fitch out. Jon is shaken but still moving well and clinches to land some good knees to the body. Alves explodes over the top of Jon's jab with a big right hand and Fitch is down. Thiago jumps on him to end the fight but gets pulled into his guard. Off his back Fitch is very busy and manages to sweep Alves and reverse position. Now he has Alves where he wants him, he lands some big shots to the head as Alves balls up and gives his back. Fitch seizes the opportunity and sinks in a rear naked choke. With the choke and a body triangle on Alves has no choice but to tap before he passes out. Fitch to win by 3rd round submission.
Some info sourced from Wiki. All comparisons and predictions are original.