CompuStrike: UFC 127 by the Numbers
Posted on March 1, 2011, 02:22 AM by Ryan VenturaUFC 127 last Saturday in Sydney, Australia provided us with a night of solid MMA action and controversial finishes. Thanks to our friends at Compustrike, because of them we were able to follow every strike, every takedown, and every submission attempt. Let’s take a closer at the stats from UFC 127.
BJ Penn Vs. Jon Fitch (Majority Draw):
-BJ Penn was dominated the whole fight. Jon Fitch landed 214/255 (84%) compared to BJ’s 34/48 (71%), with 178 of those strikes being landed on the ground. 62 of Fitch’s strikes were significant power strikes.
-Both BJ and Fitch are even in the takedown department, both attempted 3 takedowns, and both were successful scoring 2.
-The only stat Penn beat Fitch in was submission attempts and getting dominate position. In the first round BJ attempted a Rear Naked Choke and managed to get into a dominate position in rounds one and two. In round 3, Fitch outstruck Penn 134-0
-Unfortunately, we all know the outcome of this fight. Even though Jon Fitch practically controlled BJ Penn in all aspects of the game, it just wasn't enough to get the win, and in my opinion the numbers don't lie. BJ Penn should have lost this fight and Jon Fitch deserved to get the victory.
Michael Bisping (Win - 2nd Round TKO) Vs. Jorge Rivera:
-Michael Bisping even before he hit Jorge Rivera with the illegal blow, was winning the fight. Not only did he out strike Rivera 15/56 (27%) compared to 8/37 (22%), Bisping managed to take him down 3/5 times. Once Jorge Rivera got rocked with the big illegal knee, Bisping took advantage in the second round.
-In round two it was very clear Jorge Rivera's head was in a different world. Michael Bisping absolutely demolished him with 30/52 (58%) strikes compared to Rivera's 3/15 (20%). 17 of those 30 landed shots in the second round were big power shots that eventually ended the fight for Rivera.
George Sotiropoulous Vs. Dennis Siver (Win- Unanimous Decision) :
-The main story of this fight was the neutralization of George Sotiropoulous' 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu. 14:42 was spent on the feet, while a mere 0:18 was spent on the ground the whole fight! Obviously when the fight is left standing, Dennis Siver had the advantage big time. He used his world class MMA striking to his advantage and put on a clinic against Sotiropoulous.
-A very interesting note to point out, George Sotiropoulous attempted 10 takedowns and not once was he able to take down Dennis Siver.
-Siver landed a total of 82/245 (36%) strikes that fight, 52 of them were power shots. George only managed to land 49/188 (26%).
-Sotiropoulous was rocked twice in the first round and during that time Siver even managed to get dominate position once.
Nick Ring (Win – Unanimous Decision) Vs. Riki Fukuda:
-In all aspects of the fight, Nick Ring was outclassed by UFC newcomer Riki Fukuda. Riki landed 62/135 (46%) compared to Ring's 40/120 (33%). 26 of Riki's shots were power shots and 21 of those shots were landed on the ground.
-Riki successfully managed to takedown Nick Ring 5/8 as well. 9:59 of the fight was spent standing and only 5:01 was spent on the ground.
Special thanks to Compustrike for the numbers. You've seen the stats, you've seen the facts, now you be the judge! Go to compustrike.com for more stats from UFC 127 and most major Mixed Martial Arts events.
Image Source: Heavy MMA
Comments
Fitch dominated bj throughout the whole fight? Im sorry but what fight did you watch, dana white himself had pointed out that tapping someone on your cheek and ontop your head over and over does about as much as your little sister hitting you over and over, sure it looks good in numbers, but lets be real. Bj won round 1,2 and if you were able to hop off the cavemans hard one and were half a good author yourself you would realise that... but I geuss the 2 professional judges that scored the bout are irrelevent?
I'm not on the caveman's hard one, I just call it how I see it. And the Compustrike numbers tell me exactly what I was thinking.
So the computer told you how you were thinking? That is a terrifying proposition...and frankly it underscores the very argument against using computers as judges. If we only look at the empirical data we lose the qualitative reality of fighting. Fighting is not a computer program, it is not a sanitized game of numbers. It is a FIGHT. When judges start to score "by the numbers" fighting will be reduced to the level of an irrelevant game of tactical pussyfooting rather than a primal experience of physical mastery.
@Ryan Ventura
I agree with a lot of what you say but everything you have posted regarding this fight is wrong. First, compustrike is horribly inaccurate in a lot of their analysis. Second, and this is the big one, most of the strikes landed by Fitch happened in the third round. All those numbers mean is that Fitch dominated the third round for a score of 10-8. There were two other rounds to the fight and Fitch was no where near dominant in those. BJ easily won the other two rounds 10-9. Now if that had been an actual fight, I would agree with you that Fitch won. The fact is though that MMA is not actual combat, it is a sport that gets as close to actual combat as possible. That being the case, when a fight doesn't get finished we have to go to the score cards and guess what, it was a draw because each round gets judged independently and BJ won two of them.
They also score by damage and BJ had a couple broozes while Fitch was blleding heavily the whole fight. (nose)
You`re contradicting yourself though, you say he dominated bj the whole fight.. when more than 82 percent of those strikes came in the 3rd round alone.. and bj wasnt in danger of being finished at all. He was even punching up at one point
That fight didnt go as you and compustrike said it did i saw BJ dominate the first imo won the second because of his takedown and then the dominant positions then Fitch might as well poked him for the 3rd cuz even tho BJs face was bruised he didnt look ****ed up like he shouldve...
the president of the ufc thought BJ won
@TheMMAfan
I couldn't agree with you more. It's mind boggling how Fitch has been on such a horrible streak of boringness. He actually lost the first 2 to a smaller guy and gave up his back. I do not see Fitch beating GSP.. No way is hell.
So are you saying that landing 178 clean strikes on the ground ain't worth anything? I love BJ Penn, but I know a man who is defeated when I see it.
Im almost sure more than 178 strikes on the ground were landed in the 3rd round but thats just the 3rd round they count only in the 3rd, not the first, not the 2nd, and you cant throw BJ's cardio in the 3rd in to consideration because hes a 155er that was fighting a 170er and was put on the ground and sat on him the 3rd round just laying punches and elbows but those 1st 2 rounds BJ did extremely well and did the sub attempts and had dominant positions though out them.
The 178 strikes landed were only "clean" in the sense that they were legal. About 3/4 of those "clean" strikes were glancing blows and pillow punches, just like in the Silva vs Sonnen fight.
Compustrike and FightMetric are programmed by humans, so they are just as flawed. Remember, this is the same Compustrike that said Silva didn't knockdown Vitor in their fight. Someone ended up having to manually change that. I wouldn't put my stock in those numbers if I were you.
I agree completely with what you guys had to say, at no point was bj about to be finished.. or rocked.. he was even punching up at one point
Numbers never tell the whole story
They tell a big part of the story and as far as I'm concerned I witnessed BJ Penn get laid on for practically two rounds getting elbowed in the face numerous times.
Mate, I study mathematics, and statistics is one of my favorite fields. Now I don't want to go into the details here, how one number called outlier can screw up all your calculations, bet please let's come back to layman's level and analyze this: if he really landed 62 significant power strikes BJ's face should resemble new yorker pizza. But guess what? If there was a 4th round he wouldn't have a problem getting in to it. I scored this match 29-28 Penn but I agree with notion that last round was 10-8 Fitch, so basically judges were spot on.
Good call on the stats. The first thing I learned in stats (my degree is in psych) was that you can make stats say almost anything you want them to.
Bilhal an outlier cant mess up all your calculations when you are talking about one 3 round fight because and outlier cannot form out of the data of a three round fight. statistics isn't one of my favorite fields or anything but i know that much.
the result seemed pretty perfect in my mind. there's no way Fitch should have been given a loss for the fight, but i didn't want to see B.J. lose 3 out of his last 4 fights. perfect Goldilocks Zone for me.
Look, Johnn Fitch should have gone for the finish and he didn't....
BJ won the first 2 rnds and Fitch the 3rd round.
Compustrike is good but it misses on the context that fights are decided over rnds. If you win 2 rnds but lose the 3rd. The you should win IF you didn't actually get totally dominated and suffers a lot of damage. BJ didn't, he got controlled and frankly his cardio should have been way better as always...
The first round of Edgard vs Maynard and Lesnar vs Carwin was a 10-8rnd, how can you then agree that the 3rd round of BJ vs Fitch was a 10-8rnd?!
Do you find that Fitch was AS dominating in that rnd as Carwin was against Lesnar or Maynard vs Carwin??!
Listen, i like Fitch. I think he is an animal, but the complaint i have against him is that he doesnt try to finish. People complain about GSP, but he actually tries to pass guard to get a more dominate position to be able to finish. Tries submission and postures up to finish the fight.
Fitch didn't posture up so that he could strike with more power, why didn't he do it??
Because that would have given BJ a chance to go for submissions or a sweep or to simple stand up. He did it to simply control him on the ground.... Yes, he was punching all the time, but he wasn't really loading up, you have to posture up to do that. He was content with controlling BJ and throwing just enough punches so that the ref don't stand the up.
There is a great need for more consistency in the judging of WHAT a 10-8rnd actually is!!!!!!
IF Lesnar vs Carwin and Edgard vs Maynard was 10-8 rnds, then THIS 3 rnd shouldn't have been. As simple as that really...
We should be able to trust the judgement of the people who are judging these fights. It shouldn't be that differnet from fight to fight WHAT actually is a 10-rnd, HOW dominating a fighter has to be, how much damage he actually inflicts OR HOW dominating positions he has and how many submissions attempts and damage infilicted to set them up....
Read my post further down.
100 punches doesn't mean that u try to finish the fight.
Posturing up and throwing power shots is trying to finish the fight.
Just throwing punches doesn't mean that u try to finish, posturing up and putting power behind the punches means that you are trying to finish the fight. Just as putting power the punches when you are standing up means that you are trying to knock him out....
Yeah, thats ok, we don't have to agree on everything:D
For the third he was dominated but the first round BJ won and the second was close could of gone either way....but BJ dominated for the whole fight I dont think so
This is why fighters need to stop having fights go to a decision. All this darn controversy.
well. i did not even see this fight yet, so sure, i have no room to speak , but from what i have read...and heard from people that saw it, reguardless of points, etc....BJ was well on his way to losing that fight. Probably would have gone the same route his bout did with GSP, if there was 1 more round. Really , a sub attempt, although viewed highly, is really no more than a takedown attempt....someone being fast enough to hop on your back and try to choke you out...while ...sure , there is style , speed, and technique involved...its useless, if not completed..basically it says, bj was quick enough to hop on fitch's back and put him in a choke...but...was not strong enough or skilled enough to finish it...so he was quick ...thats it. dont get me wrong...fitch is boring to watch also...but in reality, if that fight were to have continued...BJ's corner would have thrown in the towel again...and/or fitch could have possibly got a finish . Seriously , submissions, even though judges see it however they do, are much like Yoda says..., haha...try not...do or do not, there is no try. either you submit the guy , or you dont...BJ has the skill to submit, sure, but fitch has the skill to resist and did, so that nullifies the sub attempt. It was really an endurance race and in the end the stronger survived. I would much rather see a finish via sub or K.O...but i think we all knew that fight was not gonna go that way, and in the end, I am not a huge fan of either guy...but only nut huggers would cliing to the idea that BJ would be considered the winner, when he could not finish and at the end...it was turning way 1 sided...another round is all that was needed to put him away.
Quite a novel of strong opinions considering you didn't even see the fight. I really hope you don't vote.
forgot to say...it takes more skill and heart to resist a good sub attempt than it does to put one on.
This fight shows us that we need to start seeing 5 round main events. Can't be anymore obvious, just how is it decided on which fights will be 5 rounds?
I have mixed feelings about CompuStrike.
Remember, it is not a computer but a group of humans who are counting the number of strikes and evaluating them as 'significant' or not--then inputing those numbers into the software for a summation.
As Mark Twain said, there are lies, damn lies, and statisitics.
I work with statistics regularly, and one thing that always must be remembered is that statistics must be interpreted and weighted by human judgement--otherwise, they are meaningless raw data.
By the 10 point must system, I would say the draw was a good decision. Judging the whole fight, I would say Fitch clearly won.
I vehemently disagree with the comments which claim Fitch was not trying to finish in the 3rd round, or that his strikes were 'pillow punches' judging by the visible damage to BJ.
Some fighters do not show damage as much as others, so judging by the visible effects is not accurate. For example, post-fight, Fitch and Alves looked like they went through a meat grinder after fighting GSP, but Penn, even though he had to quit, did not visibly appear to be that beaten up--but he was, otherwise he would not have quit.
I like Fitch, but the bottom line is that he needed a decisive win in order to advance his case for a title shot--and this fight did not do that.
No, he did not try to finish.
To get some real power behind your shots, when you are in somebodys guard you have to posture up...
Fitch didn't try to do that, did he damage BJ, yes he did...
But he did most certaintly go for the finish, some people have amazing power even when non-postured in somebodys open/closed guard but Fitch isn't one of them.
I agree that if the fight would have been 5 rnds then he would have finished BJ, and i assure you that the moment he would have stunned stunned BJ then he would have gone for the finnish and postured up.
He didn't posture up because that means that he opens up for submissions from BJ, sweeps or BJ simply standing up.
He remained top heavy on BJ to CONTROL him, yet i don't deny that he could have done it if he tried....
He didn't, thats the difference and claiming that you try to finish somebody when you don't even posture up even ONCE to get some more power in the shots to finish the fight.
Sorry, it should be: But he did most certainly NOT go for the finish...
And read the rest above:)
main events 5 rounds, no problem with the commissions and if there are a lot of decisions at an event they can just show less 'filler' stuff like when they show some of the prelims or advertise events for ages even though they're 4 months away :|
I love paying attention to compustrike during the fights, and think it is a fun element to mma, but for you to use these statistics and then come out of no where to get your name heard with an opinion, firing up an mma community is just petty. keep your oppinions to yourself, or post on sherdog. your thing is entertaining people with stats, so stick to that.
I was told to provide not only stats but personal analysis. Seriously I'm loving this discussion and debate. You guys really are the most vocal people around.
http://c4.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images02/77/l_f3f18359b9cc4342b108233d215eaf9b.jpg
Having a lot of vocal people is the reason I like this website so much.
well at least the people in Hawaii arent mourning for BJ. The only mourning to be had is for Fitch who only wishes that he had just one or two more rounds to prove that he won the fight.
dudeeee enoughhh. fitch dominated nobody. ryan_ventura idk who taught you about grappling or MMA but you have NO IDEA what the term "being dominated" means.
no that wasn a 10-8 round. you tell me a 10-8 round where a guy couldnt even get out of someones guard and advance position nvm actually do significant damage to hurt somebody. your on drugs if you think that was a 10-8, this isnt boxing its a 3 round fight to get a 10-8 you have to DOMINATE the round in every aspect of the game and come extremely close to finishing the fight. THAT is a 10-8 round. fitch is on drugs he doesnt deserve a title shot and he needs to stop whining.
compustrike is garbage. i forgot that computers cna judge fights better then people?
if you want a peek at the credibility of compustrike go look up arlovski vs kharitov where computsrike said kharitov was outstriking arlovski before the KO... lmao compustrike is straight trash.
im sorry but john fitch getting a take down then not being able to pass penns guard and landing non power gnp is not enough for a 10-8. your telling me that fitch dominated penn in that round just as other 10-8 rounds? like maynard and edgar in rd1, gsp vs serra 2 rd1, carwin lesnar rd 1.
but we both know you are kidding yourself. John Fitch is a fantastic fighter no doubt, but he lost that fight.